This is Wayne LaPierre of the NRA, the guy who thought up the idea that since Obama is leaving gun owners alone he must be planning to take away all the guns. This is one of the strangest things I’ve seen this election cycle so far:
Continue reading Obama’s Conspiracy Against Guns
Tag Archives: Election 2012
That black guy gonna cut off your head
Santorum Wins Chilly Tuesday
Santorum handily won Minnesota’s caucus tonight, with Romney coming in in third place after Ron Paul, and Gingrich holding on to fourth place. Santorum also won in Missouri, with Romney taking a weak second place and Paul third. The Caucus in Colorado went strongly for Santorum, with Gingrich a weak second and Romney and Paul taking third and fourth.
The Romney Juggernaut never was a Juggernaut and still isn’t.
Sharon Sund for Congress!!!!
I support and endorse Sharon Sund for US Congress. Sharon will represent the Third District in Minnesota.
For years, the Third District, in which I live, was represented by a moderate Republican, Jim Ramstad. Though I never voted for him, it was not all that annoying that he was in Congress because, as I say, he was moderate. Ramstad was pro choice, suppored stem cell research, he was not anti science and he was pro gau rights (but did not support gay marriage). I mention all this because it should reflect the electorate of the 3rd District which he represented.
Around the time of his retirement, of course, Republicans were busy jettisoning their moderates. When the seat became open two elections back, the Democrats put up a person who could be thought of as a moderate Democrat, and in particular, as a veteran Marine with experience in Iraq, and a lawyer, a candidate who could appeal to the sorts of republicans that must have been electing Ramstad since 1990. That was Ashwin Madia, and I worked for his campaign as much as I had time for, canvassing, phone banking, and blogging. Madia was a great guy but for reasons which I will lay out in a moment, he lost that election despite the coattails of Barach Obama and Al Franken, also running that year.
Madia was defeated by Eric Paulsen, coming from the Minnesota House. Paulsen is a Bush-Bachmann Republican. He opposes a good health care system, voted agains tthe American Clean Energy and Security Act, against all of the economic emergency bills that were proposed a couple of years back, he is uniformly against all gay rights and is in favor of discrimination against women. How did such a person win against Madia in this moderate district?
There are probably two or three reasons. First, Madia was a great guy and his positions were in line with what one would think the district would support, but he was not a dynamic presence on the stage, and therefore no matter what he said during debates and public performances, he did not pick up support during those events. Second, Paulsen matches the district more than one might have thought. Even though Ramstat was re-elected again and again, he also ran against virtually no opposition again and again. When I first moved to the district, and asked around, I discovered that most people didn’t even know if he was a Republican or a Democrat, or what his positions were or, in some cases, if he was a state or federal Representative. Putting it another way, there hadn’t been an election for office of the Third Congressional District since 1990. Third, the above mentioned coat tails were not as long as one might have thought. Remember, Franken only barely beat Coleman, having run what Franken himself calls “The most efficient election to the Senate ever.”
Once Paulsen was in place, he showed himself to be a follower. Mainly, a follower of Michele Bachmann. When his first re-election campaign came up, and he was opposed by Jim Meffert, I did an analysis of Paulsen’s voting record and found that it was almost exactly identical to Michele Bachmann’s (see: Who is Erik Paulsen, anyway?). I think that situation has not changed since the, though it became difficult to compare any one’s voting record to Bachmann because she stopped casting votes to go run for President.
Meffert, running against Paulsen two years ago, was also a moderate candidate, and I think he may have been put forward by the party for similar reasons as Madia; Ramstat was moderate, thus the district is moderate, thus put up a moderate. However, now that this strategy has failed twice in a row, it is clearly time to consider a different option.
And that option is clearly Sharon Sund.
Sund is not a moderate. She is not wishy washy or equivocating on any of the key issues.
She supports investment in education, opposes the unfunded federal mandate, and would never support the teaching of anti-science or bad science in the science classroom. Sund wants to increase Pell Grant funding, expand loan forgiveness, and supports maximizing STEM funding. Her energy and environment policy is pro-environmental and pro-jobs, supporting investment in green energy, and tax incentives for green technology development. At the same time she wants to redirect fossil fuel subsidies to develop green economies, invest in infrastructure, and repatriate jobs via tax incentives.
Sharon is unabashedly pro LGBTQ. She has made a campaign promise to co-sponsor the repeal of DOMA, supports marriage equality, social fairness and equality, and extends this to partner immigration rights.
Unlike Paulsen, Sharon Sund supported the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, she supports federal funding for Planned Parenthood, is Pro Choice and supports funding of Medicare for parents, children, and others, and supports reinvestment in Head Start and increasing tax credits and deductions for Child Care expenses.
One of the things that attracts me most to Sharon Sund’s candidacy is her position on science. Sharon is actually a scientist, holding degrees in science related fields. She did research and development work on a battery used in windmill-based electricity generation. She supports STEM funding and excellence in science education. You can check out her positions on science and other issues on her web site, but I’ve heard from her directly on these issues and I’m very positively impressed with her enthusiasm regarding the importance of science in policy. Some time in the near future I want to ask her about the Science Pledge and see if she’ll sign on to it. I’m guessing yes. I’ll let you know.
Here’s the thing: Sharon Sund is a clearly progressive candidate who overtly foregrounds science and related economic, educational, health, and social policy informed by science. I really could not have asked for a better candidate running in my district. I hope that you feel the same way. Running moderates in the Third District has not been an effective strategy against a Michele Bachmann clone. The choice has not been clear enough. Name recognition and machine politics have given an advantage to the Republican candidate, and this advantage is only getting stronger. Sund is a progressive who represents the views of many people in this district. She is a pro-science person, and many people who live in this district are in science related jobs (as is the case with all of the Minnesota suburubs). She is a pro-education candidate, and her district is probably the most pro-education district in the state. Sharon Sund can gain support a moderate could have never gained here. And with that support she can actually win this race and allow Minnesota to shift its delegation to a more progressive stance.
If you are not a resident of the Third District of Minnesota, I still need you to do something. I need you to Click Here and donate $10 to Sharon’s campaign. Having her in Congress will benefit you even if you live in Peoria. For that matter, it will benefit you even if you live in Tokyo. So send Yen!
If you ARE a resident of the Third District of Minnesota, then you MUST CLICK HERE and donate $100 to Sharon’s campaign, AND you must volunteer for her.
If Sharon Sund is elected to Congress, the number of scientists in the House of Representatives of the United States will increase by about 15%. You can help make this happen!
Florida Primary Results: A Pattern Emerges
First the results: New Gingrich Did Not Lose by As Much As You Might have Guessed He Might.
By the numbers, as estimated by various news agencies:
ROMN: 47
GING: 32
SANT: 13
PAUL: 07
OTHR: 01
That’s a mighty strong showing for “Other” … it will be interesting to look into that.
Here’s the sequence over the last several days showing the March of the Numbers comparing Romney and Gingrich in polls
The pattern we see in Florida reflects the pattern of the overall primary process. No one ever had any doubt that Romney was going to win this primary, but in fact, there were two times when he was not ahead in the polls, and at the last minute, note that Romney was dropping in numbers with Gingrich gaining . Ron Paul remains irrelevant.
Here’s the bigger picture. Before the Iowa Caucuses Romney was considered the most likely person to win. Santorum won.
Before the New Hampshire Primary was considered the most likely person to win. But Oscar the Grouch could have won that primary had he been from the Greater Boston Area, of which New Hampshire is a minor suburb.
Before the North Carolina Primary, Romney was considered to be the most likely person to win. Um. New Gingrich won that primary.
So, to date, the candidate who is repeatedly labeled as the most likely to win the nomination has won half of the contests and is being dogged by a formidable, if obnoxious, opponent.
Furthermore, TV pundits are getting something else wrong: Continue reading Florida Primary Results: A Pattern Emerges
Post SOTU weekly address
It’s about process. Or, more accurately, it’s about Republican obstructionism.
Facing irrelevancy at the national level, Michel Bachmann makes important sounding statement of no substance
On meet the press, no less:
“I reserve the right to endorse someone but at this point I have not made a decision about endorsing any one of the candidates,” she said. “We are still in the process and I really truly do, Bob, want to be a unifying person in this party.”
Uh huh.
Political analyst Larry Jacobs of the Humphrey Institute said Bachmann may be holding off announcing an endorsement for “drama’s sake.”
Uh.
The Topsy Turvy World of the Republican Primary Process. And a dancing otter.
After a surprising showing in South Carolina, New Gingrich pulled way ahead of Mitt Romney, in pre-Florida Primary polling. But that sudden increase in numbers quickly eased off and Gingrich and Romney remained very close for a few days, with Romney a few points ahead. Over the last 36 hours, Romney has put significant distance between his candidacy and Gingrich’s, with Romney polling consistently above 40% and Gingrich consistanly double digits behind. Santorum is holding steady at 12-14%, and nobody cares about Ron Paul.
However, in comparing all of the candidates in polls asking people across the country which Republican they would vote for, Romney is NOT a clear winner. In fact, Gingrich tends to score a couple of points ahead of Romney. In one recent poll (NBC/Wall Street Journal) Gingrich was 9 points ahead. In the most recent poll (Gallup Tracking) Gingrich was just 2 points ahead.
But the preference for Gingrich does not align with national polls comparing the various republican candidates with Obama. In these polls, Romney tends to come closer to Obama’s lead than does Gingrich, who tends to get his ass whupped by the President, with Barack Obama showing a double-digit lead over the hapless and blithering ex-speaker.
But a lot can change in two days. Gingrich is on the attack against Romney, and his main point of attack seems to be to point out how Romney is on the attack against Gingrich. I don’t expect this to change the outcome of the Florida Primary. Romney will win there, although is it always possible that he will win by less than the current polls suggest. But what may happen over the longer term is a shift in the overall view of Gingrich and Romney by Republican voters in general. I expect there to be a downgrading of support for both “Front Runners” as they continue to slam each other. Santorum will come out a minor winner over the medium term, possibly even taking a state or two if his strategy is managed effectively and his money holds out.
Just for fun here’s Ron Paul’s attack ad ad d d attack attack ack ack ad d against Gingrich:
Continue reading The Topsy Turvy World of the Republican Primary Process. And a dancing otter.
College Diminishes Faith
Therefore we should stop giving money to them.
And now, a word from the next president of the United States: Continue reading College Diminishes Faith
The Florida Primary: A First Look
The Florida Primary is set for Tuesday, January 31st. Romney, Gingrich, Paul and Santorum are running. For a while there it looked like Gingrich was an easy winner, because his numbers were jumping rapidly in the polls, but things have settled down and it is starting to look more like a Gingrich-Romney horse race. Here are the numbers: Continue reading The Florida Primary: A First Look
Republicans Act Like Jerks Get Dressed Down By President
Hat tip: JEL
The results of the South Carolina Primary will not be as expected
The recently identified trend of Romney heading towards the nomination with double digits on the second place guy (whoever that turns out to be) has now been displaced by my older model of Romne faltering as Santorum and/or Gingrich (but not Ron Paul) moves ahead. Several factors are pertinent: Continue reading The results of the South Carolina Primary will not be as expected
A word about South Carolina
I’m going to be going to North Carolina in a matter of hours (well, tomorrow some time) where I’ll be heavily engaged in ScienceOnline 2012. I don’t want to plan how much writing I’ll be doing here or a Scienceblogs, because I’m not sure what I’ll be doing there. Since the main reason to go to this conference aside from attending the really cool sessions is to see friend, colleagues, and loved ones I otherwise rarely see, I can’t count on a lot of bloggy activity. So, it would be especially helpful for me if you’d allow me to say one or two things about South Carolina and then leave it until after the fact.
Romney is the current leader and polling numbers for South Carolina, the general primary process, and upcoming Florida all show the same thing. We also see that Gingrich is a consistent second and Santorum and Paul are fluctuating around third place, with Santorum being more commonly ahead of Paul. The gap between Romney and second place Gingrich is large, and the gap among the second placers and lower is small.
The most straight forward interpretation, then, is this: Romney will be running against Obama, but there are well funded and not insignificant others in a position to move in if Romney falters. Attacks such as the Bain Bane have not hurt Romney so far. In a way, that is good news, because I interpret this as people not seeing Gingrich, who has led those attacks, as particularly credible. The fact that this one time Gingrich is right is a bit disturbing, but we are dealing with Republicans, after all. And they make no sense.
In short, I see a horse race with Romney several lenghts ahead until the end, unless he stumbles and then, well, chaos. Romney does have the best numbers in one-on-one polling against Obama, compared to all the others.
OK, now I’m going to go check the weather in North Carolina, then go buy a shirt.
Huntsman Will Quit Race For Presidential Nomination Shortly
After spending the entire day yesterday (almost) engaged in the conversation about the dismal state of science in the arena of public policy, I got word late last night that the only Republican in the race for the presidential nomination who does not openly and gleefully disdain science will be dropping out today. So, all those bad things I said yesterday about Republicans? It’s worse than that!
Which House Democrats Should Be Replaced This Election Cycle?
Remember the big vote(s) that passed our beloved Obamacare? You may also remember that in the house not a single Republican voted for the healthcare bill because not only do they not want you to have fair and reasonable access to medical care and treatment, but also, they are pre-programmed by the Hate Meme to vote against anything Obama wants. If Obama says the sky is blue, then according to House Republicans, the sky is not blue.
You may also remember that 34 Democrats went along with the Republicans and voted against your access to reasonable health care at reasonable cost. A facebook friend, Sharon Johnson Miller, just reposted a HuffPo article listing the names of these Democrats. You may want to see if any of those on this list are yours, and if so, consider taking care of that as we enter the primary and caucus season and begin to select candidates to run for Congress.
They are:
Rep. John Adler (N.J.)
Rep. Jason Altmire (Pa.)
Rep. Michael Arcuri (N.Y.)
Rep. John Barrow (Ga.)
Rep. Marion Berry (Ark.)
Rep. Dan Boren (Okla.)
Rep. Rick Boucher (Va.)
Rep. Bobby Bright (Ala.)
Rep. Ben Chandler (Ky.)
Rep. Travis Childers (Miss.)
Rep. Artur Davis (Ala.)
Rep. Lincoln Davis (Tenn.)
Rep. Chet Edwards (Texas)
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.)
Rep. Tim Holden (Pa.)
Rep. Larry Kissell (N.C.)
Rep. Frank Kratovil (Md.)
Rep. Dan Lipinski (Ill.)
Rep. Stephen Lynch (Mass.)
Rep. Jim Marshall (Ga.)
Rep. Jim Matheson (Utah)
Rep. Mike McIntyre (N.C.)
Rep. Mike McMahon (N.Y.)
Rep. Charlie Melancon (La.)
Rep. Walt Minnick (Idaho)
Rep. Glenn Nye (Va.)
Rep. Collin Peterson (Minn.)
Rep. Mike Ross (Ark.)
Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.)
Rep. Ike Skelton (Mo.)
Rep. Zack Space (Ohio)
Rep. John Tanner (Tenn.)
Rep. Gene Taylor (Miss.)
Rep. Harry Teague (N.M.)