In a single picture:
(The exact details and numbers are not important.)
Feel free to suggest revisions. I’ve already got a few.
Hillary hatge is a typo, but I’ve also updated it: Hilary Hate (Vast Right Wing Conspiracy)
Also, the Democratic Baseline is actually larger than the Republican Baseline, but the suppression effects of Democratic turnout are typically larger than on Republican turnout, who just show up no matter what. So I’ve adjusted that.