Gingrich and Perry both have two digits but are being doubled by the front runers. Michele Bachmann is hanging on to second to last place with 6%.
Apropos my earlier post on this, here’s what this means: Predicting the outcome of the Republican Primary process from this race, we can say with reasonable confidence that the GOP will be fielding a white male or may or may not be a Mormon, a Libertarian or a Dark Horse Conservative.
The polls going into this stage of the primary race showed Romney a tiny bit ahead of Paul with Santorum, Gingrich and Perry (in that order) trailing in late December, with very little change in that configuration just two days ago. Assuming the pattern being reported by major news networks (Romney, Paul and Santorum in a close race at the top) this means that Santorum has moved significantly forward, or was somehow being underrepresented in earlier polling. It is probably safest to assume the former.
UPDATE: At just after midnight Iowa time, with 99% of the results in, Rick Santorum has 25% of the votes is the winner of the Iowa Caucuses by 18 votes over second place Mitt Romnmey. Ron Paul is a close third with 21% of the votes. Gingrich has 13%, Rick Perry 10%, Michele Bachmann 5% and John Huntsman a trace.
It is starting to look like Perry will be withdrawing, and I assume that a fair percentage of his votes will go to Bachmann, so she may rise, in effect, from mid single digits to upper-mid single digits before the week is out, but of course, that only refers to Iowans, and hardly any of them live in New Hampshire, the next stop on this train’s journey. Long journey. Like Michele Bachmann says:
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Update: Santorum 25%, Romney 25%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 13%
I have finally reached the point in my political evolution where I can say that I regret the part of my life when I would sing Google Ron Paul without irony.
@ ^ Cogwheel : That’s a real song eh? Not heard of it. Is it any good?
I still reckon Romney is a shoe-in for the Republican nom.
So I guess this means Santorum is the newest Not-Mitt.
I think it’d be hilarious (though also horrific) if Santorum got the nomination and picked Bachmann as his running-mate. From an ethnographic standpoint it’d be fascinating to watch.
From a safe distance, that is. Say, Mars.
BBC world news here :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16404413
Santorum surges from behind – the latest Not-Romney to be thrown up in desperation as a short-lived alternative before burning out like a blazing meteor that disappears as quickly as you see it in the sky vanishing high in the atmosphere as though it never was.
Real question : Who will be Mitt’s running mate and will the Mittser be able to beat Obama in 2012?
I’m guessing no but if the eonomy really goes further down the S-bend it could get dicey for Barack. Still Romney is the least worst Republican besides Huntsman who has no hope at all so things could be worse.
Greta Christina has this post up now :
http://freethoughtblogs.com/greta/2012/01/04/santorum-surges-from-behind/
with some Santorum jokes.
(This Aussie doesn’t really know enough on US politics to judge how good / apt or otherwise they are. Only really just recently heard of this Santorum dude.)
@StevoR – It was by one of his supporters. I can’t remember whether it was during his 2004 or 2008 campaign. Having the damnedest time trying to find the thing again…
.. & breaking news apparently Mitt Romney has actually won according to SBS World News on TV.
@7. Cogwheel : Cheers for that.
Folks see :
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1616355/World-watches-as-Iowa-kicks-off-White-House-fight
for latest so far on this story or at least the latest I’ve heard/ seen.
What’s with all the Mormons lately?? I understand it’s a sad fact that any candidate must espouse some belief in the supernatural in order to gain the trust of the people. A study recently showed religious people trust atheists about as much as the seediest elements of society. But so many of these candidates have extreme and/or kooky religious views. As much as the “sky is falling” rhetoric from the Ron Paul crowd turns me off, I am glad to see he is doing fairly well so far. He seems like the most rational and least evangelical of the bunch.