Ida is currently menacing western Cuba. It will then pass the long way across the Gulf of Mexico, gaining strength every day. Ida will probably be a Category 3 hurricane by the time it has crossed the gulf. There is a chance Ida could rise in strength to Category 4. It is too early to say for sure, but every single model but one that I’ve seen puts landfall somewhere in Louisiana. The one outlyer model has landfall in Mississippi near the Louisiana border.
Gulf-denizens, start getting ready now. Ida is moving fast. The landfall of the eye, which is NOT when it hits the coast, will be late Sunday or very early Monday.
Update: Latest info from NWS indicates that the storm will strengthn to Category 4 prior to landfall. That would be at about 6AM on the 30th.
Key Messages at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021:
- Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are
expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.
There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.
Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.
Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban,
small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH…INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW