Sept 9th: From the National Hurricane Center, pertaining to Larry:
“Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
conditions are storm surge are possible in portions of southeastern
Newfoundland where a hurricane watch is in effect. Interests there
should monitor updates to the forecast.
This has not been a particularly noteworthy hurricane season so far in that it is now July and we are only having our first actual hurricane. On the other hand, we are already up to the Es, with Elsa. https://gregladen.com/blog/wp-admin/post.php?post=33867&action=edit#
Elsa has just strengthened to a lower level hurricane, and will now head through the space between Haiti and Jamaica, aiming directly at Cuba where it will likely downgrade to a tropical storm because hitting Cuba head on tends to do that. This storm is currently projected to remain a storm while it scrapes the west coast of Florida or perhaps spreads across the mainland in that state. Way too early to say now.
There are projections that have Elsa go over the Gulf far enough west of the Florida peninsula that maybe it would gain strength and become a more sever storm, but most likely Elsa will do most of its damage in Cuba.
It starts. Ana has formed, is very far north, not going to be a hurricane, and will veer within about two days to the northeast and be engulfed by a front. Ana is considered a sub-tropical storm. Ana is, however, important because it is early. Normally they start watching for hurricanes on June 1st and then the first one takes a while.
In the past an unnamed 1938 hurricane of note appeared on January 3, and a subtropical storm appeared in January 18th in 1978. Technically the NHC counts these as early, but I personally think they might be late from the previous season.
Another 8 storms appeared early prior to the present. In reverse rank order:
10.Subtropical Storm Andrea (May 9 2007)
9. Tropical Storm Ana (May 8 2015)
8. Tropical Storm Arlene (May 6 1981)
7. Tropical Storm (Unnamed) (May 5 1932)
6. Subtropical Storm (Unnamed) (April 21 1992)
5. Tropical Storm Ana (April 20 2003)
4. Hurricane (Unnamed) March 6 1908)
3. Tropical Storm (Unnamed) (Feb 2 1952)
See that? This year’s Ana is the third one to do this! Make sense since “Ana” starts with an “A” so it would always be the first storm.
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be somewhat more active than average.
June 1st: Note that Blanca is currently forming as the second name storm in the Eastern Pacific. It will not be a hurricane and will wander out to sea and dissipate.
Nothing in the Atlantic today.
The storm name list for 2021 is:
We’ll be watching the eastern Pacific storms as well, and th is is the list of names for that basin: