Harvey the Hurricane will hit Texas roughly between Corpus Christi and Victoria (but stay tuned for exact details).
Harvey is passing over water that is significantly warmer than usual, owing to global warming. This storm was too disorganized to even, under normal conditions, to have a name, just a day or so. But, when this storm hits Texas late this week (maybe by the time you are reading this) it is likely to be a Category III storm.
Then, after landfall, the storm will hang around that area for a while dumping huge amounts of rain on the Texas flatness.
The target area may have 15 inches of rain or more over fairly large areas. There may be spots with more than 25 inches. This is one of those storms that requires the weather forecasters to add new colors to their usual maps.
The last “major hurricane” (Category 3 or larger) to hit the US was Wilma in 2005.
This is an area with abundant oil extraction and processing facilities which are subject to damage from large storms.
Since the ocean has risen since the last major storm surge in this area, local residents and businesses need to make an adjustment in their expectations. If you are in the area look at the National Weather Service’s science based information on storm surges. They have some new tools available. Good thing they have not been removed yet!
For more on the link between this storm and climate change, see THIS.
Added Aug 24 9:30PM
This is probably not going to happen, but …
— Greg Carbin (@GCarbin) August 25, 2017
We don’t know how strong this storm is going to be, but a lot of experts are saying they are above average worried.
UPDATE: Friday AM
Despite rumors of weakening, the storm continues to strengthen. The main change in forecast is that the center of the storm’s expected landfall is father south than expected, away from Houston, but Houston will still receive a great deal of rain, maybe most of the high rainfall amounts.
Storm surges of up to 9 feet or more are possible around Victoria and Corpus Christi.