Tag Archives: Trump

Trump’s orders = two steps back on climate change

Uncategorized, , , , , ,

The science is clear: Human caused global warming is happening and is serious. Building and expanding infrastructure to make it easier to burn fossil fuels is a very bad idea. The Keystone XL pipeline and the Dakota Access pipeline were two such projects, and in recent years, the environmental community, politicians, and others managed to stop these projects.

Today, President Trump signed an executive order that brings these projects back to life and moves them forward.

From Rhea Suh, president of the National Resources Defense Council:

“It’s appalling that Trump wants to throw open our borders to big polluters. Eliminating the national interest determination process, used by both Republican and Democratic administrations for decades, cedes control of our borders to multinational corporations to jam through cross-border infrastructure projects. And it completely shuts out public engagement in decisions that affect our communities, air, water and climate.

“These unprecedented actions could also pave the way for approval of the Dakota Access Pipeline—a project vehemently opposed by the U.S. tribes whose land its crosses and waters it could pollute. Equally troubling, they also revive the Keystone XL pipeline— a tar sands project that would lock our country into, for a generation or more, massive development of among the dirtiest fuels of our past. They pose a grave threat to our water, communities and climate. We will use every tool available to help ensure that they are not built.”

From Climate Hawks Vote:

Climate hawks fought one White House over the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines and we won. We’re going to fight the next one. And we’re going to keep on fighting until we clear the American skies of the fossil-fueled stormfront of Trumpism – and we will, ultimately, prevail.

In the wake of Trump’s election, thousands of our members pledged resistance, including peaceful civil disobedience if necessary. We’re now calling on all Americans — including political candidates and elected officials — to pledge to resist these climate-destroying pipelines.

From Price Of Oil:

Today, President Trump will be signing executive orders reportedly to fast-track approval of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines. In response, David Turnbull, Campaigns Director at Oil Change International released the following statement:

“Both the Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines will never be completed, no matter what President Trump and his oil-soaked cabinet try to do. Trump’s first days in office saw massive opposition, marking the beginning of four years of resistance to his dangerous policies. We stopped Keystone XL and Dakota Access before and we’ll do it again. These are fights Trump and his bullies won’t win.”

It appears that this isn’t just hippie punching by Trump, but rather, a shrewd business deal for someone. According to DeSmogBlog:

As DeSmog has reported, Donald Trump’s top presidential campaign energy aide Harold Hamm stands to profit if both pipelines go through.

Hamm, the founder and CEO of Continental Resources who sat in the VIP box at Trump’s inauguration and was a major Trump campaign donor, would see his company’s oil obtained from hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) in the Bakken Shale flow through both lines.

Trump has suggested that these projects would produce tens of thousands of jobs. This is only true in Alt-Universe. In Real-Universe, they will only produce a few dozen jobs long term. In fact, making the movement of a commodity more efficient, which pipeline builder argue pipelines do, reduces the number of jobs to move that commodity, by definition.

The American Auto Industry Moves South: West Wing vs. Donald Trump

Uncategorized, , ,

The West Wing Version:

Josh, Toby, Leo, and Donna are in Leo’s office. They have just gotten word that a major auto manufacturer plans to build a plant in Mexico, and will likely close a corresponding plant in Michigan. Josh is pacing, Leo is behind his desk, Donna is standing near the door, and Toby is sitting in a chair smoking an unlit cigar. All four had just come from a poker game with the President and others.

Josh Leyman: Screw the auto industry. If they decide to move another plant to Mexico, we just slap a 35% tariff on them!

Leo Mcgarry: That won’t go well, Josh, and you know it. A tariff like that would send the Mexican economy in to a spiral. That won’t help the regional economy in more ways than I can mention.

Toby Ziegler [Voice raising noticeably at the end of the sentence]: “Not for nothin’, but the last time a leak from the White House even intimated that we might take retaliatory action against industry in Mexico, the Peso dropped like a slider in Yankee stadium!

Josh Leyman [Frustrated]: So what are you saying, we just let them move their plant, move these jobs? We made promises to the Unions. I made promises to the union.

Donna Moss: You made promises to me too, Josh. I don’t see you getting upset about that.

Josh Leyman [Casually]: Yeah but that’s you, who cares.

The President enters the room. Toby and Leo stand, but the president waves them down. Leo sits down but Toby remains standing. Donna back a foot or so towards the door. Josh put on his little boy face.

President Bartlet: That’s right, we made promises. We made promises to the auto industry, and we made promises to the American people. As I recall, we’ve even kept some of them. But we also made a promise to be smart about all of this, about the choices we make. I chose to believe that the American People, in all their wisdom, despite Hamilton’s original incredulity about that, picked a boring Economics Nobel Laureate to run this place because they wanted us to be smart about some of this stuff at least some of the time!

Joshua Leyman: That’s right, Sir. But what do we do?

The President and Leo look meaningfully at each other. The President walks out of the room without another word. The rest of the staff turn to Leo, expectantly.

Joshua Leyman [directed at Leo]: Well?

[cue music]

Leo McGarry: We do nuthin’ … Absolutely nuthin. If we say a word that makes us look like we’re even going to send our Great Aunt Tillie down to Mexico to complain about this, the Peso will be in the dumps, and nine automobile companies will scurry south of the border to set up plants in an economy so devalued they’ll be able to produce the same car they would produce here for 30,000 for the cost of a box of donut holes and a cup of coffee.

Joshua Leyman [resigned voice, moving to head out of the room]: Yeah, I suppose the best thing to do is sometimes to do nothing.

Donna Moss [coy look]: And you should be good at that, Josh.

[fade to black, flentle music]

Trump Version

[Donald Trump is sitting on the toilet, paging through his facebook feed. He notices a news item about an American Auto company’s plans to close a plant in Michigan, and open a similar plant in Mexico.]

Donald Trump [yelling]: Kellyanne get in here! Where is that Conway bitch?

Kellyanne Conway [from outside bathroom door, off stage]: The bathroom door is locked, Mr. President Elect. What can I get for you?

Donald Trump [yelling]: Tweet this: US Auto co moves to Mexico? I don’t think so! 35% Tariff! Make America Great Again!

Kellyanne Conway: Yes sir, is that all sir?

Donald Trump [yelling]: That’s all, go away.

[ten minutes later]

Donald Trump [yelling]: Kellyanne get in here! Where is tha…

Kellyanne Conway: I’m right here sir, what can I do for you

Donald Trump [yelling]: Tweet this! I’ll make American businesses play fair! Not like Crooked Hillary!

Kellyann Conway: Thank you sir.

[Next scene, two weeks later, Kellyanne Conway is outside by a news stand, purchasing a copy of the Washington Post. The camera zooms in on the headline.]

WaPo Headline reads:

“Mexican Economy Tanks. Entire North American Auto Industry Initiates Plans to Move to Mexico.

‘I sure hope Donald’s wall has a big door in it to let some of these cars into the US. If anybody wants to ever drive a new car, that is!’ quips GM CEO.


THE END

Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Over Time vs. Obama: No Honeymoon

Politics, , , , ,

Using mainly data from this poll, and RCP’s approval ratings page for Obama 2008, we get this graph.

Trump’s approval rating was never high, and at the moment of the election and shortly after, when the approval ratings for a president have gone up for every election since polls existed, Trump’s numbers have dropped.

The Science of Spiteful Donald Trump

Uncategorized, , , ,

This is a descriptive model of Donald Trump’s behavior, which ultimately works out to a prediction that Donald Trump won’t last very long. In an evolutionary sense, at least.

I’ve found that many people use the term “spite” incorrectly. Many assume it has to do with vitriol or nastiness, or otherwise, is motivated negative behavior of some kind. This is not even close to the scientific definition of the term. A daffodil plant can carry out an act of spite, and a daffodil plant is unlikely to engage in motivated behavior.

Spite involves carrying out an act where the ultimate cost to oneself exceeds the net benefit to oneself, at the same time the recipient of the behavior experiences a net cost.

Trump’s anti John Lewis tweeting is an example of spite. It was an attack on Lewis, but it caused huge problems for Trump, and strengthened his opposition.

Since Trump’s tweet may actually have benefited his victim and may have done very little harm to anyone else, it is actually possible that it was an act of altruism.

The pertinent theory comes from behavioral biology, which many years ago influenced economics theory, so you see the concept in both evolutionary theory and game theory today. (Because most people incorrectly assume that economists are smarter than everyone else, except possibly physicists, it is often assume that this set of theories comes from economics and then was borrowed by biology, but the reverse is actually true. See work by Sewall Wright and Robert Trivers.)

This classic theory can be classically represented by the following classic graphic:

ClassicBehavioralTheoryAlturismSpiteEtc

The actor, called here the “donor,” can help or hurt the recipient. In this case, the potential act probably has to do with nuts, since these are squirrels. But it can be any act as long as the act itself incurs a cost for the actor. (The cost is part of the definition of acts.) Then, the actor and the recipient, eventually, count up the net result. The actor can expend energy and incur risk by taking a nut away from the recipient. The recipient runs away. This is an act of selfishness on the part of the actor. The actor can give a nut to the donor. That is an act of altruism. The actor and recipient can share the nuts under a tree, and thus share the job of keeping an eye out for predators. They are both losing because they need to share the nuts, but since there are a gazillion nuts the loss is very close to zero. Since two sets of eyes are more than twice as good as one set of eyes for feeding squirrels, both gain. That is cooperation. And so on.

Trup’s Attack on John Lewis was spite

Trump seems immune to the idea of forethought when he tweets. I sincerely — and this is not an ablist remark but a legitimate question — suggest he is a victim of Tourette’s. Even the most obvious degree of restraint is like water cast on granite. Alternatively, it is possible that Trump sees himself as invulnerable to legitimate criticism — all those who disagree with him are mere losers, he seems ready to declare. He does seem to have megalomaniac tendencies.

Whatever the reason, a pair of 140 character missives by Trump can be relatively benign or incredibly offensive, but this time were very self destructive.

Susanne.Posel-Headline.News_.Official-donald.trump_.tweet_.john_.lewis_occupycorporatism

John Lewis was up to the fight:

Lewis said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday, that he doesn’t believe Trump is a “legitimate president” and that he wouldn’t be attending the presidential inauguration for the first time in his 30-year political career, citing the intelligence community’s explosive findings over Russian hacking of the presidential election.

More here.

The material harm to Trump and his presidency from this act of spite is growing, as the tweet is causing a cascade of effects..

The number of Democratic members of Congress saying they will boycott Donald Trump’s inauguration on Friday has increased to 26.
Many have cited as a reason the president-elect’s recent attack on civil rights icon and fellow congressman John Lewis.

There is also a petition.

See also: BBC – Democratic Inauguration boycott grows

In the end, what started out as a harmful stab against an opponent caused more harm to Trump than benefit. If the tweets also harmed Lewis or Liberal Democrats, then this was probably an act of spite. If, and look at the squirrels above, this was an act that benefited Lewis, Liberals, and Democrats, and hurt Trump, then it was an act of altruism. Maybe the Democrats should send Trump a thank you note!

Trump vs. CIA chief

Everybody knows that in Washington, the story is usually the comment or reaction, not the thing. It is all very meta. The story is the story, not what the story is about. We have a new term these days bandied about to stand in for thinking about this: The narrative. You control the narrative. Just hope no one asks you to explain what a narrative is. This can all seem very senseless, but it is also a little bit complex, thus pretty much beyond the range of Trump’s level of thinking. And for this reason, perhaps, Trump has not learned when to shut up.

The result is that when a moderately interesting story comes along, Tump picks it up and bludgeons himself about he head and neck with it. Five year old’s do this. The John Lewis story is an example. Rather than ignoring a complaint from a liberal democrat, he victimized a widely loved civil rights leader on the eve of MLK celebrations.

With respect to the intelligence business, Trump is attacking the outgoing director of the CIA for absolutely no reason, and this is causing a reaction that will harm Trump far more than his comment could possibly have benefited him.

In a recent tweet, Trump accused the outgoing CIA chief of being behind the “leak” of the Trump Dossier. Meanwhile, the CIA chief notes that

…Trump lacks a full understanding of the threat Moscow poses to the United States, delivering a public lecture to the president-elect that further highlighted the bitter state of Trump’s relations with American intelligence agencies.

The Dead Zone
The Dead Zone
More here.

Trump’s reaction to the widespread acceptance of Russian influence on the election, and the as yet less widely accepted — but very credible — Trump Dossier is to elevate these problems to the level of international incident. In his effort to protect himself from political fire, he is holding up a baby in front of his attackers. Unfortunately, the baby is all of use, Americans, his country, and beyond.

Trump takes big risks with American security

This is yet another example of spite, and a good one, because it shows that spite does not require malice. It can arise from simple ignorance.

I think, and prove me wrong if you like, that the Trump transition team is, collectively, as dumb as a broken brick. When they saw all these “presidential appointments” on the list of things to consider, they assumed that they were to replace them all on the 20th of January. So, they fired everyone effective that day including all of the ambassadors around the world.

This is one of several examples of misunderstanding the system, and in this case, putting our nation at risk.

A plan by Donald Trump to toss out dozens of ambassadors on the day he takes office risks months of uncertainty in some of the most sensitive parts of the world, according to several experts.

More here.

You might argue that this is not spite because it was just stupid. But the evolutionary biological theory of behavior counts this as spite because motivation is not related to the definition. By keeping motivation out of the definition, the theory is more general. For example, a plant can carry out a spiteful act. That makes the theory a hell of a lot more useful.

In this case, the Trump team gained nothing from their decision, but they risk causing innumerable problems world wide, hopefully mostly small ones, that put them in the hole with respect to foreign policy literally on day one. Nay, minute one.

Spite ends things

Look again at the chart above, and consider examples of spite in nature.

You can’t easily find them. When you do see them, they usually end up being acts of altruism that are explained as acts of cooperation or selfishness by taking the analysis to the next level. A squirrel allows another squirrel to forage near itself even when there aren’t a gazillion nuts under the tree, and is taking a real hit on food access for this reason. That looks like altruism, which is even more stupid, evolutionarily, than spite. But it turns out that the recipient of that act it the actor-squirrel’s offspring. By benefiting an offspring even with a cost to herself, the mother squirrel gains an ultimate genetic benefit.

I do not see how any of Trump’s acts of spite benefit him other than to strengthen the love he receives from his relatively small base. His spite erodes his support at the softer end, invigorates (and increases funding for, I’ll guess) his opponents, causes problems for his administration that will make him and his entire presidency less effective. Ultimately, he will spite his way into impeachment.

We don’t see true acts of spite in nature very often because that sort of behavior, or more exactly, the behavioral facility to make the generation of such behavior even possible, is selected against.

If Donald Trump does not learn, or is not restrained, almost literally, by his staff, he will spite himself into the annals of the Darwin Awards, in a political sense. Spite ends things. Spite will end Trump.

There is no way to sugar coat this: Trump is a Russian asset, according to me.

Uncategorized, , , , , , , ,

ADDED: It has been suggested that I clarify an important point about this post.

So, dear reader, please understand that the information provided here is my best attempt at analysis of the information that I have available. There is clearly conjecture here. So, of course, read all this with a grain of salt. The size of that grain of salt can be as small or large as you like. I also amended the title of the post.

-gtl

ADDED Feb 1

I’ll just be putin’ this link here: http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/01/news/fsb-kaspersky-arrests/index.html?sr=twcnni020217fsb-kaspersky-arrests0129AMStoryPhoto&linkId=34031636

The story that I outlined on this blog on November 10th was widely known in the US intelligence community and has been developed and elaborated upon in numerous stages. Pretty much everything we need to know is now known, and we await the appearance of the videos currently in possession of Russian agents, and some other key pieces of information. But the story is credible, outlined in moderate detail, and shocking.

To get up to date, read this.

As I have already noted, I find this story very believable because I already knew the broad outlines and some of the details. I came across this via a contact closer to the famous MI6 spy who put together the dossier than most people are to Kevin Bacon. Over the last several days, more information has been made available, and it would now appear, if these sources are accurate, that Russian intelligence has in its possession multiple copies of videos showing Trump in some sort of sexual activity. Multiple things, multiple occasions, multiple locations in Russia, possibly in both Moscow and St Petersburg, according to a source within the CIA (see link above).

There are also financial dealings worthy of use in blackmail.

Obtaining this kind of information on a person with influence is called “developing an asset” and here, Donald Trump is the asset. So, in just over a week, the executive branch of the United States will be run by a person who is arguabley a Russian FSB asset. We hope it is not true, but if it is, there is no way to sugar coat this: We are screwed. And, personally, I’m convinced this evidence is reliable. (I’ve discussed elsewhere, see link above, why I think it is reliable.)

We know that the US Congress Gang of Eight had all this information weeks ago. People with links into the intelligence community were aware of this report. People like Mad Dog Mattis, who may become our Secretary of Defense, and who have taken an oath to protect and defend the US from all enemies foreign and domestic, knew about this. Let me restate something I’ve mentioned elsewhere. According to my contacts in the intelligence community, a) this information was generally known, b) this information was not unexpected given the usual methods of the intelligence agencies and Trump’s weaknesses, and c) the source, which is now publicly known, is among the most highly regarded agents alive today. It is becoming increasingly fashionable in the media to discredit this source. An MSNBC commenter yesterday morning called it “apocryphal” (tough, when Senator Franken pointed out that this word, “apocryphal,” may not mean what she thinks it means, she seemed to withdraw her statement). Bernie bots are resisting this information because they really want to blame Hillary Clinton for this loss, and if the Russians are in with Trump, that takes it away from them.

But when it comes down to it, the evidence is both unproven and highly likely to be true, in my opinion. And — this is important — I’m taking my cues from the same people the Gang of Eight and the various other leaders are taking their cue from. It looks to me like they are all, to an individual, currently engaged in committing an act of treason. They will either have to convincingly disprove the ever hardening Trump-Russia connection or live up to their decision to stand by.

What would be the consequences? Many and severe. Here is a quick theoretical look at one of the more obvious possibilities: a convenient arrangement whereby the Russians control key US decisions that will have great positive, and personal, consequences to Putin, and very negative consequences to the US and to the entire world.

One of Trump’s most important appointments is his Secretary of State.

The likely appointment of Rex Tillerson is widely seen as an affront to the Earth’s climate, and as a prelude to a period of entrenched denial of climate change. That is probably true. But I strongly suspect, and it is starting to become more generally apparent if you are watching the reporting, that this is not the main reason Tillerson is being placed in this position. Most people also assume that Russia would benefit from a Russia-Friendly Trump administration because Russia wants to weaken NATO, and invade a neighbor here or there. I’m sure that is part of it, but again, there is something more immediate afoot.

Tillerson is being placed in this position because Vladimir Putin, Trump’s handler, wants Exxon-Mobil and possibly other international agencies to get on with the business of exploiting Russian oil using technology that the Russians are a bit thin on. This will involve the US lifting sanctions on Russia. While wary Americans are waiting for a Russian invasion of Syria or the cancellation of the Paris agreement, the sanctions will be first ignored, then given special exemption, then weakened, then lifted. The Republicans in Congress will facilitate this because they have no intellectual or emotional power to govern, having jettisoned those qualities the day the first black man was elected President of the United States, as they vowed to make removal of the uppity negro from office their number one, and in fact, sole, objective.

Eight years is apparently enough time to gut a political party of even the smallest iota of ability to govern.

Then, of course, there will also be the expected weakening of NATO, the invasions into neighboring territory unchecked by American interest, and all that.

The other developing problem is with China. Trump and Tillerson have been waving swords at China all along, the most recent coming in yesterday’s hearings when Tillerson came an inch away from declaring war on China in the South China Sea. We would be prudent to assume, if the worst is true, that this attack on China comes at the request of Trump’s handlers in Moscow. The risk here is a trade war. Or a world war. Or worse.

This Tillerson scenario is increasingly buttressed by the facts and the context. It will be very interesting to see how what Tillerson is saying in hearings holds up with his actions, should he be confirmed.

At the moment, there seems to be only one way to address this problem in the short term, and the corruption of the Republican Party makes this nearly impossible. Impeachment would likely be successful, but the House has to initiate it, and the Senate has to conduct it. As long as both are in Republican hands, we would have to trust the Republican party to do the right thing. That, of course is impossible. They will never, ever do the right thing. Republicans will commit treason before they will stand up as patriots for America. How do we know this? Because they are doing it right now! Everything that is now publicly known about Donald Trump being handled as a Russian asset has been known by those in the know inside the beltway for weeks. For many, some of this was known since the summer. For virtually everyone, most of this was known before the election.

The act of treason being carried out by the Republican Party right now has been going on far longer than one might expect for an entity that would eventually come to its senses. They are not going to change course. They are in it until the end.

So, we are left with Plan B: Impeachment of Donald Trump after the midterms, if the citizens of the United States can get past their deeply held racism and sexism to replace many of the Republican members of the Congress, both houses.

Addendum: Donald Trump Regularly Banged Russian People. It Is Said.

This is interesting, if you can stand listening to it.
Start at about 4:10 for the discussion of Donald Tump banging Russian people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhqUbW35R3Q

Also of note, near the end when “AJ” threatens to date Trump’s daughter, “Anything you have, I can take from you.” An oligarch in the making!

One minor takeaway from this interview, relevant to those of you unfamiliar with New York (The City), is this: Donald Trump talks funny, both his accent and the way he constructs streams of non-sentences. This is, of course, how New Yorkers talk unless they are in polite company. I assume Donald Trump does not regard America as polite company.

Also, all the talk about winning. Trump is a winner. The rest of you are losers, I hope you know that. Amiright?

Wrong.

What Does Rex Tillerson Get Out Of Being Secretary Of State?

Uncategorized, , , , , , ,

He’s trying, in the hearings, to not let it look this way, but the truth is that he and Exxon Mobile stand to benefit a great deal from a Tillerson SOC. Also, Russia will benefit a great deal.

Putting it a slightly different way, Tillerson’s appointment makes the most sense of you replace “Trump” with “Putin” in sentences that refer to who the leader of the United States is.

The composite graphic above explains this. The context for those graphics is here:

Is Mad Dog Mattis Getting Cold Feet?

Uncategorized, , , ,

Probably not, but it is worth brief consideration.

Mainstream media is reporting that USMC General James Mad Dog Mattis’s Senate confirmation hearing for Secretary of Defense is stalled because Mattis is a no show for a related hearing in the House. The reason for the cancellation of his appearance is at this writing a mystery, but it is known that it was the Trump transition team’s word to the Senate, not the other way around, that underlies the delay.

Here is what I was originally going to suggest: Mad Dog Mattis, as I have previously written, is in the position of breaking his solemn oath of patriotism by working for the Putin-Trump White House. He has sworn to protect and defend the Constitution bla bla bla from all enemies foreign bla bla bla. Weeks ago, it was generally known inside the beltway and the DC intelligence community that the Russians had already made Trump. There was no way that someone like Mattis would not know this. I expected him to come forward with the truth, to refuse his nomination, and to open up the dialog on what to do next. At the time, various individuals were trying to contact Mattis to do this. I sent him a note myself.

But he didn’t do that, and the widely known but secret information about Trump came out apparently without help from Mattis. Then, suddenly, Mattis isn’t showing up for his confirmation hearing. I figured, that’s it … Mad Dog grew a conscious. Or found his old one. Or whatever. He’s going to walk away from the Trump administration.

So, that is what I was going to write. Something hopeful.

But I looked into it a bit more and that may not be what is happening at all.

This is all unconfirmed, but look over the next few days for reporting indicating internal strife not over ethics, morality, patriotism, or treason. Rather, Mattis is in a fight with the Trump transition team over a wide range of decisions the team has to make. I don’t know how it is normally done, but it may be the case that this nominee for Secretary of Defense wants to have a big say in other military related appointments, and the Trump team seems to not be going along with this. This will be a somewhat complicated story, but lacking real human interest or sex or exploding objects won’t likely get much attention.

Apparently this has been going on for a couple of weeks, and we are just now seeing, publicly, the tip of the iceberg with Mattis’ Senate showing being called off.

Will Trump Appear On The Cover Of Vogue?

Uncategorized, , , , , ,

Donald Trump is meeting, this morning, with the editor of Vogue and the owners of Vogue’s overarching publishing company.

This can only mean one thing. We will be seeing The Donald on the cover of the famous magazine sooner than later.

This revelation comes after a long night of sweaty drunken tweets by the Oligarch, in which he compared himself favorably too Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The good news: Trump’s mind is on things other than how to run the United States government. That has to be a good thing.

screen-shot-2017-01-06-at-9-37-34-am

The End Of America The Free, America The Brave

Uncategorized, , , , , , , ,

Putin probably owns Trump. In the past, Trump has spent enough high profile time traveling in and out of Russia, that any smart intelligence agency would have long ago gotten the goods on such a sloppy self absorbed person. Assume there are movies. Young girls. Whatever. Putin probably owns Trump. The ex KGB officer probably owns a lot of people, a lot of foreign rich or influential individuals. That’s how these things work.

Trump is a man that relies on the image of great personal wealth. But, if he has great personal wealth it is a mere couple of billion or so. Alternatively, he may have mostly debt and a few hundred million handy. Nobody knows, and he’s not releasing that information. The point is, he views himself as righteously rich, but he may not be as rich as he considered his right. There are a lot of hungry people in this world, and he is not one of them. But he probably thinks he is.

Putin is the richest person on the planet now or ever. He beats second place Bill Gates by several billion. Putin has gotten this rich by exploiting his position as the permanent leader of Russia (despite a democracy there).

Did I mention that Putin probably owns Trump?

Trump is going to separate his business interests from his activities as president using the following procedure:

1) Put the offspring in charge of the business.

2) Place the offspring in the room at all important presidential meetings.

3) Claim that he is keeping his business holdings and his job as president separate.

Did I mention that Putin probably owns Trump? And that Trump wants to garner great wealth?

Dots, connect thyselves:

Trump is driven to become more wealthy than he is. This is his personality, and it may even be financially necessary for him. Putin has owned Trump for a long time. One question we have now is this: How long ago did Putin approach Trump with the idea that, with Russian help, Trump could become president, piles of money could flow into the Trump coffers, and all Trump had to do is to allow Putin carry out certain geopolitical acts that, after all, might even be good for business?

Do American intelligence agencies have a record of Trump-Putin communication, direct or indirect, over a long period of time? Have they been talking? For how long? About what?

It would make sense to Trump to help Putin carry out one of Russia’s greatest long term goals, a goal held since the 17th century, assuming Trump comes out of the deal rich, not in debt. Russia has always had a landlocked problem. Sure, Russia has vast coastal regions but they are mostly in the Arctic or nearly so. Russia has always lusted for a route to the Indian Ocean, a route to the Mediterranean, and a better route to the Atlantic. And, breadbaskets and buffer zones and mining resources and all of that. What has kept Russia from doing this?

Well, initially, not much, and that is why the Soviet Union was so big. But the expansion of the Soviet Union was hampered by the Americans who, for example, carried out a proxy war with the USSR in Afghanistan. NATO has kept Russia from re-expanding its direct influence across Europe. Various coalitions have kept Russia from invading West Asian territories such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria. The United States is a, if not the, prime mover behind all of that.

And where I say “is” I think we will soon be saying “was.” Why?

Did I mention that Putin probably owns Trump?

With Trump in Putin’s pocket, Russia will take territory in the Middle East and Europe. Russia and the United States together, under Putin and Trump, will try to destabilize the sleeping dragon, China. We may be looking at new places to have proxy wars, but the proxy wars will not be between the US and Russia. They will be between Russia and NATO or others, with the US interfering on Russia’s behalf, maybe pulling out of Nato, and maybe even joining Russian troops in places like the Middle East or Africa. Perhaps they will be between the US as a Russian proxy and China in Africa where China has been exerting influence for a long time now, or Russia and various European forces in West Asia, or between Russia and some combination of powerful South Asian countries in Afghanistan.

(Note to Trump: Do pull out of Afghanistan as soon as possible so Vlad can get in there. Thanks.)

In January the United States is going to be taken over by a coalition of two oligarchs: Putin and Trump (but Putin probably owns Trump).

So, that’s the America the Free part gone. What about the America the Brave part?

Starting in a few days, we will be led by a coalition of cowards and morons. They are known collectively as the Republicans.

The Republican Party has spent the last few decades training itself to be the most ignorant group of know nothings that ever held power anywhere, beyond the level that could be parodied by the most extreme Monty Python script.

The American GOP will be the ironic hobgoblin of the Russian Patriarch, after decades of consolidating power as the “national security” party. The Party of Reagan will be the Party of Putin. We are already seeing Putin love among Republicans in polls. Republicans like Putin more than they like members of the Democratic Party.

This will be achieved mainly because the core of that party consists of angry anti-intellectual anti-liberal anti-environment hippie punchers, and as long as hippies are being punched, and gays bashed, and people of color intimidated through regular state sponsored or allowed executions, they’re fine with this.

America the Brave is now America the Spiteful Idiot.

Monday, the Electors meet. Is it possible that every single one of the Trump Republican Electors is a blind Trump supporter? No. Many electors were actually elevated to that position earlier in the process, and were supporters of other Republican candidates. It it the case that every single Republican is a Putin Pushing no know-nothing? No, not all of them. Just a large majority of them. Among the Electors there must be some who are not. There must be some Republicans among the electors who understand that Russia is a nice country and all, and that we love the Russian people and all, but that the Putin government is not our friend.

Today, Friday, the Obama administration will do what it should have done months ago, but elected not to for what seemed like good reasons at the time. The President will, essentially, give that CIA briefing that some people got on Friday, to the rest of the country, about Putin’s involvement in the US election.

There will be people who become outraged, a lot of them. Some of them may be influential Republicans. A friend of mine pointed out the ideal scenario: One or more members of the presumed Trump cadre of Cabinet appointees walks off the job, forsakes the Trump administration, in outrage. Imagine Marine General James Mattis publicly noting that he has sworn an oath to protect the United States from all enemies domestic and foreign. Indeed, General Mattis has to do this. He is known to be a very smart guy, one of the more intellectual generals. At the same time, he is known to be fiercely patriotic. He must have figured this out by now. He must have figured out by now that he will be dumping his career of patriotic service to America right into the crapper if he serves in the Trump administration. I assume that he initially figured he should be in there doing what needs to be done with competence. But hopefully he will now, and maybe others proposed for the cabinet as well, realize that this day, this weekend, is the only opportunity to ask the electors to not vote for Trump, to do anything but vote for Trump, in order to stop a Russian takeover of the United States.

Only about 10% of the electors have to do this.

If Trump is not elected, and if the highly unlikely event of the electors simply electing Clinton does not happen, then the US House has a shot at deciding who will be President of the United States. They must choose among the top vote getting three names that the Electors consider. Thusly, the Electors can hand the US house a list of three people, including Clinton, Trump, and one other person, probably a Republicans, for them to chose among.

If that third name is a reasonable individual (for a Republican) or, at least, an established Republican, then perhaps the House will have the bravery, and the love of freedom, to chose that person as the next president.

Half this country is ready to go to the mat to keep Trump, and thus the Russians and who knows who or what else, in power. The other half of this country is willing to go to the mat to stop Trump from doing all that he has promised to do for months. The third half seems to have no interest in any of this. No matter what happens, there is going to be a fight.

People in the middle and on the left are brave, and ready to take on whatever happens. People on the Right are Putin loving Russia-symps who just want to punch some hippies and piss in the lake. And now, we get to find out which of those themes best represents our country. Now, this weekend, Monday.

Holy crap America, what have you done?

Is Turkey Hacking Trump?

Uncategorized, , ,

Newsweek’s Kurt Eichenwald (author of Conspiracy of Fools: A True Story, Serpent on the Rock, and a few other books) is reporting an interesting story this morning.

Here is the short version, as I understand it.

Turkey had a coup. The Turkish government, in particular, President Erdogan, blames naturalized US citizen Fethullah Gülen for that coup, and wants him extradited. The US won’t do that.

President Erdogan and Presumed President Elect Trump had a conversation soon after the election, in which Trump mentioned a key player in the development of the Turkish version of Trump Towers. We may presume this was an effort to get that project special treatment in Turkey.

Trump’s efforts to sidle up to Erdogan backfired, and something different happened. The Erdogan government arrested a key individual related to the Trump project, accusing him of being linked to the Coup.

So, now, we have this situation. President Trump (assuming he becomes president) is under pressure to release Imam Gülen to the Turks else his business dealings with respect to the Turkish Trump Tower project be threatened.

Inauguration day hasn’t even happened yet and we are already seeing Trump’s business empire involved in seemingly nefarious dealings and intrigue. He can’t run a country like this.

Trump was planning to give a news conference on Thursday to describe his plans for separating his businesses from his presidency. That would be appropriate, because the Electors would have a chance to review his plans to see if he is qualified to be president. But yesterday, Trump said he’d hold that news conference in January instead. There is speculation that Trump is essentially hiding out, avoiding talking about Friday’s allegations that the Russians are significantly responsible, according to the CIA, for Trump winning the election. In any event, Trump will not be providing the information necessary for Electors to determine his qualifications, which is their Constitutional responsibility.

Over night, Trump did tweet something about his business plans. According to his over night tweets, he is sticking with the original plans. No blind trust, no divestment, his kids will handle the businesses.

In typical Trump slo mo, he said, “Even though I am not mandated by law to do so, I will be leaving my busineses before January 20th so that I can focus full time on the……”

Then, six minutes later, finished the sentence with “Presidency. Two of my children, Don and Eric, plus executives, will manage them. No new deals will be done during my term(s) in office.”

Nine minutes later he finished the thought and elaborated: “I will hold a press conference in the near future to discuss the business, Cabinet picks and all other topics of interest. Busy times!”

The Newsweek story covers a lot more than the Turkish situation. It is here and you should read it. The Trump-Philippines-Holocaust-TrumpTower connection is especially chilling.

Rachel Maddow covered the story last night as well:

Trump Is Compiling Science Enemy Lists UPDATE: “NO,” DOE

Uncategorized, , , , , , ,

UPDATE: The Department of Energy has reportedly refused Donald Trump’s request for names of DOE employees and contractors who have been engaged in climate change research. That does not mean that Tump will never get those names. Once he is President, he can get the names. But for now, he’ll have to sit it out.

The Donald Trump transition team circulated an eight page questionnaire to the US Department of Energy. Such questionnaires are not normal. This particular questionnaire is deeply disturbing.

There are seventy-four questions. They provide insight into likely Trump administration energy policy, and there is not much of a surprise there. Most disturbing are the questions that elicit the sort of information one would gather at the outset of a purge or harassment campaign against a class of individuals, in this case, climate scientists and related personnel.

Here I provide text of a handful of the questions, brief descriptions of others, and a link to a copy of the original document, which was originally “obtained” by Bloomberg.

At the bottom of the post, I also provide a link to a letter from a leading member of Trump’s DOE transition team, possibly leaked (but maybe intentionally distributed, I’m not sure).

(Please check out this interview with science policy and politics expert Shawn Otto about Trump and Science.)

11. Which Assistant Secretary positions are rooted in statute and which exist at the discretion and delegation of the Secretary?

In other words, which senior people at DOE can we get rid of and which are we stuck with. Question 33 more or less asks the same question again, but slightly differently.

12. What is the statutory charge to the Department with respect to efficiency standards? Which products are subject to statutory requirements and which are discretionary to the department?

In other words, can we roll back efficiency standards, because … because Exxon-Mobile wants to sell more oil? … because we want to increase the rate of climate change because we know the 1% will do better than anyone else? … because we want to punch some hippies?

13. Can you provide a list of all Department of Energy employees or contractors who have attended an Interagency Working Group of the Social Cost of Carbon meetings? Can you provide a list of when those meetings were and any materials distributed at those meetings, emails associated with those meetings, or materials created by Department employees or contractors i anticipation of or as a result of those meetings?

In other words, we would like to compile a list of administrators and scientists who are working in the climate change area, assess their position on climate change, and and then begin a campaign of bullying, harassing, and general ruining the lives of, those individuals and their colleagues and families?

14. Did DOE or any of its contractors run the integrated assessment models (IAMs)? Did DOE pick the discount rates to be used with the IAMs? What was DOE’s opinion on the proper discount rates used with the IAMs? What was DOE’s opinion on the proper equilibrium climate sensitivity?

What’s that all about? The IAMs are related to the more familiar to you (I’m guessing) RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). Simply put, these are complicated models that try to take into account everything from energy policy and use to how changes in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere change climate. There are two main known unknowns here. First, is how much CO2 and other greenhouse gasses we put into the environment (but that is an oversimplification) and the other is climate sensitivity, which is how much will global surface temperatures rise with a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere (again, an oversimplification).

Climate sensitivity is a dog whistle. If you are a science denier, you say “climate sensitivity is 1.2” but if you understand and accept the basic science, you say “Nobody knows for sure, but somewhere between 2.0 and 6.0, most likely very close to about 3.0 or 3.5.”

15. What is the Department’s role with respect to JCPOA? Which office has the lead for the Department?

This is not related to climate change, but I thought I’d throw it in there anyway. The JCPOA is the Iran Deal.

16. What statutory authority has been given to the Department with respect to cybersecurity?

Again, not related to climate change, but given the recent revelations that Russia has been effectively manipulating US elections, and it is hard to imagine how The Donald got elected President of the United States, and given Trump’s Russian associations, it makes sense that the Trump transition team would want to keep track of this sort of thing.

Probably, he could just ask the Russians instead of the DOE, but, well, whatever.

17. Can you provide a list of all Schedule C appointees, all non-career SES employees, and all Presidential appointees requiring Senate confirmation? Can you include their current position and how long they have served in the Department?

These seem like reasonable things to know, if you are taking over the government and are responsible for staffing. But keep in mind that a) no one has ever done a questionnaire like this before; b) there is a transition process that is normally used that presumably addresses these issues; and c) we are talking about links between a part of the government that handles energy and climate and the outside world. If you were trying to build a list of Climate Enemies, this is where you would start. We have to assume, for the purposes of safety and security from what looks like it is going to be a tyrannical government, that this is what Trump is doing.

18. Can you offer more information about the EV Everywhere Grand Challenge?

The EV Everywhere Grand Challenge is “the umbrella effort of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to increase the adoption and use of plug-in electric vehicles…”

19. Can you provide a list of Department employees or contractors who attended any of the Conference of the Parties (under the UNFCCC) in the last five years?

This, of course, is asking for a list of DOE employees and beyond who are involved in climate change research. The UNFCCC is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change.

30. Which programs with DOE are essential to meeting the goals of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan?

The incoming Trump administration has indicated that it will reverse whatever it can among Obama’s accomplishments. We must assume that here, the incoming Trump administration is asking for a ready-made short list of things to eliminate in their apparent effort to move our civilization ever closer to apocalyptic doom.

There are several questions about the DOE’s Energy Information Agency, which is where you go to find out about how much energy we use, of what kind, where it comes from and goes, etc. In other words, the EIA provides an important set of baselines from which one might analyze, track, plan, and generally work on an energy transition. These questions seem to indicate an interest in moving away from renewables, or more precisely, towards changing assessment of energy policy to make renewables look less viable and fossil fuels look more necessary for a longer period of time. This seems to also indicate, unsurprisingly, a pro-fracking stance.

There are several vague questions about the DOE’s Environmental Management and the Handford nuclear waste site.

There are several questions that indicate an intention to expand Nuclear power, re-open Yucca Mountain, and privatize research. There is a question that indicates that the incoming Trump administration intends to cut the DOE budget by 10%

Finally, the last several questions ask about the DOE’s labs, focusing on the personnel. Who are they, what are they up to, what projects are they working on? That sort of thing.

The entire questionnaire is here: [trump-transition-questionaire-to-dept-energy] as a PDF file. Please look through it and let me know what you think.

There appear to be two different questionnaires. The other one is here: [document_gw_06]. I’ve not done a point by point comparison but they seem to be similar in overall content and meaning.

Here is the link to the Trump DOE Transition Team mentioned above: [pyle-what-to-expect-from-the-trump-administration_letter]

How to avoid nuclear apocalypse: this will only take you a few minutes.

Uncategorized, , ,

Right now the number one problem we face in the US is the fact that a) the president of the United States can not be stopped or deterred from launching nuclear missiles if he choses to do so, by design; and b) Donald Trump will be inaugurated, if the electoral college so decides, in January.

If you are in a state that has electors slated to vote for Trump. send your city and state name to this email address:

votehrc@gmail.com

You will then receive instructions as to what to do next.

Pass it on.

People are missing the importance of Trump’s voter fraud claims

Politics, , ,

You know that Donald Trump has been claiming very clearly and precisely that he won both the electoral and popular vote, and that it only looks like he did not win the popular vote because of voter fraud, meaning, that a certain number of American citizens voted twice, or otherwise rigged the elections. In fact, he explicitly says that millions of Americans voted illegally, accounting for the >2 million popular vote margin that Secretary Clinton currently holds.

Messing with voting in this manner is a serious crime, perhaps often a felony.

What we have here is Donald Trump accusing a large number of his opponents of being criminals when he doesn’t even have to. More recently, he asserted that American citizens who express their First Amendment constitutional rights should have their citizenship stripped, and should also be jailed.

Trump isn’t even president yet, and he has made the assertion that he would prefer that a very large number of Americans who disagree with him politically should be jailed and/or their citizenship cancelled. He has previously said that many non-citizens should be rounded up. And once rounded up, shipped out of the country.

What happens if there is not a place to send such individuals? Or, if the government insists that people leave, but they don’t have way to do so, or a place to go? Since they are no longer citizens, they can be detained. Where? Well, if there are a few of them, in jails. If there are a lot of them, perhaps work camps along the Mexican border, where they can be pressed into labor building The Yuge Wall. Or, concentration camps.

But a lot of people are going to be expressing their First Amendment rights, and disagreeing with Trump, if that happens. But if he, along with the Congress he will fully control — because Republicans know nothing other than walking in goose step with their party — gets his way, and laws are passed that strip citizenship from Americans who speak their mind, those concentration camps are going to start getting pretty full.

For that, a solution will have to be found.

This is not funny, people. It is extreme sounding, I’ll give you that. Almost impossible to believe. It can’t happen here. .

Trump calls for a year in jail for flag burners

Politics, ,

… and loss of citizenship, which may amount to be thrown out of the country.

Flag burning may be obnoxious to many, but it is a constitutionally protected act, as long as it is your flag and you do it outside.

Presumptive President Elect Donald Trump has called for severe penalties for flag burners:

By the way, if you strip someone of their citizenship, and you do throw them out of the country, it is possible that they will have no way to go or no way to get there. Once they are no longer US citizen, they can be tossed into a special detention facility, and if there are enough of them, well, you’ve got a concentration camp.

I was about to write a post about something else Donald Trump tweeted, but I got distracted by this latest tweet, from just a few minutes ago.

I’ll be back.

Clinton-Trump Gap in Key States

Uncategorized, , , ,

As you know, there is interest in doing a recount for the presidential balloting in three key states. The chance that a recount in these three states would change Trump’s win (290 to 232 electoral votes) is small. But, it is possible that a recount could demonstrate irregularities that should be addressed.

Also, there is the possibility again small, of so-called “faithless electors” giving Trump a pass. If something like that happens, from Clinton’s perspective, it would be nice if even one of these states flipped (most likely Wisconsin).

So, to keep track of the numbers, here are the current vote values prior to any recount. I’m not too sure about Wisconsin because the Wisconsin Secretary of State does not actually provide the numbers to the general public, which I’m guessing is a violation of their state’s statute or constitution, but hell, that’s Wisconsin for you. The Louisiana of the North, they call it these days.

Friday, November 25th

Michigan (16 electoral votes): 10,704 (0.2%)
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): 27,257 (0.9%)
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes): 70,638 (1.2%)

On the electors: Some will claim that an elector is somehow rigging, violating, or otherwise besmirching the process by not voting for the candidate that won their state’s popular vote. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The electors are carrying out a duty in service of the United States Constitution, and and the Constitution does not stipulate that they vote for the majority in their state.

There have been so-called “faithless electors” — those that do not follow that state mandated rule — in the past, and they were never fined or otherwise prosecuted for violating state statute. There is, as I understand it, a reason for that. The state laws that tell an elector how to vote are so blatantly unconstitutional that even a right wing judge whose corrupt brother in law was the candidate harmed by the elector could not possibly uphold the law under an appeal. If a faithless elector was taken to court, and that case was challenged (which it would be), the entire edifice would instantly crumble and the electoral college would have to start to function like it did in the old days.

And, how is that, you ask?

Well, in their Enlightened wisdom, the Founding Fathers, who are today revered, even fetishized, by the likes of the Tea Party and the Sage Brush Rebellion and all the other yahoos, deemed the unwashed masses — the yahoos — unfit to vote for President (or Senator for that matter). The Electors are supposed to be your betters, who will make the decision for you. And, soon, possibly by the time of the next election, this is how we shall start to do things.

Or maybe not the next presidential election, but if the electoral system is tossed aside this year (Wisconsin shifts so the vote becomes 280-242 and 11 electors dump Trump so the vote becomes 269-253) and the election goes to the House of Reprehensible to decide, you can bet on change happening over the next few years, though it will probably come in the form of a bunch of state laws that continue to fly under the Constitutional radar screen.