To date, this has been a relatively tranquil Atlantic Hurricane season. That is not unusual. It is typical for few named storms to form prior to August 1st, as shown in this graphic from Wikipedia:
The National Hurricane Center tells us that “A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week.”
The next named storm will be called Danielle. Will it be this disturbance? Yes. Or no. We don’t know. Stay tuned.
Although it is too early to say much, about half the known models now put this storm (as yet unnamed) strengthening to hurricane level, possibly reaching or going beyond Category 2. Most of the models also having it brushing the coast of South America and possibly making landfall in Central America, which is a bit odd.
There is a disturbance in the Atlantic.
It is off the coast of West Africa, and heading due west. It is expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm level and will probably be a named storm, but it may or may not become a hurricane. Then, early estimates suggest it will weaken. That does not rule out the possibility that this storm would then seed another cycle of strengthening, but it is way too early to say.
Sorry to intrude, and this is probably not a very important update, but here goes: There is nothing of interest happening in the Atlantic Basis with respect to tropical storms.
But, there is a new storm forming in the Eastern Pacific, and you know what happened last time that occurred! (See below.)
This newly forming storm is likely to become a tropical storm, but not likely to become a hurricane. It is likely to not land ashore, but it could bring some stormy conditions to Mexico’s pacific coast or along Central America’s coast. It is highly unlikely to make the transition to an Atlantic storm.
So, really, this wasn’t very interesting. Sorry.
Oh yea of little faith, shut up!
Alex Lives! Impressive and important Eastern Pacific Hurricane Agatha ran hard into Mexico, lingered as a giant wet spot over the land, emerged in along the Gulf/Caribbean border, rained on Florida, exited to the Atlantic, all the time being unnamable, but then got itself organized to become Alex the Tropical Cyclone!
So, one storm system, two names, each the first in it’s own basin for the year.
Alex nee Agatha will move across the mid Atlantic from west to east, menacing Bermuda, as a tropical storm, until it turns back into a tropical depression about a third of the way to Europe. There is a tropical storm warning in effect for Bermuda.
It turns out that the storm we have watching has failed to become sufficiently organized to be deemed a tropical cyclone. It remains a tropical storm, with several different centers, and is not expected to become a named storm. It will rain all over Florida, but will not exhibit the remarkable behavior of being the first of the season hurricane, or even just a named storm, in first the Eastern Pacific then the Atlantic.
This is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2022.
Nee Agatha is now heading towards the Atlantic the hard way, through the Yucatan. This is probably not good for the Yucatan. There is a high probability that this disturbance will turn into a namable tropical storm over the weekend or soon after. It would become Alex, unless another disturbance located near the Bahamas gets to that stage first (unlikely). For reference, here are the storm names for the Atlantic basin this year:
The list of names for 2022 is as follows:
Note that last year, the name “Ida” was retired from the list.
If you go right now (mid day Tuesday, 31 May, 2022) to the National Hurricane Center’s site and look at the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic (go back and forth, look at Mexico) you’ll that the Pacific side shows the remains of Hurricane Agatha over the highlands, and being ripped apart into a possible tropical depression. Then, if you look at the Atlantic side you’ll see a “large and complex area of low pressure” that has a 70% chance of developing into some sort of tropical storm over the next 5 days.
And they are the same thing!
So, the first storm of the season in the Eastern Pacific basis, named Agatha, was the strongest storm recorded yet to hit the west coast of Mexico (most Eastern Pacific storms move westish and don’t hit Mexico), and that first storm of the season, a few days early by the way, is not crossing Mexico where, with good timing and the right conditions, it will become the first tropical storm for the season in the Atlantic.
I don’t think this has happened recently, if ever.
If and when this large and complex thing makes this transition, they will go from Agatha to Alex. Agatha will be Alex’s dead name, meteorologically speaking. Alex will have some work to do to break its own record, other than being a transitional Pacific to Atlantic storm, early in the season, and all that.
Of the too early to really use available models, most have Alex not developing past tropical storm strength, but some have it barely touching hurricane status. But if it is ever going to get to hurricane status, that would be in a few days from now. I wouldn’t put much faith in these predictions, either way, until at least two days from now, so mid day Thursday.
Those few models that have the storm moving away from the southern Gulf at all have it slicing Florida in half. Not literally, just in terms of its route. But again, tool early to say. This will be an interesting storm to track.