Yearly Archives: 2017

The Oldest Human Bones, Jebel Irhoud, Morocco

Uncategorized, , , , , , ,

You’ve heard to story. I’m here to give you a little context.

A pretty typical early handaxe, made by a Homo erectus. This was a big flake made from a bigger rock. The big flake was subsequently flaked to make this handaxe. The word “handaxe” can be spelled about nine different ways.
But in case you haven’t heard the story, this is from the press release which is, so far, the only information generally available:

New finds of fossils and stone tools from the archaeological site of Jebel Irhoud, Morocco, push back the origins of our species by one hundred thousand years and show that by about 300 thousand years ago important changes in our biology and behaviour had taken place across most of Africa.

In order to understand the significance of this research, and it is indeed very significant, you need to have a detailed history of archaeological research in Europe, the Near East, and Africa. But since there isn’t time for that I’ll give you the following bullet points. Each of these bullet points reflects the general understanding of prehistory at a certain point in time, in order from oldest to newest.

This shows the Victoria West technique, used during the Fauersmith though this particular rock may be later). See the extra small flaking along one part of the rock? That was done to prepare the platform for the controlled detachment of a flake.

In the 70s and before, we thought this:

As humans evolved they went through stages where the morphology would change, usually involving an enlargement of the brain, along with the behavior, usually indicated by changes in stone tools. So, Homo erectus used acheulean tools (hand axes), Neanderthals used Mousterian tools (Levallois technology) with prepared platforms, and modern humans (“Cro Magnon”) used upper paleolithic technology and they had nice art too. The transition from Neanderthal times to Modern Human times happened 40,000 years ago.

The levallois technique. this involved shaping a rock to look like a turtle. Then, you shape one end of the turtle to look like the old fashioned hat of a French policeman. Then you hit the policeman on the hat just right, and a perfect flake comes off. In Africa, this was usually used to make blades and triangular points, but sometimes ovals.
In the 80s we realized that there was no association whatsoever between the various “industries” and the various “hominids” mainly because a lot of research in the Middle East kept finding Neanderthals and Modern Humans randomly associated with various technologies. This caused a disturbance in the force, so the whole idea of linking morphology (i.e, different species or subspecies) with different levels or modes of technological activity was tossed out the window.

Also in the 1980s and continuing into the early 1990s, African archaeologists realized something. Well, they realized two things. Most of us realized that at a certain point of time, which Sally McBreardy and Allison Brooks estimated to be about 250,000 years ago or a bit earlier, a “middle paleolithic” world with a lot of handaxes and some other bifaces (Sangoan-Lupemban technologies, that sort of thing) gave way to a “Middle Stone Age” technology. This MSA technology was essentially the same as but somewhat more advanced than what the Europeans called “Middle Plaeolithic” based on the Levallois technique, a prepared platform technology.

Eventually, very advanced technologies and very advanced modes of thinking, such as exemplified by this possible calendar object from the Semliki Valley in the Congo, emerged.
Notice that I keep mentioning that term … prepared platform technology. Put a pin in that.

The second thing we all knew about but not every body liked was an idea by Peter Beaumont, which is that a certain technology had emerged earlier than the Acheulean-MSA transition of 250K, which was called Fauersmith. This was a … wait for it … prepared platform technology of sorts.

Classically, the handaxe based technology of the early stone age was replaced with the prepared platform technology. This meant throwing the handaxes one last time and moving on to blades and points made with the levallois technique. But in the Fauersmith, an industry found mainly in the Cape Province of South Africa and nearby areas (I think I’ve seen it in Namibia), uses … wait for it … prepared platform technology to make handaxes! This industry is thought to be just older than the MSA, so just older than 250K, going back maybe to 350K, or maybe 400K or even 500K, no one is sure.

The Africanists also realized that the Europeans were pretty messed up in their thinking. The species/subspecies link to technology never went away in Africa. While such a thing is never expected to be perfect, it seemed to hold there. The reason the Europeans were confused is this: When it comes to new species and new technologies, Africa is the donor and Eurasia the occasional recipient.

I liken it to figuring out the chronology and technology of trade beads, those little glass beads, still in use, that were carried by Dutch and English (and other) ships around the world mainly in the early 17th century, to trade with the locals and buy things like, say, Manhattan Island. If you look at the trade beads found here and there on colonial sites around the world, and I’ve personally done this, you can figure out a chronology of style and design of those beads that we assume reflects realty in the two or three places they were consistently made. But only by going to the factory neighborhoods in the Netherlands and Italy, and South Asia, can you actually figure out what was going on.

Putting it another way, trying to describe human evolution, substantively, by observing only Europe and West Asia and ignoring Africa is like, oh hell, I don’t know what the heck, why would you ever do that?

Anyway, here’s what many of us have been thinking all along, following the insights of folks like Peter Beaumont and Alison Brooks. Once upon a time there were these Homo erectus doods, and they have some moderate game in the brain department but were definitely not humans. They may have lacked some serious human mind tricks, though they were capable of making and using fire, and their handaxes were very nice, when they wanted them to be. They were also very tough and strong and probably somewhat dangerous. Oddly, the most common cause of death, when we can estimate cause of death, is that they ate something that killed them. So, there is some kind of deficit or something behind that.

Then, some time after about a half million years ago, a subset of these guys, and I know where they lived because I have sat on the exact rock chairs they themselves sat on while making their tools, added something to their hand ax technology. They had probably added other things to their culture, and/or their brains, and this hand ax technology thing merely reflected this, but it also opened the opportunity for developing this technology further, and that may have been actually contributory to the subsequent evolutionary process. Anyway, they added this thing where instead of just whacking a flake off a big rock, with the intention of then flaking that big flake into a handaxe, they would make a few smaller specially and carefully done flakes on the big rock, literally a giant piece of bedrock in some cases, that made the prot-handaxe flake they were about to produce more predictable (and, actually, larger in many cases, I think).

The prepared platform. It made making hand axes better. But, taken to the next step, which seems to have happened in this region probably before the Great Transition in 250K, it actually allowed the production of stone tool doohickies never before seen, never before possible. this eventually developed into the full on prepared platform technique that eventually became common all across Africa, Europe and West Asia.

Now, let me tell you a little story you won’t hear, likely, from somewhere else. I was once visiting my friend Peter Beaumont, and he showed me a skull, that was unfortunately unprovenienced, i.e., no one could be sure of where it came from, that looks a lot like the Jebe Irhoud skull and others of that general form and age range. He did have it dated using a technique that, without knowing more about the context of the skull (it has been collected in antiquity by a farmer, supposedly, in the region) could not be fully reliable, but the date was somewhere between 300K and 400K, closer to the latter, if I recall correctly.

For completeness, this is a modern South African cell phone tower.
Here’s the thing. Assume for a minute, and this is a major oversimplification but I’ll defend it if necessary, that there is some sort of reasonable association between species or subspecies and technology. I’ve already described, just now, how that is messy. The late Homo erectus of the Cape, if I’ve got my story right, were using MSA technology before they were “early modern humans” for example. But that is expected. Just assume that there is a general correlation, for the purpose of a though experiment.

Now, go out in that thought experiment landscape and imagine looking for both artifacts and diagnostic skull bits, so you can put the story together of a few different hominins over time, one evolving into the other, and their material culture, especially their stone tool technology.

You will figure out the boundaries in time and space of the technologies long before you verify the species or subspecies by the remains of their actual heads. the reason for that should be obvious, but if it isn’t, just go around the city and look at all the litter you find. Look carefully at all the litter. Call me as soon as one of the pieces of litter is a human head. Actually, call 911 first, then me.

This new find is a head butting, perhaps, against the early time range for this species, previously expected from the Fauersmith theory.

I fully expect the key points in the article to be ignored and for Sub Saharan Africa to be broken off from the rest of Africa so that this find can be European/West Asian in stead of Africa, but to address that I’ll quickly tell you this; The Sahara may not have even existed then, so there may not have been a Sub Saharan Africa. Just an Africa. Where modern humans arose.

Coding iPhone apps for Kids

Uncategorized, , , , , ,

I can’t give this a meaningful review because I don’t have the setup to test it out, Coding iPhone Apps for Kids: A playful introduction to Swift by Gloria Winquist and Matt McCarthy looks like it is up to the high standards of this publisher and these authors, and might be just the thing for your kid:

Apple’s Swift is a powerful, beginner-friendly programming language that anyone can use to make cool apps for the iPhone or iPad. In Coding iPhone Apps for Kids, you’ll learn how to use Swift to write programs, even if you’ve never programmed before.

You’ll work in the Xcode playground, an interactive environment where you can play with your code and see the results of your work immediately! You’ll learn the fundamentals of programming too, like how to store data in arrays, use conditional statements to make decisions, and create functions to organize your code—all with the help of clear and patient explanations.

Once you master the basics, you’ll build a birthday tracker app so that you won’t forget anyone’s birthday and a platform game called Schoolhouse Skateboarder with animation, jumps, and more!

As you begin your programming adventure, you’ll learn how to:

  • Build programs to save you time, like one that invites all of your friends to a party with just the click of a button!
  • Program a number-guessing game with loops to make the computer keep guessing until it gets the right answer
  • Make a real, playable game with graphics and sound effects using SpriteKit
  • Challenge players by speeding up your game and adding a high-score system

    • Why should serious adults have all the fun? Coding iPhone Apps for Kids is your ticket to the exciting world of computer programming.

    Covers Swift 3.x and Xcode 8.x. Requires OS X 10.11 or higher.

    Example Page:

    TOC:

    Author Bio
    Gloria Winquist became hooked on iOS development in 2011 and has been programming professionally ever since. She works as an iOS developer at LumiraDx.

    Matt McCarthy has released more than 20 apps as part of a two-person team, Tomato Interactive LLC. He works as a software engineer at LumiraDx.

    Table of contents
    PART 1: Xcode and Swift
    Chapter 1: Hello, World!
    Chapter 2: Learning to Code in a Playground
    Chapter 3: Making Choices
    Chapter 4: Writing Code That Loops
    Chapter 5: Keeping Your Programs Safe with Optionals
    Chapter 6: Storing Collections in Dictionaries and Arrays
    Chapter 7: Functions Are a Party, and You’re Invited
    Chapter 8: Custom Classes and Structs

    PART 2: Birthday Tracker
    Chapter 9: Creating Buttons and Screens on the Storyboard
    Chapter 10: Adding a Birthday Class and Handling User Input
    Chapter 11: Displaying Birthdays
    Chapter 12: Saving Birthdays
    Chapter 13: Getting Birthday Notifications

    PART 3: Schoolhouse Skateboarder
    Chapter 14: Setting the Stage
    Chapter 15: Making Schoolhouse Skateboarder a Real Game
    Chapter 16: Using the SpriteKit Physics Engine
    Chapter 17: Adjusting Difficulty, Collecting Gems, and Keeping Score
    Chapter 18: Game State, Menus, Sound, and Special Effects

    The New Climate Alliance

    Climate Change, Environment

    Screw the so-called Federal Government, once part of a great democracy, now a great joke run by an insane clown and his posse.

    Most of the hard work in the energy transition needs to be done at the levels of the state and the individual anyway. So, with Trump taking the so-called Federal Government, which most of us now recognize as illegitimate and an annoyance at best as is slowly disappears bit by bit and becomes nothing other than a way to transfer tax money to rich people (until we stop paying our taxes), let’s just get on with saving civilization, the planet, our children, and all that good stuff on our own.

    And, at the state level, I’m proud to announce that Minnesota has joined the new “Climate Alliance.”

    From MPR:

    Gov. Mark Dayton on Monday joined a group of governors who are committing their states to upholding the Paris climate deal’s emissions cuts despite President Trump’s decision last week to withdraw the U.S. from the pact.

    Organized as the U.S. Climate Alliance, member states aim to reduce emissions by at least 26 percent from 2005 levels and meet the federal Clean Power Plan targets.

    “President Trump’s withdrawal will cause serious damage to our environment and our economy,” Dayton said in a statement. “Nevertheless, Minnesota and other states will show the world what we can achieve by working together to conserve energy, to use cleaner and renewable energy, and to leave a livable planet to our children and grandchildren.”

    There’s over 12 other states in the group now, last count.

    Of course, this is all for naught if we dont’ elect a Democratic governor here in 2018. For information on that, see this.

    A guide to the butterflies (book review)

    Uncategorized, , , ,

    A Swift Guide to Butterflies of North America is a field guider’s field guide. It is the shape and size of a traditional field guide. The designers of this book said “we don’t need no stinking margins” so there are no margins. Color bleeds on the page edges allow a quick index to major butterfly categories. There is a two page spread visual index. A no nonsense introduction give you the basics about how to use the book, how to be a butterflyer, and how to not be a jerk about butterflies (like, don’t net them and kill them). The front covers even have those flaps that you can use as bookmarks.

    Ranges are an interesting problem with butterflies, since their biogeography is both very heterogeneous and in some cases rapidly changing. Also, a key feature of their breeding ranges is not so much when they are there, but how many times they cycle through broods over the warm months. So the maps are interesting:

    A species entry is jammed with info. The color of the species name indicates something about its range, and key information about habitat, timing of adult phase, etc. is pulled out and highlighted. And so on. I’m giving a few examples of the pages here so you have an idea of how no nonsense serious this book is as a field guide. This is the book in which you find the butterfly, no question.

    This guide, by Jeffry Glassberg, world expert on butterflies, is the revised second edition of what has always been recognized as the most usable and detailed field guid for the average intense person. 3,500 photographs cover all known species in the region, depicting details and variants.

    The guide is photographic, but using modern techniques to this approach (which, in the old days, was usually not as good as drawing) so you have the best illustrations in this book.

    ————————————-
    See also: Monarch Butterflies and Milkweed: An amazing new book

    ————————————-

    The information about each species in together with all the other information about each species.

    Species are grouped in major categories that are essentially morphological. So you go, “look, there’s a skipper” and look it up in the section on skippers.

    This is an excellent must have field guide.

    From the publisher’s site:

    Jeffrey Glassberg is a leading butterfly authority and author. He is president of the North American Butterfly Association, editor of American Butterflies magazine, and the author of many books, including the Butterflies through Binoculars series. He is adjunct professor of evolutionary biology at Rice University and lives in Morristown, New Jersey.

    The Table of Contents:

    Introduction 7
    About This Book 7
    Butterfly Identification 7
    Butterfly Biology 8
    Names 9
    Interacting with Butterflies 9
    “Releasing” Butterflies 10
    Conservation 11
    North American Butterfly Association 11
    Wing Areas and Body Parts 12
    About the Species Accounts 13
    Abbreviations, Symbols and Glossary 14
    About the Maps 15
    Swallowtails Papilionidae 16
    Parnassians Parnassiinae 16
    True Swallowtails Papilioninae 18
    Whites and Yellows Pieridae 36
    Whites Pierinae 36
    Marbles and Orangetips 46
    Yellows Coliadinae 52
    Sulphurs 52
    Yellows 68
    Gossamerwings Lycaenidae 74
    Coppers Lycaeninae 74
    Harvester Miletinae 83
    Hairstreaks Theclinae 84
    Blues Polyommatinae 122
    Metalmarks Riodinidae 146
    Brushfoots Nymphalidae 158
    Heliconians and Fritillaries Heliconiinae 158
    Heliconians 158
    Greater Fritillaries 162
    Lesser Fritillaries 182
    True Brushfoots Nymphalinae 190
    Patches, Checkerspots and Crescents 190
    Anglewings, Ladies and Relatives 220
    Admirals and Relatives Limenitidinae et al. 232
    Leafwings Charaxinae 246
    Emperors Apaturinae 250
    Snouts Libytheinae 253
    Satyrs Satyrinae 254
    Ticlears, Clearwings Ithomiinae 277
    Mimic-Queen and Monarchs Danainae 277
    Skippers Hesperiidae 280
    Firetips Pyrrhopyginae 280
    Spreadwing Skippers Pyrginae 280
    Skipperlings Heteropterinae 332
    Grass-Skippers Hesperiinae 334
    Giant-Skippers Megathyminae 394
    Hawaii 400
    Conclusion
    Photo Credits 402
    Selected Bibliography 403
    Selected Websites 403
    Caterpillar Foodplant Index 404
    Butterfly Species Index 408
    Visual Index 418

    Michael Mann Endorses Rebecca Otto for Governor of Minnesota

    Climate Change, Politics, , ,

    State Auditor Rebecca Otto is running for Governor of Minnesota. She will seek the DFL (Democratic Party) Endorsement. There are several other candidates either declared or likely to run, but Otto stands head and shoulders above all the others, especially in three areas:

    1) Honesty and integrity in government.

    Otto has been recognized nationally by the auditors around the country, and this is for good reason. In fact, she’s recognized internationally. The Minnesota Auditor’s office, under Otto, is one of those places the US State Department sends people from other countries to figure out how they should set up their own Democracy. (I’m not sure if the State Department will still be doing that ….)

    2) Eschewing the false balance and finding real common ground between desperate parties.

    This is Rebecca Otto’s super power. I’ve seen her do this right before my eyes.

    The whole state saw her do it in Minnesota. There is a large mining region here, and mining companies want to start a new phase, extracting copper. Have you heard of the Environmental Movement? The US Environmental Movement has multiple roots, including my own home town Hudson River, with the sloop Clearwater and all that. But it also started in Minnesota, with the mining companies up on “The Range” (a place in Minnesota) where the miners were killing Lake Superior with their effluent. There has always been a fight on The Range between those who want more jobs and those who do not want to kill the Great Lakes and other natural wonders.

    A couple of years ago, Rebecca cast a principled vote on a committee the Auditor serves on, the only vote among her fellow Democrats, to put environmental considerations on equal footing with jobs and other issues. She didn’t want to see the big mining companies leave The Range in the same sort of mess, with respect to local costs of cleanup, lost jobs, etc., as they have in the past, and like mining companies tend to do. That move got all the Republicans and some of the Range Democrats mad at Otto, and they have been viciously attacking her ever since, because they want all those Range votes for themselves.

    Meanwhile, Rebecca went to The Range, talked to people, helped all the parties find common ground, and on voting day, she outperformed the Democratic Governor, and the Congressional candidate in counties and precincts she should, according to common wisdom, should have lost. Twice.

    (See this analysis of the elections.)

    3) Rebecca Otto is a true Climate Hawk

    And this is why climate scientist Michael Mann endorsed her. Among other things, Mann said:

    … Otto is a shining example of the kind of integrity and leadership we hope for in our elected leaders but too rarely see: someone who puts their money where their mouth is. I’m proud to support Rebecca Otto for Governor of Minnesota, and urge everyone who is concerned about climate change and clean energy to join me in supporting her. … As the Minnesota State Auditor, Rebecca issued a nationally award-winning report on how local governments can reduce energy costs dramatically by switching to clean, carbon-free energy sources…

    Go HERE to read the entire endorsement.

    I asked Professor Mann why a climate scientist working in Pennsylvania would worry about a governor’s race in Minnesota. “In climate change, we face a threat that knows no boundaries—continental boundaries, national boundaries, or state boundaries,” het told me. “We must support politicians everywhere who are willing to act on climate. Rebecca Otto has demonstrated that she places great priority on science-based policymaking on climate change and I am happy to support her candidacy.”

    Make sure, when you visit that site, you watch Rebecca’s one minute video. See those solar panels she’s sitting in front of? I helped install them!

    Recommended music player and radio for the gym

    Uncategorized, , , , ,

    Several weeks ago I tried once again, after many prior ill fated attempts over several years, to get a device that would play music, audio books, and be a radio. The audiobook part wasn’t the most important part, but the ability to play various audio files AND act as a radio AND not be a big giant thing I had to strap to a body part AND be sturdy were all important. This latest attempt has gone very well, and I now have a device that is very nice and therefore, I figured you’d want one too.

    This time I tried the AGPtEK M20S 8GB Mini MP3 Player(Expandable Up to 64GB), Lossless Sound Touch Button Metal Music Player with FM/Voice Record,Silver and I love it, enough to recommend it.

    Here are some of the specs from the manufacturer:

    <li>Tiny and Solid Construction: The metal body makes it sturdy with some weight. Mini and portable,only 3 x 0.3 x 1.2 inches.</li>

<li>Lossless Sound Quality: High sound quality brings crystal clear sound wherever you are. Support audio formats: MP3/WMA/OGG/APE(Normal/Fast)/FLAC/WAV/AAC-LC/ACELP.</li>

<li>Easy Operation with Touch Button: Designed with 6 touch buttons and 5 metal buttons,independent locking and volume control. Fashion and convenient operation.</li>

<li>Multi-function: With music play, FM radio, FM/voice recording, resume playback, folder view, clock screensaver, bookmarks etc.</li>

<li>Long playback time: Up to 14 hours of audio playback with 2 hours of full charge. 8 GB digital storage media capacity, supports up to 64 GB (not included). To avoid incompatibility, please use AGPTek Memory Card.</li>

    Did you see that it holds a microSD? I’ve not used that feature, but that is pretty cool. It has folders you can divide the music up in, which is, essentially, a very efficient way of making a play list. I’ve also not tried to record music off the radio. I’ll probably never listen to music on this radio. I may, however, record Rachel Maddow now and then..

    At this point, being fairly new, I think it goes well beyond the 2 hour charge estimate.

    It is complicated, this little device, and therefore can not be operated with a single button like a Shuffle. So, it will take a little while to lerarn how to use it (perhaps a full five minutes). Just remember, the reverse U button backs you out, and that’s a great way to change modes. The menu hamburger button, while listening to a radio station, lets you make a preset or change the presets.

    I’m not sure that I loved the headphones. I remember not being too impressed with how they fit, but that’s going to be true for everybody vis-a-vis various headphones. I just plugged in my favorite headphones and used them. I’d grab them and look them over one more time to give you my opinion, but it is possible that the cat ate them.

    Also, I just noticed, that if you get the AGPtEK now and buy an additional item with it, like a microSD card or a wall charger, you can get a discount on something. I’m not in the market for any of those things so I didn’t look closely.

    Standing Up To The Politics Of Greed: Rebecca Otto

    Politics

    The amazing Betty Folliard, former school board member, Minnesota house representative, and the woman behind a number of important political campaign, has a radio show on AM950 The Progressive Voice of Minnesota (where I occassionally voice as well, but on a different show) called “A Woman’s Place.”

    Today, Betty interviewed Minnesota State Auditor Rebecca Otto, who is running for Governor of Minnesota.

    Here’s the interview:

    [soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/325200497″ params=”color=ff5500″ width=”100%” height=”166″ iframe=”true” /]

    Rebecca explains why she is running, and gives us a run down of her background, including the time she took over Michele Bachmann’s old senate district.

    I support Rebecca for governor. I know her because she is married to my friend, Shawn Otto, who is well known to all the readers of this blog. This is all connected in an interesting way, which I will write about some time (I don’t think Rebecca or Shawn are aware of that connection, now that I think about it).

    So, listen to the podcast, and GIVE HER SOME MONEY HERE.

    Some science and coding books you want that just got cheap.

    Other,

    This just came across my desk. These are not amazing deals, but they are pretty good deals. I’ll put the list price and asking price down so you can decide if you want to ignore this.

    A Global Warming Primer: Answering Your Questions About The Science, The Consequences, and The Solutions was $15 is now $10.20. (See this post for more info on this and related books)

    The Greatest Story Ever Told–So Far: Why Are We Here? by Krauss, was $27, now $14.16.

    Welcome to the Universe: An Astrophysical Tour by Neil deGrasse Tyson and others, was $39.95, now 26.74.

    Ruby Wizardry: An Introduction to Programming for Kids was $29.95, now $13.36.

    Various comments and current news

    Other, Politics, , , ,

    For some reason, Facebook is not posting reliably and I will not abide writing paragraphs that the Internet sucks into oblivion!

    So, I have a few thoughts I’ll put here and try to link to.

    Rebecca Otto for Governor

    Let’s start with Rebecca Otto, who just gave a great talk at the DFL (that’s what we Minnesotans call “Democrats”) Environmental Caucus meeting. Rebecca is running for Governor, and we need her to win.

    I’ve written a bit about that (see: Rebecca Otto: by far the strongest and most progressive candidate for Minnesota Governor in 2018), and some time over the next week or so I’ll officially endorse her. (Yes, of course, bloggers can officially do whatever they want!)

    Minnesota’s Democratic Governor Vs. The Trumpublicants

    Speaking of governors, here is something you should know. In Minnesota, where the women are strong, the men are good looking, and the Republicans are children, we are having a contentious time in the State government. The voters gave both houses of the legislature to the Republicans (riding on Putin’s coat tails?) but our Governor is Mark Dayton. Dayton, a DFLer, has been Governor for a while, and before that, he was in the Senate. Before that, if I recall correctly, he was a department store, but that was before I moved here.

    Anyway, the fight is getting nasty and both sides are punching hard. Dayton’s latest move was to line-item-veto the budget item that funds the legislature. That was the funniest thing I’ve seen in politics since Kennedy turned up the heat in the debate studio to make Nixon sweat heavily. Dayton did this, and a few other things, to force the Republicans to negotiate on some key issues where the people of the state really want a certain thing (like no tax breaks on the wealthiest, some improvements in the education budget, etc.) but the Republicans refuse.

    Here’s the thing. Dayton’s approval rating right now, in the middle of this big fight, is very high, and his disapproval rating is very low, and this applies across the state (though higher in DFL areas, obviously).

    The lesson in the madness: Standing up to Republican tantrums is popular these days. Democrats: Do more of that, grow a spine. If you don’t know what a brave Democrat looks like, go look at Mark Dayton.

    Cheap Malcolm Nance Book

    You know Malcolm Nance, author of The Plot to Hack America: How Putin’s Cyberspies and WikiLeaks Tried to Steal the 2016 Election. He’s on the Rachel Maddow show all the time. One of his other books, Hacking ISIS: How to Destroy the Cyber Jihad, is RIGHT NOW (and I assume for a limited time?) available for $1.99 in Kindle version. Just noticed that, so I thought I’d pass it on.

    Will trump stump Comey?

    This is the paragraph that was sucked into the Internet Void: The New York Times is reporting that Trump has no intention of interfering with this week’s testimony by fired FBI Director Comey. But the New York Times also says one never really knows what Trump will do. And, what the heck does the New York Times know anyway?

    There are other, more subtle and less reliable, suggestions that Trump may in fact invoke some sort of executive privilege rule and shut down Comey.

    The reason I mention this is to encourage RESIST activist groups like Indivisible, and individuals who are willing to go to the street to protest, to be ready for this. If it happens, an appropriate and good outcome would be swarming the streets.

    Why? Because Trump shutting down Comey is not only the next step in this very important process, but it could be THE moment of truth for our democracy. Which is a subtle way of saying, the actual end of our democracy. When the President shuts down the Congress investigating possible treason by the President, that is the end. You do understand that, right?

    Or, maybe that won’t happen, but we need to be ready.

    Thank you very much that is all.

    Trump Lied

    Uncategorized, , , , , , , ,

    I got a letter from a Minnesota-based teacher who is getting inundated by students asking questions about Paris. Many of those questions are dogwhistles (the students do not realize that) indicating that they’ve been getting their information from Trump supporters, or so I can confidently guess. (The school is in an area where many voted for Trump.)

    Here’s my response. Short version: he lied about everything.

    Most people in Minnesota who have asthma have it because of coal plant generated pollution. Shutting down the coal plants is a primary step in reducing climate change. So, even without climate change, if we could replace coal plants with clean energy production, which we can do, why would we not do that? Anybody in the room have asthma? Anybody in the room not know that asthma is not just an inconvenience, but a potential cause of death?

    (And the list of diseases and disorders goes way beyond Asthma)

    President says: “The green fund would likely obligate the United States to commit potentially tens of billions of dollars of which the United States has already handed over $1 billion. Nobody else is even close. Most of them haven’t even paid anything — including funds raided out of America’s budget for the war against terrorism. That’s where they came.”

    Other countries have contributed a great deal. The US is the biggest per capita producer of Carbon, and stands to be in the top three countries to benefit from the economic benefits of Paris. So, we pay 3 billion of a total 10 or 11 billion.

    This money is not from defense funds, that’s just a scare tactic. It comes from the State Departments economic support funds. In other words, it comes from human rights and such. Trump should love that.

    Plus the money does stuff. We’ll get a return on that investment. Like less asthma.

    President says: “We’re getting out, but we will start to negotiate, and we will see if we can make a deal that’s fair.”

    NO, actually, you get to negotiate if you are in. The agreement was set up to have continuous negotiations.

    President says: “China will be allowed to build hundreds of additional coal plants. So, we can’t build the plants, but they can, according to this agreement. India will be allowed to double its coal production by 2020.”

    Bald faced falsehood. There are no such restrictions or permissions on any country as part of Paris. The expectation is that market forces and consideration of other issues such as disease will reduce the use of coal very quickly over the next few decades.

    Kids in todays classrooms will still have kids with asthma, because this is all going very slowly, but the grandkids will hear the word “asthma” and think the same thing folks today think when they hear “gout” or “scurvy” or “rickets.” Diseases that don’t happen any more.

    President says: “Compliance with the terms of the Paris accord and the onerous energy restrictions it has placed on the United States could cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025, according to the National Economic Research Associates. This includes 440,000 fewer manufacturing jobs — not what we need.”

    This is based on a study funded by the anti-science foundations US CoC and the American Council for Capital Formation, and others. It is pretty much made up.

    The future jobs in this country are in clean energy. Solar and wind are creating jobs at a much higher rate than coal/gas/etc. Rebuilding the electric grid is going to require people, Americans specifically, and is going to support businesses. Especailly good for Minnesota. 75% of the North American new clean energy infrastructure was built by two companies based in Minnesota, and much of the trucking done to complete those jobs was done by a trucking company based in Minnesota.

    President says: “Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance from all nations, it is estimated it would only produce a two-tenths of one degree — think of that, this much — Celsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100. Tiny, tiny amount.”

    First, that is not a small amount. Second, the Paris deal was compared in an MIT report to market forces working on their own. So, the Paris deal is market forces plus a little extra. Why is Trump against that? Third, the Paris deal is also the framework to allow countries to adjust the overall changes needed as time goes on. There are uncertainties, esp. with respect to carbon sinks. This is not a reason the Paris deal does not make sense. It is the reason the Paris deal does make sense. Without the deal, an optimistic 0.2 degree difference would become a 0.5 degree difference. That’s huge.

    Maybe it would help if we changed units. Use the new unit I just invented, the “Trump”. There are 10,000 Trumps in a Kelvin. So, the Paris deal gives us 2000 Trumps. That’s YUGE!

    President says: “China will be able to increase these emissions by a staggering number of years, 13. They can do whatever they want for 13 years. India makes its participation contingent on receiving billions and billions and billions of dollars in foreign aid from developed countries.”

    China is slated to cut its carbon use more than most other countries, as does India. This is just looking at a long term projection/plan and cherry picking part of it and ignoring the rest.

    President says: “Believe me, we have massive legal liability if we stay in.”

    Believe me, we have massive legal liability if we get out. Remember all those kids with Asthma? When the US is the only country causing a worldwide disease and people realize that, we will have liability.

    President says: “As someone who cares deeply about the environment, which I do, I cannot in good conscience support a deal that punishes the United States, which is what it does.”

    Noe he isn’t, no he doesn’t, and no he shouldn’t.

    See this post for many links to many commentaries about Trump’s folly. See this post for the Washington Post’s fact checking, which I used in part for this commentary.

    We’ll always have Paris

    Uncategorized, , , , , , ,

    If you are upset about Trump and upset about Trump pulling the US out of the Paris agreement, please let me help you get through the day.

    Trump announcing that the US is pulling out of Paris does not mean the end of Paris, the end of action on climate change, or much else about global warming. I’ll explain why in a moment. The US pulling out of Paris could even be interpreted as better than the US staying in. I’ll explain that too.

    I’m not saying that Trump should have pulled out, I’m just saying that at the moment, if you are deeply concerned about the climate and the future, which you should be, don’t let this get you down too much because when you add up all the complications and nuances, Trump’s decision about Paris is not that different than his decision about immigration. A big league tweet followed by an awkward presentation of his racist America First agenda followed by not much.

    First, I’m going to list a few reasons that PAREXIT is not the end of the world. None of these arguments individually means much, but this will give you an idea of how this is not YASBTTTD (yet another simple bad thing that trump did). Then, I’ll tell you the real meaning of PAREXIT and why, in my view, this will backfire on Trump. Then, I’ll give you a few money quotes and links to commentary by my smart and trusted colleagues so you can read all about it.

    1) We have made arrangements and are part of Paris already, and leaving the Paris agreement therefore will take time. It will likely take a few years, which is longer than trump will be President. Here is the President of the European Commission explaining that since Trump does not “get close to the dossier” (translation: can’t read or think) he has announced a thing he can’t really do.

    2) There are almost 200 nations in the agreement, and the US would have been only one of them. Yes, we are the bigliest and the bestliest and among the most polluting and all that. But think about this for a second. How many times in the past has there been something like a 200:1 ratio of countries on two different sides of something? Answer: Never. Not once has that ever happened. Even Hitler had a couple of other bad hombres on his side. The sheer yugeness of this imbalance makes what Trump does not count for much. See below for more aspects to this part of PAREXIT.

    3) If the US were to remain an active participant in Paris, with Trump and his anti-environmental, anti-planet Republicans in charge, they would ruin the agreement. Right now, there are a lot of people quietly breathing a sigh of relief that the next few years of acting on Paris can ignore the US.

    Trump has said and done a lot of dumb things, and among those things have been a number of serious insults to other countries. The whole building a wall along the Mexican border thing is a good example. Trump’s attack on a huge portion of the world, directly, and insult to everyone else, indirectly, with his stance on Immigration seriously affected the view other countries have of the US. His coziness with Putin pisses off Europe. Every chance he has had to be nice vs. insult a foreign leader, he’s chosen the bully-brat approach and mostly insulted.

    All this together made everyone else in the world look at Trump with suspicion. But, world leaders remained diplomatic, sometimes even hopeful, said nice things, and tried to live with it all.

    Then, Trump went to the Middle East and Europe. While in Europe he violated the old proverb, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.” By the time Trump returned to the US, his standing among world leaders was pretty nearly ruined.

    But not totally ruined, there may have been some hope, and he still got along with the Orb People.

    But then, PAREXIT happened and the Trump is now on the very edge of being a full on pariah globally, and the US is teetering on the edge of utter irrelevance in the areas of diplomacy, trade, or anything that requires cooperation or conversation. The following graphic is optimistic, allowing for a tiny bit of hope which we assume Trump will erase within the next week or two.

    And that is the true meaning of PAREXIT

    This all sounds bad but it can be good, and here’s why. Once the rest of the world is allowed to no longer take the US seriously, and more importantly, once the rest of the world is required to not take the US seriously for their own preservation and protection, then they can do something about trump and the Republicans.

    For example, if other countries are trying to meet Paris goals, they may need to suspend trade with the US. If you are Argentina and you are mostly non-fossil fuel powered, you can’t really buy cars or electronic parts from the Dirty US, can you? You’ll get them from Germany or France. If you are Mexico, and you are trying to meet Paris goals, you can’t let American based airlines land in your country. It is not Trump that is going to shut down all the trade agreements. It is everyone else.

    When US business that supply manufactured good and technology overseas are shut down by the Paris countries (= all the countries) and all those nice people in Wisconsin and Michigan who want to fly down to the Maya Riviera next January can’t, the disastrous nature of Trump’s decisions and Trump himself will gain special meaning.

    And it goes on from there. The US has to negotiate and communicate and get along. Remember just a few days ago when the UK intelligence services said they would stop sharing certain information with the US because of photos from Manchester being released? That was a line of crap. The photos were released to news agencies by a British based source. That was something else going on. It was the UK intelligence services creating an opportunity to “USEXIT” the special relationship before it became a disaster, because trust with the US was gone. Just to be clear, the thing that keeps getting called the “special relationship” is not just some valentine’s day card aphorism. It has a specific meaning. It means that the US and the UK share intelligence between each other at the same level that we share intelligence within our own services. No other two countries do that, or maybe a couple but not most. The UK has been for years in a special place within that special relationship, having experienced the worst case of double-agent caused loss of trust ever, years ago, and ever since then the Americans have been able to hold the UK’s feet to the fire and make them feel bad whenever necessary. It was like the UK had an affair and the spouse (the US) could never really trust them again. Now, with Trump, the shoe is on the other foot, an the UK is seriously reconsidering the marriage.

    Every single thing the US does from now on will be tainted, until Trump is gone and not replaced by the equivalent. The US is now a second-level power. It is now Russia, China, and the EU (with Germany leading) that run the world with Japan.

    Look for big moves. Look for the “G-7 minus one” because if you are the other 6 countries in the G-7, you do not want Trump at the table. Maybe Mexico will build a wall and make Trump pay for it. Other things. Many other things.

    PAREXIT is not about Paris or the climate. It is about the end of American exceptionalism, and there are both bad and good things about that.

    And now the other things. Some of this is from before PAREXIT but very much related.

    A Veteran’s Day warning: Trump’s climate policies will create more war, more refugees

    Donald Trump’s climate policies would create dozens of failed states south of the U.S. border and around the world. They would lead to hundreds of millions of refugees and more authoritarian demagogues like Trump himself.

    Trump’s policies would assure that a tremendous number of people become veterans of one of the ever-growing number of climate-related conflicts.

    Trump just cemented his legacy as America’s worst-ever president

    Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris treaty is a mostly symbolic act. America’s pledges to cut its carbon pollution were non-binding, and his administration’s policies to date had already made it impossible for America to meet its initial Paris climate commitment for 2025. The next American president in 2020 can re-enter the Paris treaty and push for policies to make up some of the ground we lost during Trump’s reign.

    However, withdrawing from the Paris treaty is an important symbolic move…

    REFERENDUM NOVEMBER 3, 2020 ON TRUMP’S WITHDRAWAL FROM PARIS AGREEMENT NOVEMBER 4, 2020

    Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement means that the United States formally abdicates its role as world leader on November 4, 2020. By coincidence, the United States will hold a referendum vote – and, make no mistake, it will be a referendum vote – on November 3, 2020.

    RL Miller, cofounder of Climate Hawks Vote, states: “Trump’s fuck you to the world redoubles our determination to end his regime. We will take back Congress in 2018, expose him for the traitor and grifter that he is, and elect climate candidates up and down the ballot, culminating in the election of a climate hawk President on November 3, 2020 to restore America’s place in the world.”

    Paris Agreement: What Experts Say vs. What the White House Says

    In President Trump’s speech today announcing his intention to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, there were several false and misinformed statements.

    Trump falsely claims Paris deal has a minimal impact on warming

    In a speech from the White House Rose Garden filled with thorny lies and misleading statements, one pricks the most: Trump claimed that the Paris climate deal would only reduce future warming in 2100 by a mere 0.2°C. White House talking points further assert that “according to researchers at MIT, if all member nations met their obligations, the impact on the climate would be negligible… less than .2 degrees Celsius in 2100.”

    The Director of MIT’s System Dynamics Group, John Sterman, and his partner at Climate Interactive, Andrew Jones, quickly emailed ThinkProgress to explain, “We are not these researchers and this is not our finding.”

    Trump’s Paris exit: climate science denial industry has just had its greatest victory

    The foundation for Trump’s dismissal of the Paris deal – and for the people who pushed him the hardest to do it – is the rejection of the science linking fossil-fuel burning to dangerous climate change.

    Or rather, Trump’s rejection of the Paris deal was built on the flimsy, cherry-picked and long-debunked talking points of an industry built to manufacture doubt about climate science. Once you fall for those arguments, making an economic case suddenly feels plausible.

    Trump Abandons Paris Climate Deal At Bidding of Fossil Fuel Interests

    Condemnation from environmental groups was swift.

    “President Trump’s decision to exit the Paris Climate Agreement sends a dangerous signal to the rest of the world that the United States values fossil fuel industry profits over clean energy innovation and the health and well-being of our citizens,” Earthworks’ Executive Director, Jennifer Krill said in a statement. “The over 12 million people living within a half mile of an oil and gas facilities deserve action to reduce air pollution, not head-in-the-sand climate denial.”

    Tobacco To Fossil Fuels: Tracing the Roots of Trump’s Claims on Paris Climate Deal

    To understand why President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the global Paris climate agreement, we might start by looking at the sources he relied on to justify his decision.

    But we’re not going to start there, but we will end there.

    Instead, let’s go back to the early 1990s….

    We’ll always have….oh, never mind

    The Paris Climate Agreement represents rational order. It aligns the planet’s nation-states behind a common understanding of our gravest collective threat. It provides a weak but coherent structure for needed actions. Flawed and tentative though it is, it plants a stake in the ground for humanity’s collective will to save itself. It memorializes what global climate sanity there is.

    That’s why Trump can’t stand it….

    Withdrawal From Paris Climate Accord Makes Covfefe Sense

    For the first time in history, the United States has removed itself from a worldwide agreement negotiated to protect the world’s atmosphere.

    Trump’s reputation as a dealmaker is a sham, walking away from Paris proves it

    His decision Thursday to abandon the Paris climate agreement proves he is in reality one of the worst dealmakers in history.

    Of course, with six bankruptcies and an astounding 4,000 lawsuits over three decades, Trump has always been less of a dealmaker and more of a con man, as Michael Bloomberg and so many others have described him.

    The world needs the U.S. in fight against climate change

    President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement is not only bad for the country, it’s bad for the world.

    The Paris Agreement is the fruit of more than 20 years of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The accord was struck almost exactly 50 years after researchers presented President Johnson with the first official expert report warning of the dangers from burning large amounts of fossil fuels.