Dem Vs Trump: How are we doing?

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There is a new poll pitting various Democrats against Trump. Before you complain to me that we should not be looking at polls because it is not election day, think again and take note of the fact that polls are data and I’m a data-oriented scientist, so don’t even say that to me. (I’m working on a post that will serve as an answer to that complaint every time it comes up on Facebook)

Anyway, this is a Quinnipiac University poll taken in Pennsylvania. Quinnipiacis a good poll. Details are here. Also note that I’m not posting this poll because its results show something I want to push, or use to cause your hair to burst into flames. I’ve not looked at the results, yet here I am writing this blog post. I will now look at the results, figure out a good way to show them to you, then finish the post. brb.

The poll has a LOT of interesting data that will figure as important down the road as the number of candidates cull out and we get to see the results of a bunch of natural experiments (like, which non-dropping out candidate tends to accrete which demographic as they drift away from dropper-outer-candidates).

But here is what the head to head shows:

These results vary considerably when adjusting for age, gender, and race. Note that in this sort of matchup, reaching above 50 is considered by pollsters as a sort of magic number. Only Biden does that here, but Sanders is (obviously) vert close.

I think the most important message here is this: The candidates do not vary much in this very early indication of their electability, even if they vary a great deal in how they rank among Democrats.

Putting aside the head to head and looking at some of the other data, among registered democrats, Biden has 39% support, Sanders has 13% support, with Harris, Warren at 8%, Buttigieg at 6%, Booker at 5%, O’Rourke at 2%, and Klobuchar at 1%. Nobody else registers. Someone else has dropped, interesting, to an apparent low at 2%. I’m thinking people realized, “no, no, NOT someone else, pleasssseee!!!”

Again, that varies by age, gender, race, etc. Among the young, Biden and Sanders are essentially tied (Biden just ahead, 29-27), while among the old, Sanders barely registers and Biden swoops (Biden: 47%, Sanders 4%). Putting both Biden and Sander aside for a moment, and digging into the demographic weeds, Harris, Warren, and Buttigieg pop among those with higher incomes (Sanders gets very little support there, Biden plenty). Harris pops among older folks, Booker and Buttigieg do a bit better with younger folks. Liberals like Buttigieg and Warren.

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6 thoughts on “Dem Vs Trump: How are we doing?

  1. I like Harris for the long term. Biden and Sanders are both too old and too white.

    Harris combines Obama and Hillary – which from an identity politics point of view is pretty good (the left is all about identity politics). There are a lot of women saying it is a women’s turn to be President.

    Just my personal opinion of course (and I am not a democrat) – but I think Harris will hold up pretty well as we go along. She is also a bit more moderate than Sanders (but probably not Biden).

    We will see.

  2. the left is all about identity politics

    Wow. Just when I think you can’t make any statement more stupid than ones in the past you outdo yourself.

  3. As they tried with Jeb Bush, the Dem field has been flooded with candidates to dilute the anti-Biden vote.

    It remains to be seen if Steve Bullock will be like Kasich and take votes away from Biden, who is currently winning overwhelmingly among the majority of Democrats who view themselves as moderate or conservative.

  4. I’ve heard a lot of talk about how the presence of so many contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination (23 at last count) is confusing to voters.

    I’m here to refute that. I had no trouble picking my top three candidates: Warren Biden, Tulsi Kamala, and Ryan Sanders. I am not confused at all.


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