Tag Archives: Election 2012

Live Blogging Election 2012

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I’ll be jotting notes here. Feel free to jot notes in the comments.

Bernie Sanders re-elected

6:22 PM Central: Virginia reporting good numbers for Obama. Larger turnouts than 2008 in VA.

6:54 PM Central: Senate: 30 DEM seats called, 37 GOP seats.

Leaving the polling place today, there was a couple behind me. She said, “Well, that didn’t take long.” He said “And it was easy. I have a system.” “What’s the system.” “If the person is an incumbent, I don’t vote for them.”

Then, me, in my head “… idiot …”

More money spent this year in Minnesota’s 8th district than in all races in that district ever to date, combined, including mayorial, county, and EVERYTHING and we are only slightly exaggerating. That’s up on the Iron Range.

West Va called for Romney

Republicans lose about 1.7% of the vote every presidential election year because they are the white party and that’s the loss rate of whiteosity in the US.

Current Electoral Vote: Romney 153, Obama 123

Called Races:
OBAMA 79
Vermont CALLED Obama
DC CALLED Obama
Illinous CALLED Obama
Maine CALLED Obama
Maryland CALLED Obama
Massachusetts CALLED Obama
Connecticut CALLED Obama
Delaware CALLED Obama
Rhode Island CALLED Obama
New Jersey CALLED Obama
New York CALLED Obama
Michigan CALLED Obama

ROMNEY 82
Georgia CALLED Romney
Indiana CALLED Romney
Kentucky CALLED Romney
South Carolina CALLED Romney
West Virginia CALLED Romney
Oklahoma CALLED Romney
Alabama CALLED Romney
Mississippi CALLED Romney
Tennessee CALLED Romney
Arkansas CALLED Romney
Texas CALLED Romney
Lousiana CALLED Romney
Kansas CALLED Romney
Nebraska CALLED Romney
North Dakota CALLED Romney
South Dakota CALLED Romney
Wyoming CALLED Romney

Leaning/Trending:
Florida: Leaning Obama
New Hampshire: Leaning Obama
North Carolina Obama
Ohio, less than one percent, Romney doing STRONG
Virginia, Romney ahead

I actually don’t like states being called at 1 percent or less of the vote counted, even if those states are almost certainly going to go a certain way. Makes a mockery of the system. I suppose not doing it would make a mockery of statistics.

Which reminds me of an argument I had today with a young man who does not understand data or statistics or inference or anything. Imagine the following situation: My neighbor goes out into his yard every now and then and mows his lawn. I make the assertion to you that I believe that he does so when he thinks his grass is too long and needs to be cut. Now, here’s the question: What is the chance that it is true that he really does believe his grass is too long and this is what motivates him to cut it? Now, alternatively, I tell you that I went over to him while he was mowing the lawn and asked him why he was doing that. I report to you that he said “The grass got long, that’s why I’m cutting it.”

Now, here’s the question: Do you think he belived the grass was too long in either of these cases? How mush stock would you put in my guess regarding his motivations, vs my reporting to you what he said his motivation was.

The young man insisted that my guess as to my neighbor’s motivation was totally unusable as data, there were thousands of alternative reasons he might be mowing his lawn, and my assumption that he is cutting his lawn becauase he believes it to be too long is “confirmation bias.” Meanwhile, he claimed that reporting the man’s answer to the question about his motivation was solid unquestioned data about his motivations. What do you think?

OK, back to Election 2012!

7:00 PM Central PBS coverage is starting.

15 states are closed. I’ll put the new results above

PBS says they have a very nifty “multichannel” live stream thingie. But, everhone on the planet just tried to access it and it appears to be dead.

BIGGEST current news, Virginia extended poll hours, turnout HUGE, reporting delayed.
OTHER BIGGEST CURRENT NEWS Ohio early voting will be reported at 8:30 local

2 out of 5 Romney supporters, generally, in the polling over recent months supported Romney mainly to beat Obama (the black guy) not to support Romney.

7:20 PM CENTRAL Bill Nelson won in Florida for Senate, the Republicans were hoping to take that but didn’t. But overall the Senate race data isn’t interesting yet. The guy running against Nelson did not do well because he did not run well. (Nelson had replaced Katherine Harris, if you want to beak out in a cold sweat)

7:40 Chris Murphey, Dem, beats McMahon in Connecticut for Senate. That was a competitive race. That was earlier Lieberman’s seat, so this is sort of a Dem pickup.

Exit polls in Ohio: People favor auto bailout.

Virginia: Voter turnout is AMAZING … some people waited five hours to vote. The board of election had delayed release of results. People are still in line nearly two hours after polls closed. Maybe.

8:00 North Carolina, too close to call, could go either way. Romney always claimed a lock, maybe not.

8:10 PM Central … Missouri Senate … Remember Senator Legitimate Rape Guy Aitkin? Hmmm. thought there was going to be some reporting on that but I’m only seeing wild speculation. This might force me to tell you my one Missouri story….. but prob. not.

Competitive Penn Dem Senate race, Republicans had hopes for, goes Dem.

CBS News projects that the Republicans will maintain control of the house.

Obama gets Pennsylvania!!!

8:25 PM

Senate races: Pennsylvania, Bob Casey returns
Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Dem incumbant
Amy Klobuchar wins by a huge landside
Kirsten Gillibrand wins, incumbant Dem.
Ted Teapartier Kruz Republican, new senator, replacing a Democratic woman, I think.

8:30
Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio.

8:40PM Central
Romney must get some combination of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. I like maybe all three. Not looking good. He’s still winning, though.

Elizabeth Warren wins in Massachusetts. FUCK YAH TEDDY!!!!

Joe Kennedy III to the HOuse from Mass

Romney lost in MA, where he was gov. He lost in Mich, where he is from and his dad was gov.Now, he lost NH, home of his vacation home

And now, for some state and local results… maybe …

Oh never mind. No results.

9:55 We’ve got about 13 percent of the votes counted in Minnesota with a lot of conservative counties not represented yet, but the two constitutional amendments … gay marriage and voter ID … are not doing well. They are both showing a less than 50% result (needed to be passed) and are actually being voted down by a majority that is voting “No”

Also, North Carolina just called for Romney

Obama wins California, Hawaii,

10:14: Obama has been called as winner by CNN. On PBS, however, they won’t interrupt an interview with R.E. to celebrate. Strange.

Romney did "win" the debate

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Romney did three things at the debate:

1) He totally randomized his policies, thus putting into effect an excellent version of the Chewbaca Defense;

2) He made up his own rules, forcing Obama to follow them and embarrassing PBS and Jim Lehrer; and

3) He made a bunch of independents giddy, so when the post-debate polls were carried out, he ends up winning or being statistically even in key swing states.

Today’s polls are worrisome unless you hate America and The Earth. Obama is up only 2 points across the board, and Romney has pulled ahead (though statistically even) in Florida and Virginia. Ohio has become a toss-up.

Future debates might be different. For one thing, the Obama camp will probably have a better strategy. Both Obama and Lerher were blind sided by Romney’s approach. There will be a different moderator for the next debate, CNN’s Candy Crowley. I know nothing about her, but I imagine she watched the first debate and is already trying to figure out how to contain Mr. Priv. So, a second factor will be both the moderator and the approach taken. Third, the next debate will be in a town meeting format. Obama always does well with real people, and Romney tends to say the wrong things when confronted with real humans, often demonstrating his well known disdain. Also, this will be a “crowd” that the Romney camp will have less than the usual control over.

Over the days before the first debate, almost everybody seemed to have decided that the election was already over.

The election is not already over.

Who will win the US House of Representatives?

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There are a number of US HOuse of Representative races that are too close to call at this point. Although the house is currently predicted to go Republican, which would be a shame, there are not a lot of current data to predict this. Given the potential strength of Mitt Romney’s coattails going in one direction, and President Obama’s going in the other, it is possible that a large share of the toss-up states will end up in the Blue column. Here are a few of the currently contested races. Continue reading Who will win the US House of Representatives? →

Is Bachmann Sticking With Her Muslim Brotherhood Story?

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A GOP PAC has produced a ridiculous ad supporting Michele Bachmann for re-election to Congress representing Minnesota’s 6th District. You’ll remember that Bachmann made national news when she declared that a senior aide to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Minnesota 5th District Congressman Keith Ellison were plants inserted into high places in the United States Government by the shady organization known as the Muslim Brotherhood. At that time, Democratic Party (DFL) 6th District candidate, Jim Graves, joined the chorus of sensible voices pointing out that Bachmann’s comments were incorrect and inappropriate. The ad clearly states that not only was Bachmann not wrong, but that the same organization that planted these Muslim Manchurian Candidates into the US political system was responsible for the unrest in the Middle East. Ironically, while the cause of this unrest is complicated, that unrest appears to be in part due to the irresponsible prodding of extremist Islamic groups in the Middle East with anti-Muslim rhetoric, that prodding seemingly intended to create an ant-Obama “October Surprise” (in September). Here is the ad:

This ad comes at a time when Jim Graves has been shown in polls to be statistically even with (but a couple of points by count behind) Bachmann. So far, Bachmann has been relatively silent, which was probably a good move for her because she seems to have a hard time not spewing Crazy Talk when she doesn’t remain silent. This move by the GOP PAC, to underscore Bachmann’s crazy, is probably a good thing for the Graves campaign.

Notice that in the ad, they try very hard to get a picture of Graves, who is a calm, mild mannered, reasonable, thoughtful person, to have a crazy Bachmann-like look in his eyes, while at the same time making Bachmann not look so crazy. Unfortunately for the Bachmann campaign, it is a little late for that.

Michele Bachmann Could Be Replaced

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For various reasons, it has been difficult for the Democrats in Minnesota (called “DFLers”) to unseat Republican Congressional Representative Michele Bachmann. This has been partly because the candidates put up were not properly selected (probably) and partly because the people in her district simply liked her. Personally, I think her district started to like her less before the last Congressional election but supported her anyway because of her celebrate. But I have another theory as well, which is that the Tea Party is done. Out of date. No longer relevant. Michele Bachmann’s district’s voters have tired of the Tea Party and Michele Bachmann is the Tea Party.

And there are polls to indicate that this may be the case. Jim Graves, Michele Bachmann’s DFL opponent in the Sixth District Race in Minnesota, is creeeping closer and closer to Bachmann’s numbers, and it is possible that this race could even up over the next few weeks.

From the Minnesota Progressive Project:

A new poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan indicates that Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is more vulnerable to her Democratic challenger than previously believed.
The polling firm surveyed about registered likely voters in the Sixth Congressional district of Minnesota from August 29 to August 30. The results indicate only forty per cent of the voters in Bachmann’s politically conservative district rate her performance “Excellent/Good.” Thirty-five per cent of those polled rate Bachmann’s performance “Poor.”

Asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, forty-eight per cent of those polled indicated that they would vote for incumbent Bachmann and forty-six per cent indicates they would vote for her opponent Jim Graves, a newcomer to politics.

Minnesota Political expert Bill Pendergast gives his analysis of this here. That site is getting a lot of sudden attention so it may take a moment to load, give it time. Continue reading Michele Bachmann Could Be Replaced →

I am Iowan. I am barn.

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I’ve known very few real Iowans. I know people who live there now but are from the Twin Cities, but I’ve only met a handful of native Iowans. One of them is a dear friend, most are only vague acquaintances. Six of them were landlubbing pirates of no value to humanity whatsoever.1 But I’m sure Iowans are mostly wonderful people who are well intentioned, hard working, intelligent, and are just as good as anyone else. Nonetheless, states have personalities and personalities have reputations, and people who live in states contribute to making those personalities and reputations. And for that reason I’m sure I’ll be forgiven for what I’m about to say. About your stupid state.
Continue reading I am Iowan. I am barn. →

Exorcisms are Affordable because of Michele Bachmann’s Generosity

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This is not new but it is current. In 2009, Michele Bachmann donated several thousand dollars to an organization that carries out exorcisms mainly on teenagers who have bee posessed by multiple demons. This has become increasingly popular among Christians … the idea that demons posses people on a regular basis. Right now, at least three of the possible contenders for the Republican presidential nomination: Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin have been endorsed by, or raised funds for, or have promoted or are actively promoted ministers and ministries that are established on the basis of demonic posession and exorcism.

Have a look at this recently reposted item by Bruce Wilson at Talk to Action. While you’re over there you might want to lok at Jack Hayford Backs Odd Theory: Sex With a Demon Drove Down Japanese Stock Market, which relates to my post yesterday.

Hat tip Glenn Burke.

Michele Bachmann promises to be a clown and kill teenagers

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… And she still doesn’t know where anything is …

Michele Bachmann promised, in an interview associated with her announcement to run for President of the United States (POTUS) and Effective Leader of the Free World (ELFW), that she would become a professional clown and murder dozens of teenage boys and young men.

Or, perhaps, she is just confused …
Continue reading Michele Bachmann promises to be a clown and kill teenagers →

Michele Bachmann for President II

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As you know, our own Minnesota Congressman Michele Bachmann is officially running for president. I wonder what it would be like to have the President of the United States of America, like when she goes home to visit her family for Thanksgiving or the Fourth of July or whatever, and all these limos and choppers are driving all over the place in Stillwater! Maybe they better upgrade that liftbridge after all!

Anyway, in celebration of having one of our own ready, willing and on the way to possibly becoming the Leader of the Free World and all, I’m reposting a selection of the well over 100 items already posted on this blog about Michele Bachmann. Here’s the second installment:

Continue reading Michele Bachmann for President II →

Michele Bachmann for President I

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Michele Bachmann is my home-girl. has lived in a nearby town for years, represented a nearby community in the Minnesota State Senate. I had one of her kids in my class at the U. And she’s the US Congressperson for the district that is just a few short blocks from where I live now .

In many ways, therefore, she has been a part of my life for a long time. And, now that Michele is officially running for President of the United States of America, I thought I’d repost some of the material on this blog written about her or her activities.

Instead of producing a new copy of each post, I’ll group them into a smaller number of posts for your convenience. This is the first one.
Continue reading Michele Bachmann for President I →