The Democrats already won the special elections game. Since the 2016 election, there have been several special elections at the state and federal level, each of which serving as a test of the hypothesis that people are turning away from Trump, or the Republican Party, or Putin, or something along those lines. Overall, Democrats have won this long running contest hands down. Either a Democrat pushed out a Republican in a seat normally held by Republicans, or the Democrat lost but had an excellent showing, typically costly to the pertinent unit of the Republican party, in a seat where loss to a Democrat is unthinkable. I should point out that there were races in that first category, where the Democrat won, that were unthinkable Republican losses.

As I understand it, there is one more special election coming up. This is in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District (perhaps this is the last known federal level special election and there are still some state level ones out there, so don’t take this “last one” thing too seriously).

This race fits into the unthinkable category. Republicans have represented this district or its earlier incarnations continuously since 1982, when it was taken by John Kasich. Pat Tiberi (pronounced “tea-berry”) took over in 2000, then resigned, leaving the seat open for this election. It is generally felt that Tiberi is leaving Congress because he is fed up with Washington, and wants to focus on family stuff. Prior to 1982, it swapped back and forth between D and R numerous times. I’ll guess, and it is only a guess but you know I’m right, that the Republican stranglehold on this district since ’82 is a function of redistricting and possibly local voter repression. Because this is how Republicans cheat.

In 2014, Republican incumbent Tiberi beat Democratic Challenger David Tibbs in a 68%-28% rout. In 2016, Tiberi beat challenger Ed Albertson in a 67%-30% rout.

This district went for Trump in 2016 by 8.6%. It went for Obama in ’12 by 3% and in ’08 by 4.6%. The district voted marginally for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

The district is 82% white with the leading minority being black, has a high education rate (nearly 90%) and a modest household income level ($48K, which is below the US median of $54K). So, it is not an upper scale suburban zone, and not a deep red rural zone, but rather, a fairly typical but leaning more towards working class mainly Republican zone where the many of the white people slept through the Obama elections while Blacks voted in higher numbers, probably.

The current D over R percentage nationwide is must under 7%.

So the demographic stats look good for a Democratic win, but the electoral history of the district strongly signals a Republican win. The R’s beat the D’s 2:1 normally. This means that the Democratic candidate really can’t win.

The race is currently between Troy Balderson, Republican, and Danny O’Conner, Democrat. Trump has endorsed Balderson in this tweet:

Troy Balderson of Ohio is running for Congress against a Nancy Pelosi Liberal who is WEAK on Crime & Borders. Troy is the total opposite, and loves our Military, Vets & 2nd Amendment. EARLY VOTING just started with Election Day on August 7th. Troy has my Full & Total Endorsement!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 21, 2018

Cooks, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have been characterizing this race as a toss-up or a lean-Republican.

A Monmouth poll from today shows the race dead even (Balderson up by 1).

So, here is what winning looks like:

Balderson 51%
O’Conner 49%

Or, of course, O’Conner winning. It is possible. But the current Republican strategy of scaring their base to the polls, combined with the usual techniques of voter repression, and the long tradition of sending Republicans to the White House from this district, mean that we do not require O’Conner to win the election for this to be a Democratic Blue Wave win.

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