Spaghetti is as what spaghetti does. At this time, the spaghetti models — that’s what we call the collection of lines emanating out from the location of an existing storm showing many possible future tracks based on many different models — show the Atlantic storm known as Florence coming perilously close to the US.
However, all of these models have the storm still a couple days minimum from hitting something (if it hits something) FIVE DAYS in the future. The collection of models suggesting a tropical storm or hurricane’s track are very accurate, at the level of something the size of a US state, for a couple/few days. Five days out is a long way to predict. If Florence were to hit the US coast, it would be in perhaps six days from now or later.
There is a very high probability that the storm will turn right, north, and entirely avoid the US.
The full range of possible landfalls IF if makes landfall runs from Miami to New Jersey.
So, it is undoubtedly too soon to say anything clear about Florence.
Nonetheless there are two things that compel me two write this premature post. First, the major media are starting to report Florence. I assume this is in part because the Atlantic Hurricane season has been quiet so far and weather-oriented reporters and editors are getting jumpy. I know I am.
The other reason is more important. Just as there are many predicted tracks that have Florence hitting the US, there are also predictions of Florence being rather strong. Most of the intensity predictions suggest that in about 100 to 120 hours from now, the storm will reach Category 3 or possibly Category 4 status.
So, if this is going to be a thing, it might be a big thing.
The intensity predictions don’t say what happens after that, and it is not uncommon for a Category 4 storm out in the middle of the ocean to weaken before it gets near land. So, the news headlines will read “Category Five Storm Heading For Virginia” while what is really happening is “Category Five Storm Will Weaken To Category 3 Storm Before Maybe Hitting Virginia.” The breathless over reporting of strength is dangerous, because the actual Category 3 storm is bad enough, still a major hurricane. But if everyone hears “The Cat Five Weakened to a Cat Three” all they may see is the word “weakened.”
When will we know if Florence is going to hit land? Maybe Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Stay tuned.
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Hurricane Sandy had weakened considerably when it hit the NYC area, barely a category 1 if I remember correctly. Local authorities seemed to focus on the diminished wind speed and let down their guards. Meanwhile, wind direction, tide, and pressure variables were making the weathermen extremely nervous, but their fears were not communicated effectively to the public. Flooding caused most of the over 100 US deaths from that tropical cyclone. Is there a better threat category that exists for such storms, something based on flooding potential? If not, there probably will be in the future, as sea levels rise and higher water temperatures result in increased inland flooding from such events.
Actually, it didn’t really weaken. It spread out. There were probably wind fields at a category 3 level but they were embedded in a huge area of lower wind speed. The storm essentially ate a huge Noreaster that was in the area. The fact that Sandy got disorganized didn’t diminish its overall strength and effect. Had the storm stayed at a classifiable hurricane it would have had a much more narrowly defined and more limited effect. What Sandy did, really, was to become a monster that didn’t fit the definition of the usual hurricane just as it was coming in.