The Democrats Will Not Win The House of Representatives

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Many are expecting a blue wave. The actual evidence suggests a blue ripple.

Over the last several days, I went over every one of the US House races. Scan upwards in my post-stream to see the alphabetical treatment.

Looking at every race conservatively, and calling a turnover when it is certain, I count a net of 12 turnovers. That moves the Republican majority from 47 to 23. Respectable, but not world changing.

There are probably three or four races that people will be able to make strong arguments about that I chose not to count as turnovers. And, for every one I count as a turnover, there is approximately 1.5 races that are close enough that a magical and very powerful blue wave would push into the Dem column. So, I could take my 12 turnovers, make it 15, then add that times 150%. That would be VERY optimistic. It would rsult in Democrats having about 11 more seats than Republicans. This is extremely unlikely.

Indeed, even though chances of the Democrats winning the Senate are very low, they might be, in my opinion, higher than the chances of the Democrats winning the house.

We need to win both. We are likely to win neither. There is a very small chance we’ll win one. Nearly zero chance we’ll win both.

Keep in mind that is has almost always true for every race in recent decades, the Republicans pull 2 or three points out of their hats at the last second, I believe not counting voter suppression. This just has to do with how people poll, vote, and act. It is actually possible that my estimate of 12 turnovers will turn out to be too large a number.

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One thought on “The Democrats Will Not Win The House of Representatives

  1. Trumpists apparently don’t mind/don’t acknowledge his lies, ignorance, buffoonery, or sabotage of environment or health support. Until and unless the results of the GOP policies affect many of them (and the rest of the American public) personally and negatively, there is little reason to expect change. It’ll take years before people start noticing the effects of smog and other environmental poisoning and blame is easy enough to shift in a post-fact, post-evidence culture.

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