Scott Adams is the creator of Dilbert, the once funny but now highly repetitive cartoon about a nerd who has a job in an office.
Dr. Gavin Schmidt is high up in the top ten list of world class climate scientists. He is Director of the currently under siege GISS Unit of NASA, where much of the climate science done by that agency is carried out. If you read my blog, you’ve read his work, because you also read RealClimate, where GS writes about climate science in a manner designed to be understandable to the intelligent, honestly interested, thoughtful individual.
Adams has a history of going after core science concepts, often substituting scientific reality with his own. He has done so with climate science.
And, he’s done it again. In a recent blog post (of yesterday) Adams tries to “convince skeptics that climate change is a problem”
This is a re-hash of earlier posts he’s written, in which he does the old denial two step. Of course climate change is real, he says. I’m not a scientist, he says. I don’t know jack about climate science in particular, he says. Then, he uses up piles of ink telling climate scientists how they’ve got all the science wrong.
His objective, I assume, is to spread and nurture doubt about climate science and science in general.
Dr Schmidt caught a tweet of Adams’, pointing to his absurd blog post, and responded with a series of tweets addressing all the things.
I wanted to preserve this excellent, well documented and richly illustrated TweetTextBook, and it occurred to me that you might want to see it too. So, here are the tweets.
Feel free to add additional relevant tweets to the comments, if you like. I hope this doesn’t break the Internet.
But since I'm in the mood for a totally futile exercise, here's why his points are disingenuous at best. Let's start with models… 1/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Remember George Box? "All models are wrong, but some are useful". It's not just true for climate, but also quantum physics, GR, SM etc. 2/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
It would be criminally irresponsible for scientists not to explore real world impacts of real structural uncertainty in complex systems 3/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
And we *know* that climate is complexhttps://t.co/2z4Xa2kaIs
4/n pic.twitter.com/wgzrM2zq6W— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
It's *because* some aspects of climate change are robust to model differences that we have confidence those aspects reflect reality, but…5/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
of course we need to (and do) evaluate predictions of these models in out-of-sample tests (incl. but not exclusively the future). 6/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Here are some climate model predictions made ahead of time: Mt. Pinatubo: https://t.co/3ZPAR1ZFpB
Spatial patterns: https://t.co/PSm6yUrcbt— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Some more: Stratospheric cooling https://t.co/eQjE7UyLv7
Reconciling paleo-data: https://t.co/vNrO8SDRMq
etc. There are more. 8/n— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Indeed, the collection of models in the CMIP3 database (created in 2004), can also be tested against observations. 9/n pic.twitter.com/FfVl0LT3lE
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
His 3rd point is just bizarre: *All* of the warming in the last 60 years is human-caused. See here for refs: https://t.co/2fRV3LFwwq 10/n pic.twitter.com/5mdzhP2HnP
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
…factors would have likely lead to cooling over that time. See here for more on that: https://t.co/xd52WqyqsQ 12/n pic.twitter.com/pHviacw3md
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
His 4th point is just off the wall. Someone else can deal with that. 13/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Pt 5 is just the 'climate has changed before' trope. Duh.
Of course it has & for many different reasons: Asteroids, plate tectonics… 14/n— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
…orbital wobbles, evolution, volcanoes, the sun, fires, ocean circulation, etc. But just like a crime scene w/multiple suspects… 15/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Scientists look for fingerprints in the data to match up potential causes w/reality. We know that orbital wobbles drove last 2.5 Myr… 16/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
of ice age cycles & that greenhouse gas+dust changes amplified them. We have good evidence Cenozoic cooling was due to decreases in CO2…17/n pic.twitter.com/4CoV133af3
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
combined w/tectonic triggers that changed circulation, isolated Antarctica & set the stage for recent glacial periods. 18/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
All these past changes are fascinating & piecing together the evidence is fun but in no cases do we have as much info as for the 20thC 19/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Our ability to pin down the details for the last 60 yrs is much, much better than for the ice ages (despite the bigger signal). 20/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
A claim that attribution of recent change is compromised because attribution from some earlier, data-poorer period is unclear is equivalent…
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
…to claiming that a recent murder conviction should be vacated because an ancient Roman skull has just been found in Europe. 21/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
(bear with me people, we are almost done). 22/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Pt. 7: the earth has warmed as predicted you pillock. 23/n pic.twitter.com/2q0TWqhgLV
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Pt 8. Record high temperatures & the rate of warming are proof of something. That predicted changes in the system are occurring. 24/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Pt 9. Records break all the time, but not equally. Far more hot records are being broken than cold ones https://t.co/ifeSyIo5Le 25/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Pt 10. Really? We can't ignore deeper understanding of processes, better data, bug fixes over time. But basic results have not changed. 26/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Pt 11. no idea where his local beaches are, but insurance co's pay so much attention to SLR threats that you can't get private insurance…
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
…along much of the East Coast. 28/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Pt. 12. Oh please. The issue is not the absolute temperature. If humans had evolved in the much-warmer Eocene, I'm sure we'd have been fine
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Sea level was 80m higher & no-one could live in the tropics, so cities would've been built further inland/poleward. Unfortunately… 30/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
that isn't where people live now! Roughly 100 million ppl live within 1m of high tide, Many trillions in infrastructure too. 31/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
More than half the world lives in the tropics, farmers rely on climate (temp/rain) to grow food etc. etc. 32/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Finally, climate change impacts are happening now: Greenland's losing mass, heat waves are worse, rainfall more intense, Arctic ice is… 33/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
disappearing, permafrost is melting etc. It is neither a hoax nor a distant possibility. It's here, it's now & risks of much worse are real.
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
I'm sorry that @ScottAdamsSays feels that ppl are not respecting his oh-so-clever concern trolling. Truly. I mean, why aren't I being nicer?
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
Surely, I should take his well-meaning advice & up our communications game, convincing him & others that it isn't a hoax? 36/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
But this misses this point entirely because scientists/communicators/Natl. Academies have done all of these things & more for yrs. 37/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
And yet, people like @ScottAdamsSays still repeat nonsense, choose to misunderstand points & prefer to argue rather than deal. 38/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
At some point, you have to ask yourself, maybe the problem is not the communications or the communicators? Sure – we should continue… 39/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
to hone messaging, listen, adjust the frames, use trusted messengers, make better visualizations, answer questions, increase relevance 40/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
but the deeper issues of why people selectively reject evidence that goes against their group ideology go mostly unaddressed. 41/n
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017
I don't expect this tweet storm to impact @ScottAdamsSays at all. That wasn't the point. Sometimes it just feels good to vent. Done. 42/42
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) March 9, 2017