Yearly Archives: 2013

Zack Kopplin Files Public Records Lawsuit Against John White

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This just in to the newsroom…

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

ZACK KOPPLIN FILES PUBLIC RECORDS LAWSUIT AGAINST SUPERINTENDENT JOHN WHITE

September 10, 2013

Re: Zachary S. (“Zack”) Kopplin, Citizen versus John White, in his Official Capacity as Superintendent of the Department of Education, a Department of the Executive Branch of the State of Louisiana

Baton Rouge, Louisiana—On Monday, September 9, 2013, education activist Zack Kopplin filed suit against Louisiana Superintendent John White and the Department of Education in order to compel White to release a series of public records concerning the school voucher program, teacher evaluation methodology, the Louisiana Science Education Act, the influence of lobbyists on policymaking, and policies related to the retention and destruction of public records. The suit is designed—at long last—to ferret out what the process was leading to Jindal’s sweeping education changes—including whether there was a lack of record making or so-called “off campus” records retention, which is a particularly non-transparent practice of some government officials to hire consultants or third party firms to develop and store policy in order to shield policy making from the public.

In late May and early June, Kopplin submitted a number of requests pertaining to education policy, the overwhelming majority of which were either ignored or improperly answered. Kopplin alleges that, during the last several months, Superintendent White and officials at the Louisiana Department of Education have attempted to conceal, delay, and deny the production of public records.

About the Parties

The parties to the proceeding are a Louisiana citizen and the State of Louisiana, through its executive Department of Education. The Department is the highest unit of executive organization for education policy in the state, other than the office of the Governor. The Department is a line-agency-level unit responsible for education policy and is, or should be, the custodian of records related to this suit.

Mr. Zachary Kopplin has been engaged in a citizen campaign to access public records regarding two significant pieces of legislation in Louisiana, which are key “education reform” policies of Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal: the Louisiana Science Education Act and the Student Scholarships for Educational Excellence Program (better known as the “school voucher program”).

At long last . . . .

The suit is about citizen access to public records and the information surrounding the formulation of controversial government education policy. In addition, if the suit lends itself to the issue, Zack intends to challenge the Governor’s appointees’ use of the recently enacted “deliberative process” privilege—a new privilege in Louisiana ironically borne from claims of opening up additional gubernatorial transparency. The policy does anything but that according to experts and legislators feeling the pangs “fool me once
. . . .”

Zack contends the actions of the Governor and his appointees are part of a custom, policy, and practice to deny civil rights to people similarly situated to Zack, specifically to deny persons seeking public information (in the pursuit of criticism of government policy, First Amendment rights, and the right to petition government for redress of grievances)—and such practices and customs were demonstrably apparent and had occurred in other cases in that: (i) a general pattern of unlawful refusals to grant public records requests, improperly handle them, or invoke the “deliberative process” privilege exists, (ii) a pattern of misconduct toward Zack exists, and (iii) the denials and patterns of misconduct commenced because of protected speech flowing from, and arising out of, Zack’s repeated criticism of the policies at issue in the Public Records Requests.

Definitely the Governor’s process . . . .

In 2009, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal publicly asked members of the Louisiana legislature to pass Act 495, a law amending La.R.S. 44:5 in order to carve out specific exemptions for public records disclosures in the Governor’s office. Although Governor Jindal, at the time, claimed the amended law would result in greater transparency, throughout the last four years, he and members of his administration have relied on a tortuous interpretation of the law in an unprecedented attempt at preventing citizens and members of the media from accessing and reviewing a significant number of statutorily defined public records.

In so doing, Governor Jindal has blockaded the public’s ability to truthfully and accurately evaluate policy and fiscal determinations on a wide range of issues, including, but not limited to, health care, hospital privatization, Medicaid spending, higher education, public education, school vouchers, taxation, prison privatization, and coastal restoration efforts. This beckons all to consider Justice Brandeis’ famous admonition: “Publicity is justly commended as a remedy for social and industrial diseases. Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the most efficient policeman.”

In the Capital City Press, LLC v. LSU case, on April 25, 2013, the Nineteenth Judicial District Court ruled that records of the selection of the LSU president were public records, were not exempt, and were subject to a grant of mandamus—ordering production of certain records as requested.

Setting aside the merits of the legislation—which are not at issue for purposes of this lawsuit—Zack alleges the office of the Governor and the Louisiana Department of Education have maintained a stance tending away from transparency and cooperation when it comes to the public’s right to gain records. Importantly, Zack maintains there seemingly is also a thicker wall when it comes to learning how decisions are made—or the process to create certain policies. Zack and his associates believe the public is better served when the process is illuminated, as well as the records provided, because in the public domain the process by which decisions are made can be as important as the final decision. Along the decision continuum, many important public policy debates may be central to discussions like academic policy.

Indeed, in an LSU Law Review comment, titled, “From Sunshine to Moonshine: How the Louisiana Legislature Hid the Governor’s Records in the Name of Transparency,” author Kevin Blanchard provides the basis for much of the backdrop for the deliberative process and methodically uncovers the ways in which Governor Jindal and his legislative allies colluded to undermine the state’s public records laws.

Zack thinks the Governor’s (or his appointees’) failures to provide requested public documents, or failure to sufficiently, properly, or unconditionally respond, or provide proper objections, renders the State liable. Relatedly, to the extent improper objections or claims of privilege, e.g., the “deliberative process,” were used explicitly or internally, Zack intends to use this action to have those matters declared violative of statutory and constitutional law of the State of Louisiana, as applied and facially, because—

  • Deliberative process, as created by Louisiana statute, has been used (as applied) in a manner violating the fundamental right to public records guaranteed by Article XII of the Louisiana State Constitution;
  • Deliberative process, as created by statute, is facially unconstitutional and violates the fundamental right to records guaranteed by Article XII of the Louisiana State Constitution; and/or
  • Deliberative process, even as created by statute, is being used in a manner beyond the scope of its limited authorization by statute, and is therefore, as applied by the Department of Education, unconstitutional and violates the fundamental right to records guaranteed by Article XII of the Louisiana State Constitution.

Technical Notes

Some technical points about this suit:

<ul>
  • In Louisiana, any person of age can make a request; one does not have to be a Louisiana citizen.
    • <li>The law is construed liberally in favor of the requestor, so that doubts must be resolved in favor of the requestor.  Any claims of privilege or exemption must be proved conclusively by the custodian.</li>

<li>There is a long line of decisions holding that record keeping cannot be delegated away to circumvent the public records laws.</li>

<li>In Louisiana, public records information is a fundamental right, not merely a statutory one.  See generally La.Const. art. XII, § 3 provides, in part, as follows: “Right to Direct Participation.  No person shall be denied the right to … examine public documents, except in cases established by law.”  </li>

<li>This suit claims the Department of Education is engaged in a pattern of misconduct relating to the dissemination of public information.  See La.R.S. 44:31-32. </li>

<li>Citizens aggrieved can file special, or extraordinary relief, proceedings in Louisiana courts.  Courts of record within their respective jurisdictions may declare rights, status, and other legal relations.  La.Code Civ.P. art. 1871.</li></ul>

    Thoughts and Comments

    Throughout the last three years, Kopplin’s research and advocacy have generated national and international attention, and his ongoing campaign to repeal the Louisiana Science Education Act has attracted endorsements from nearly eighty Nobel laureates and the world’s leading science organizations.

    “In May, Zack asked the Department of Education for e-mail records about his repeal campaign against the LSEA. A few weeks later, they responded to him. They sent him one e-mail exchange about the Louisiana Science Act, between two of their staff members, and twenty pages of news alerts,” said Greg Rozas, Kopplin’s lead attorney. “The repeal campaign was making international news. Three years in a row, Superintendent John White and Governor Bobby Jindal sent staff members to testify about these bills in front of the Senate Education Committee. Yet, if the response is credited as true, it means the Department of Education only had one e-mail discussion responsive to his request.”

    In addition to Rozas, Kopplin is also represented by Chris Roy Sr., the vice chairman of the Louisiana State Constitutional Convention, and Allen Smith, both of whom are civil rights attorneys based in Alexandria.

    “In Louisiana, a citizen’s ability to access public records is considered a fundamental right,” said Chris Roy Sr. “From almost the second after he took the oath of office, Governor Jindal and officials in his administration have tried to re-interpret well-established law in order to stifle our fundamental right to be informed. As an attorney and as someone who was fortunate enough to help craft our State Constitution, once I was asked, I felt personally and professionally obligated to help represent Mr. Kopplin. This is larger than education policy. It’s about the integrity and durability of our public records laws and ensuring that there are meaningful ways to hold our most powerful officials accountable.”

    Last year, in response to a similar public records request submitted by the Associated Press, Superintendent White’s office asserted that the requested records were protected by the “deliberative process privilege.” White’s denial of the request and his attempt at invoking the “deliberative process privilege” made national news, and subsequently, he claimed he would release the records after the school year began. “To me, the manner of response distorts settled law and the purpose and intention of our State Constitution,” said Rozas. “Believe it or not, Louisiana has always enjoyed robust public records laws. A few years ago, Governor Jindal pushed through and enacted an extremely vague statute on ‘deliberative process.’ He told legislators it would increase government transparency. Instead, they’ve repeatedly attempted to convince us that this ‘privilege’ is actually a blanket exemption, covering practically everything that Governor Jindal, anyone on his executive staff, and anyone under the direction of his executive staff have ever read on any and every policy issue. It’s not only absurd; it’s shameful and undemocratic. They’re not basing their argument in Louisiana law; instead, they’ve constructed this ‘privilege’ around the deteriorating scaffolding of a single paragraph presented as dicta in a relatively obscure thirty-three year old D.C. Circuit case involving the relationship between FOIA and the Department of Energy.”

    Kopplin’s petition is expansive and includes more than 80 pages of exhibits. “It’s one of the most extensive and meticulously researched pleadings on a public records dispute that I’ve read,” said Chris Roy Sr. “Even if a court never needs to get to the Constitutional merits, this case provides a blueprint for others, and it shows how a straightforward law can be distorted and misapplied.”

    Added Roy, “I have often thought debate is the lifeblood of democracy and proper compromise its soul; but deceit is its true threat, that the other two in their proper spheres routinely countervail.”

    Allen Smith III, attorney for Kopplin, said his “involvement is based on his commitment to public interest suits and the ‘David and Goliath’ aspect of the case.” Smith also said he enjoys any chance he gets to work with his family and a legal mentor, referring to Chris Roy Sr. About Kopplin, Smith said, “You have to respect a young man who wants to take on ‘city hall’ based on principles. It is what people try to instill in young persons all the time—so, I felt like I should do my part to promote good trouble making,” Smith said jokingly referring to Kopplin’s grant.

    “Pretty early on, I knew this would be a ‘war of attrition,’” said Kopplin. “The hope was that if they didn’t legitimately respond to my questions, then I’d eventually stop asking them. But I never thought I’d need to file a lawsuit, and I never imagined the Department of Education would attempt to conceal so much. I had tried working with them. I even drove in from Houston to meet personally with their staff.”

    In February, Kopplin won the first-ever national “Troublemaker of the Year” award in recognition of his efforts on behalf of science education in Louisiana. The award also included a $10,000 prize to be used to make “the good kind” of trouble. “It’s the single biggest paycheck I’ve ever received in my life, and I had intended to use most of it to build a website and purchase and publish public records on science education policies across the country,” said Kopplin. “Instead, I’m being forced to sue my own home state. I’d prefer to spend my time and energy in the classroom and not the courtroom, but the records I am requesting are absolutely crucial to understanding issues and policies that affect the quality and the competitiveness of our entire state elementary and secondary education system. I want to thank Semyon Dukach and the Troublemaker Award for making this case possible. The Troublemaker Award is meant to help students cause positive ‘trouble’ to support the public good. I can think of no better way to do this than to launch this suit for transparency and public access to information.”

    Tropical Update: Gabrielle Comes Back Humberto Hesitates (UPDATED)

    Uncategorized,

    As you know, if Tropical Storm Humberto, which is out in the eastern Atlantic at the moment, turns into a hurricane AFTER noon tomorrow, September 11th, it will break the record for latest first hurricane in the Atlantic hurricane season for the period of good records. Everyone was expecting Humberto to ramp up hurricane intensity today, but strengthening of the storm has stalled a bit, and Humberto is not as organized as expected.

    Officially, the National Weather Service predicts that Humberto will be a hurricane later today. But it is possible that this won’t happen. We will be watching closely.

    Meanwhile, Gabrielle, which was a tropical storm that got downgraded to blobby thing, is back as a tropical storm and is menacing Bermuda. Gabrielle is showing unexpected intensity and is larger than expected, and is and will be a very powerful tropical storm, but is expected to stay at sea.

    By the way, Humberto is moving northwest but is expected to turn west before falling apart and returning to tropical storm status. Then, it will be a blobby thing that is no longer a named tropical storm out in the middle of the Atlantic. I’m not sure what forecasters thing, but I suppose it is possible that exHumberto could return as Humberto 2.0, like Gabrielle did. This seems to have happened a few times this season. I wonder if we are going to see a new record: Number of times a storm gets unnamed then returns.

    UPDATE: Humberto is a Hurricane, and apparently became one over night. Humberto was upgraded in this morning’s 5:00 AM update. In order for Humberto to have broken the record of being the latest first hurricane in the Atlantic over the period of records, this upgrading had to happen after noon time today. So, no record was broken this year, but just barely!

    Major Computing Entities as Public Goods

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    What if you went to drive to work one day and the highway on ramp was closed, and a big sign across it said “Highway is closed. Sorry for the inconvenience.”

    Well, you would find your way to a different highway entrance. But say that one was closed as well.Then, you check around and find out that all the highways in your state are closed because the state decided to close them. No more highways for you.

    Or, one day you go to check the mail and there is a single post card, and nothing else, in your mail box. The post card reads “The United States Postal Service has permanently suspended operation. Sorry for the inconvenience. Have a nice day.”

    Or one day you go to turn on the TV and … well, never mind, you get the point.

    This morning I received an email from Socialite, a software application, telling me that the software app would not be developed further, could no longer be updated, and was no longer for sale. The main reason for Socialite’s demise is summarized in this text from their web site:

    In 2012 Twitter announced API changes and made it clear that traditional Twitter clients, such as Socialite, should not be developed. Some of these new rules made developing Twitter support in Socialite 2 impossible, so after much deliberations we stopped the development of Socialite 2.
    End-of-life of Google Reader in 2013 was the last nail in the coffin of Socialite, as without it Socialite loses much of its appeal.

    Now, I don’t use Socialite, so this does not matter to me, but it is part of a larger problem that has been a difficulty for everyone. First, with respect to Twitter, it seems to me that Twitter does change its API now and then, which in and of itself causes havoc in the development community. Furthermore, it seems that these changes in Twitter API are not necessarily improvements, but rather, sometimes involve removal of functionality. One could even argue that Twitter has a policy of changing, and sometimes even “breaking,” it’s API in order that software projects that make use of it no longer work.

    I remember a few years back when Twitter was still pretty new and there were all sorts of great ideas for using the Twitter environment to do things like citizen science. But it seems to be the case that any long term use of Twitter, especially if that use requires use of the API (but even if it does not), isn’t worth attempting because any investment one puts into the project could be obviated at any time by Twitters policy. That policy, it seems, is “Innovate with Twitter at your own risk.”

    The second part of this is, of course, Google Reader being shut down by Google. This is a little different. I might be wrong, and do correct me if so, but Twitter seems to be somewhat arbitrary in its API changes, and seems to do very little to support and encourage development with its framework. Google, on the other hand, seems to encourage development of projects and activities based on its services. Nonetheless, a lot of people were surprised when the widely used Google Reader, which served as a key component of many development projects, was axed. Getting rid of a project few people use and that seems to not have really taken off is one thing (and Google has done that a number of times, which is an obviously likely outcome of diverse innovation which Google seems to do). But Twitter is not Google. Twitter is the kind of project that could easily have been one of many services offered by a company like Google. Twitter, when it changes itself in a way that destroys functionality, is not dropping support for one of many projects. It is making itself irrelevant and annoying as a tool for incorporation in other projects.

    So, what is the difference between roads and mail service on one hand and Twitter and Google on the other? The former are public goods, funded publicly and regulated by the government. Similar projects exist in most countries around the world and they integrate across national boundaries. The latter are projects of private companies that have every right to change their services, restrict use, or even shut down entirely.

    Amazon is similar. Over time, Amazon has become one of the major, if not the major, supplier of two things one does not usually associate with a book store: Servers and cash registers. If you use a service that requires computer servers and/or storage of data, such as Netflix, you may well be using Amazon indirectly because they provide servers for a gazillion clients. When a bunch of Amazon servers go down, the Internet can choke majorly, though fortunately this happens rarely. Similarly, when you make an on line purchase at any on line company other than Amazon, there is a reasonable chance that you are using Amazon indirectly, as they provide the on line purchasing system to a lot of other vendors. And, now and then, you might even buy a book from Amazon.

    When Amazon decides to change what it does or how it does it, which they can do arbitrarily within the range of existing contracts, a lot of things can, potentially, change. A minor example of this happened recently to those of us based in Minnesota, when Amazon, not by necessity but simply to make a point, shut down associates in the North Star State. That was part of my income stream (though a very small part, I quickly add) and Amazon simply sent me an email one day saying that this would no longer be a thing, and there was nothing I could do about it.

    Twitter, Amazon, Google, and similar things are like the railroad, mining, and lumber companies of yore, run by a small number of highly influential individuals who happen to be in charge by a combination of luck and whatever else makes you one of those people. The thing is, these corporations effectively serve as public goods, just like our roads, our power grid, our water and sewage systems, our public mail service, our fire departments, etc. but they are not public entities.

    At the moment, we who use the Internet, software, etc. are at risk of the arbitrary decisions of a handful of modern Robber-Barons who got into their present position for reasons other than being thoughtful, sensitive, public servants. All hale the free market.

    Is there anything that can be done about this? Possibly. Here are a few ideas.

    1) The US Senate can pass a resolution requiring Obama to bomb Twitter. That would not solve anything, and of course it can’t really happen, but the debate in the Senate would be high entertainment.

    2) The government can take over Amazon, Google, Twitter and a few other companies, sort of like how it took over the companies that built roads and canals (and to a lesser extent, railroads) in days of yore.

    3) A version of the government takeover in which the government doesn’t really take over but “authorities” are created, like the ones that handle ports, airports, etc. today (those entities were originally private, in many or most cases).

    (These two options, 2 and 3, seem impossible, many will think they are bad ideas. And they will be bad ideas right up until the moment Google is about to go bankrupt or is embroiled in some sort of scandalous legal difficulties of some kind, and a “bailout” is needed. A thing like Google will never need a bail out of course. Like banks. And car manufacturing companies. They would never need a bail out either.)

    4) Alternative services, like Amazon, Google, Twitter, etc. can be developed by non-profits using an OpenSource GPL-like model. Those services would probably not be big, or widely used. But they would be there. Then, one day, when the big players falter or become too annoying in one area or another, the OpenSource alternatives can grow a little here and there, and eventually, become the norm.

    5) See below (this is where you put your ideas in the comments):

    Climate and energy items of interest

    Climate Change, Uncategorized

    Pacific Island Nations Tell The World ‘Climate Change Has Arrived’

    “Climate change has arrived,” and the world must act. That’s the message from fifteen nations in the southwestern Pacific, who signed a statement yesterday calling on other countries to join them in “the urgent reduction and phase down of greenhouse gas pollution.”

    With Climate Journalism Like This, Who Needs Fiction?

    (Just go read the post)

    U.S. Navy Triples Clean Energy Startup Funding In Hawaii

    A clean energy seed money startup program in Hawai’i will now have triple its existing budget courtesy of the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Research.

    Energy Excelerator provides between $30,000 to $100,000 in seed money to clean energy startups in Hawai’i. If a more advanced company wishes to create a pilot project on Hawai’i and can raise $500,000 in matching funds, the program will supply a $1 million grant. Every summer, the program selects 13 businesses that have ideas related to: grid integration of renewable energy; bioenergy and transportation; and energy efficiency for built environment and agriculture.

    Hundreds of companies apply for grants, but…

    Dominion Virginia wins right to lease ocean tract for wind farm

    Plans for the first offshore wind farm in the region moved forward Wednesday when Dominion Virginia Power won the right to lease nearly 113,000 acres off the Virginia coast to generate power with wind turbines.

    The utility outbid Apex Virginia Offshore Wind in a six-round auction held by the Interior Department, paying $1.6 million for the right to install wind turbines 27 miles off the state’s coast. When completed, the project could provide electricity to about 700,000 homes.

    The race is on: Will Humberto break the record or Gustav break Humberto? (UPDATED)

    Uncategorized,

    The disturbance off the west coast of Africa that I mentioned earlier is now officially Tropical Depression Number Nine.

    It is forecast that Nine will turn into a hurricane in about 72 hours, though one model suggest much sooner.

    The last time that no hurricane formed in the Atlantic before September 11th was … well, never (for the period of good records). So if the Nine becomes Humberto (that’s the next name on the list) a little late, on the 12th, Humberto becomes a record storm, of sorts … the first hurricane after the longest delay in the Atlantic. If, however, Nine becomes Humberto on the 10th, which is distinctly possible, then no dice … we have an unusual year but we don’t beat the old record.

    But what happens if Humberto forms on the 11th? There’s a pretty darn good chance of that happening.

    Well, then, I suppose it will depend on exactly WHEN Humberto becomes a hurricane … or is declared a hurricane?

    According to records at the National Weather Service, Gustav, in 2002, was declared a hurricane at the noon update (UTC):

    Gust_NHC_Tropical_Cyclone_Report

    (And didn’t last long.)

    So, what do you think? Will this be a record year or not? Will Humberto displace Gustav? Will Gustav stand? Will they become hurricanes simultaneously (as it were)?

    Place your bets here…

    UPDATE (9 sept 8:20AM):

    The NWS is currently projecting Humberto to become a hurricane on the 11th. Or maybe a tiny bit sooner, but most likely, before noon on the 11th. Here are two projections that are slightly different that came out a few minutes ago:

    Tropical_Storm_HUMBERTO

    Tropical_Storm_HUMBERTOWindTable

    Nearing the record for the latest first hurricane in the Atlantic

    Uncategorized,

    We are two days away from the peak day for hurricane season (with many more days of hurricane season coming, of course). Yet there have been no Atlantic Hurricanes. In just a few days (on September 11th) if we don’t have a hurricane, we’ll break the record for latest over the period of record keeping.

    There is a storm forming off the coast of Africa that might become a hurricane before September 11th. Or maybe not. The race is on!

    Anyway, Paul Douglas of Weather Nation has a video explaining the current situation:

    CNBC’s Joe Kernen Makes Up A Fake Story about Climate Change on Squawk Box.

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    Joe Kernen is a business finance talking head who co-hosts CNBC’s Squawk Box. I don’t know if he actually knows much about Wall Street, but I can prove he doesn’t know squawk about Climate Science. Have a look (warning: Might make you dizzy):

    Something about a low participation rate because people are getting older. But that’s kind of unclear. Obviously, what is needed is a nice clear analogy from …. climate science!

    So, the warmest period ever was in the 1930s when there were much lower CO2 levels. I did not know that.

    Then the glaciers retreat and there are big forests. Arm wavingly big forests!

    Then we realize in the Middle Ages it was warmer than it was now! Why??? WHY????

    Why, then, why was the participation rate so low?????? Enquiring climate scientists want to know!!!

    Please. Allow me to “put it in the big picture”

    First, I have no idea why participation rates in some thing are low. That is not my field of study and I have no idea what they are talking about. Therefore I will not wave my arms around and tell you something about that.

    Was the decade of the 1930s the warmest period ever? Let’s look at a graph!

    The 1930s was a period during which global warming occurred, ant it was in fact warmer than PREVIOUS decades. But then it got warmer. Like in this graph.
    The 1930s was a period during which global warming occurred, ant it was in fact warmer than PREVIOUS decades. But then it got warmer. Like in this graph.

    So, no.

    Was CO2 lower then? Let’s look at a graph:

    CO2 was lower then. And so was temperature. In fact, temperatures and CO2 seem to ... correlate! Huh.
    CO2 was lower then. And so was temperature. In fact, temperatures and CO2 seem to … correlate! Huh.

    What about the glaciers melting. Let’s look at a graph:

    Glacial melting is not well measured back as far as the 30s, but we know they weren't melting back then or al the towns downstream from them would have noticed it then. But they certainly have been melting! It's a global warming thing.
    Glacial melting is not well measured back as far as the 30s, but we know they weren’t melting back then or al the towns downstream from them would have noticed it then. But they certainly have been melting! It’s a global warming thing.

    What about the Giant Arm Waving Forests? Hard to say. Where glaciers have melted away, maybe some day there will be forests there. Many mountain glaciers, though, are up at high altitudes where there are very few arm-waving forests, but rather, stumpy short alpine forests with no arms. In any event, I’m not sure what the point of this is. Perhaps Joe is assuming that after glaciers melt giant arm waving forests grow and eat all the CO2 we are releasing into the atmosphere. Or maybe the trees just wave their arms and blow the greenhouse gasses away. I await clarification.

    Finally, there is the Medieval warm period. There was such a thing. It was warm. There are two problems, though, with this. First, it was a regional warming that happened in only some parts of the world enough to notice. But it was important. It was like having your heat on high in the winter time, then you go outside in the cold and it feels colder that it otherwise might because you were used to very warm air. This is because the Medieval warm period was followed by the little ice age. That sort of took people by surprise. The second problem with Joe’s statement is that it was not warmer then than it is now.

    Let’s look at a graph:

    Moberg_Hockey_Stick

    So, no. Not that either.

    Joe, I recommend you stick to your subject. I assume you know something about that. The random unexpected bloviation about how climate change science is wrong makes you look like a clown. Also, whoever produces this show … do try to keep track of these things. In other words, be professional!

    Atlantic Hurricane Update (Updated)

    Uncategorized,

    Over the last several days the Atlantic has been very active, producing numerous storm systems that had promise to turn into something. Only one did, Gabrielle, and Gabrielle downgraded to a stormy blob (#1 on the above graphic from the National Weather Service). Gabrielle may well be back as a tropical storm, but there is only a small chance of that. If exGabrielle does turn into something it will most likely go straight north in the Atlantic. The second item is something that the NWS hurricane people have been watching since it was over the Sahara, hinting in their regular updates that something is coming. It isn’t that common that a tropical wave gets that much air time while still over West Africa, so I’m thinking this one is for real. The update from the NWS indicates that there is about an 80% chance of this wave (#2 on the graphic) will become a tropical cyclone during the next five days. This storm, as well, would likely track north across the Atlantic.

    So, both storms have zero chance of affecting the Gulf of Mexico, and both have a high chance, if they develop into hurricanes, of tracking more or less harmlessly up the Atlantic.

    Of course, Sandy tracked up the Atlantic and then made a left turn into New Jersey/New York. I don’t think the steering conditions for that happening with either of these storms is in place at the moment, though.

    Update: That system off the West African coast now has a 90% chance of becoming a named storm. I believe the next name in line is Humberto:

    Maybe_Humberto_National_Hurricane_Center

    How does Richard Dawkins corner the Atheist market?

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    Years ago I knew Richard Dawkins as a fellow evolutionary biologist (met him only once, at a memorial event for WD Hamilton, but we have numerous mutual friends and colleagues). To be frank, and I’m only being frank now because I’d prefer not to use my real name, Dawkins was considered a bit of an enigma. He had great fame (and fortune and privilege) but that was without doing much important research. I always defended him back in those days. His fame came from The Selfish Gene and his subsequent books, and his popularization of science was well done and important. Those who complained,and there were many (but always behind his back) were just jealous.

    Then, later, Dawkins got famous in another area, as a spokesperson for atheism. In fact, as a leader of the Atheist movement worldwide. A major milestone in that digression from biology was, of course, his book, The God Delusion. In The God Delusion, he told most people in the world that they were afflicted with a psychiatric disorder that caused them to believe in god. Atheists totally ate this up and for good reason. Also, Dawkins did the whole thing in his quaint British Accent and that took some of the edge off of it, and really, he did it well.

    Then Elevatorgate happened, which had absolutely nothing to do with Richard Dawkins, but he chimed in. When he chimed in he said “Ladies, there is no way to get raped in an elevator. All you have to do is push the Stop and Door Open button and leave.” (or words to that effect).

    Then just a few weeks later the person of all the people in the world who is closest to me was raped in an elevator.

    The rape was interrupted not by her pressing the stop or open button, because they did not work. The rape was interrupted because she decided to kick the rapist’s ass. Then, he was the one pushing the buttons and when the door finally opened he ran. But it certainly did not have to turn out that way. He happened to be unarmed, for example.

    Anyway, Richard Dawkins is a dick and that is not just because of his name. He’s a dick because he is utterly unaware of his white, male, British, academic, authory, etc. etc. privilege. Which would be OK, because who really cares, but privilege interferes with activism and being the guy who wrote The God Delusion makes you an activist. Privilege interferes with being a member of a diverse community (diverse as in other people don’t have the same privilege). You can only be an effective leader of a movement if you recognize your membership in the community, even if as a leader.

    But you can stay in charge for longer than most, for longer than you deserve, if you corner the market you’ve developed for yourself. My friend and colleague Sarah Moglia overheard Dawkins say something one day that seemed to be an example of his cornering the market. He told someone in charge of major public event that if a particular person was allowed to speak at that event, Dawkins would not go. In other words, he used his huge and unchecked privilege to get another speaker tossed off the podium.

    Why? Who did he get tossed? When did this happen? Why are we only hearing about it now?

    It all comes down to Elevators, real and metaphorical. And shoes. Dawkins is actually pretty short.

    Go read Sarah’s excellent post and find out what happened.

    PS. I happen to know what Sarah is doing right now, as I’m writing this post. The image above is a clue so you can guess what that might be!

    Global Warming Slow Down?

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    Over the last decade the surface temperatures of the earth have increased. During the previous decades, the surface temperatures of the earth increased at a somewhat higher rate. Meanwhile, over the last decade there seems to be some extra heat gain in the deeper ocean. Also, some of the surface heat is busy melting the planet’s glaciers and the Arctic Sea ice. That heat does not contribute to the surface heat measurement. So, global warming has not slowed down.

    This is what we know.

    Here is a nice video that explains some of this from the Yale Climate Forum, made by Peter Sinclair.

    Imperfect Storms: A Controversy In Climate Science

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    I love it when controversy develops in climate science. It demonstrates that climate science is a science, not dogma. Also, it is interesting. And, ultimately, it is important because we need to reduce uncertainty and addressing controversy eventually does so.

    ResearchBlogging.orgThere is a new controversy in climate science about a vitally important issue. Last year, Hurricane Sandy (aka Superstorm Sandy aka Frankenstorm Sandy) devastated coastal New Jersey and flooded the Battery in Manhattan. This was a highly unlikely event. Estimates of how likely it is for a major hurricane to follow the path Sandy followed – a nearly perfect east to west trajectory from the ocean onto the land – range from once in 400 years to once in 800 years. But there was an explanation. A set of unusual large scale moving masses of air related to the jet stream had formed in such a way to shape Sandy’s storm track into a configuration never before seen for any hurricane for which we have accurate storm tracks. This configuration of air masses is best explained as the outcome of two unusual large scale weather phenomena, changes to the jet stream owing to Arctic Amplification and a negative North Atlantic oscillation. These configurations, in turn, are thought to have been made more likely by the effects of anthropogenic global warming.

    NOAA's collection of over a century and a half of Atlantic Hurricane tracks. Note that big storms go from east to west while in the tropics, then if they make it far enough north, go west to east. Storms that affect the Atlantic Coast of the US tend to move north along the coast, grazing the continent and thus weakening. A storm that goes up the Atlantic staying over warm waters such as the Gulf Stream, then moves east to west against the coast in non-weakened form, is a monster.
    NOAA’s collection of over a century and a half of Atlantic Hurricane tracks. Note that big storms go from east to west while in the tropics, then if they make it far enough north, go west to east. Storms that affect the Atlantic Coast of the US tend to move north along the coast, grazing the continent and thus weakening. A storm that goes up the Atlantic staying over warm waters such as the Gulf Stream, then moves east to west against the coast in non-weakened form, is a monster.
    For this reason it has been suggested that increased global warming due to the release of carbon into the atmosphere by widespread and intensive burning of fossil fuels will increase the likelihood of Sandy-like events in the future. A handful of research projects have supported this idea. But, now there is a new paper that suggests the opposite. Elizabeth Barnes, Lorenzo Polvani and Adam Sobel have a paper in PNAS (“Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms”) that concludes that future storm tracks in the North Atlantic, under global warming, will be more likely to push hurricanes (or their downgraded senescent forms) to the east rather than to the west ala Sandy. The authors identified the specific atmospheric features that steered Sandy into New Jersey. They then ran a number of very sophisticated climate models into the future to see if these phenomena would be more or less likely, and found that they would be less likely.

    This finding, if correct, would be good news for New York and New Jersey and other states along the east coast of the United States north of Florida. (The Sandy-like track could actually happen along a wide stretch of the coast north of the sub-tropics.) This finding (and other research) would be bad news for Western Europe because this new finding also predicts a higher chance of hurricanes, or more likely their downgraded but still significant versions, making landfall there.

    Jeff Masters, on his blog at Wunderground, has summarized some of the counter arguments to this finding. He notes that models of future climate change are limited when it comes to the sort of phenomena being addressed in this study. He notes that the current climate models predicted Arctic Sea ice reduction, but were far off the mark in the rapidity of that catastrophe. He cites a personal communication with climatologist Jennifer Francis who notes that the zone in which west to east movement of storms would likely be enhanced is far to the north of where Sandy struck land, while the strongest decreases in west to east steering may be where the steering systems that affected Sandy were, suggesting that the same models could predict an increase in Sandy-like tracks.

    Superstorm Hurricane Sandy's track was unique. First it went, as usual, from east to west in the tropics. Then it went north, then instead of heading north-northeast into the North Atlantic's hurricane graveyard, it turned abruptly to the west and hit the US Coast as a very strong storm. At the last moment, before "landfall" Sandy was downgraded from its hurricane status, but not because it grew weaker. Rather, it ate a nearby storm and gained strength, and in so doing lost its hurricane-typical organization, much like Bill Bixby lost his humanoid form by turning into the Incredible Hulk.
    Superstorm Hurricane Sandy’s track was unique. First it went, as usual, from east to west in the tropics. Then it went north, then instead of heading north-northeast into the North Atlantic’s hurricane graveyard, it turned abruptly to the west and hit the US Coast as a very strong storm. At the last moment, before “landfall” Sandy was downgraded from its hurricane status, but not because it grew weaker. Rather, it ate a nearby storm and gained strength, and in so doing lost its hurricane-typical organization, much like Bill Bixby lost his humanoid form by turning into the Incredible Hulk.
    There is another way to look at this controversy. Sandy’s track was nearly impossible. It was not quite as unlikely as all of the oxygen molecules moving, by random chance, to one corner of a room full of people causing everyone to suffocate, but it was unlikely. Imagine that I showed you a device that I claimed would cause all of the oxygen molecules to move to one corner of a room. You would not believe me because that is pretty much impossible. But if I deployed the device and it worked, you would think that my device worked. There is an alternative possibility; it is possible that my device is bogus but I deployed it at the exact moment that the oxygen molecules happen to move to one corner of the room on their own. But you would never conclude that as an explanation because it just can’t be true. Now, if my device had a less unlikely claim, such as that pressing a button on it would cause a certain stock on the New York Stock Exchange to go up instead of down, then your suspicions that my device only seemed to work by chance would be reasonable. If stocks from day to day are more or less random in their price change, my device would appear to work nearly half the time. If I showed this device independently to a dozen people, I could have a couple of them thinking that my stock price mover machine worked, but most likely they would hold on to their money until they saw more proof. But if I had a device that did something we all know has a one in a zillion chance of happening, and I press the button and the thing happens, it would be very hard for anyone to dismiss it.

    Sandy’s track was highly unlikely. But it happened. It happened because of the configuration of air masses extant at the time. The air masses were configured as they were, most likely, because of changes in atmospheric circulation owing to the warming Arctic. This happened during the one year in which the Arctic Sea ice melted more than we have ever seen it melt. If I told you that the next time the Arctic Sea ice melted as much, and as quickly, as it did in 2012 that any hurricanes that headed up the Atlantic would have an enhanced chance of following an east to west track before landfall in on the Eastern Seaboard, you’d find that a lot easier to believe than my claim about a device that moves all the Oxygen molecules to one corner of the room.

    The new study is internally consistent and uses good methods, so the conclusion is reasonably strong: global warming will not cause events like Hurricane Sandy to happen at increased frequency. Hurricane Sandy did something that was highly unlikely but did so because of conditions attributable to global warming: global warming did cause a Hurricane Sandy like event.

    Perhaps the future of hurricanes in the North Atlantic is a bit like divorces and tornadoes in Arkansas. When we consider the East Coast of the US and the West Coast of Western Europe, we’re not sure what is going to happen, but either way, somebody’s going to lose themselves a coastline.

    Barnes, Elizabeth, Polvani, Lorenzo, & Sobel, Adam (2013). Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms PNAS DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1308732110

    Energy Exodus: Rally to Build Cape Wind

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    Here is a press release for an upcoming event:

    At the culminating event on the 66 mile Energy Exodus march, over 150 ralliers will call for the Town of Barnstable to withdraw its lawsuit against the Cape Wind offshore wind farm and begin negotiating in good faith with Cape Wind and federal and state agencies. They will demand that the Town stop taking money from local oil billionaire Bill Koch, who has put over $1.5 million into efforts to delay the wind farm.

    Rally speakers will also highlight upcoming opportunities in New England for the marchers to continue advancing the global and regional transition to clean energy. A combination of speakers and performers will end the 66 mile march on a high and hopeful note.

    Where: Aselton Memorial Park, Hyannis, MA (corner of South and Ocean Streets)

    When: Monday, Sept 2, 1-3:30PM

    Who: Speakers will include:

    <li>Barbara Hill,former Executive Director of Clean Power Now</li>
<li>Craig Altemose, Executive Director of Better Future Project</li>
<li>Emily Edgerly, member of Students for a Just and Stable Future</li>
<li>Ben Thompson, member of Students for a Just and Stable Future and Energy Exodus co-lead organizer</li>

    The band Melodeego will be performing.

    Background: The Cape Wind Project will be the nation’s first offshore wind farm, built on Horseshoe Shoal in Nantucket Sound. With 130 wind turbines, the project is expected to produce about 75% of the average electricity demand for the region. It could offset close to a million tons of carbon dioxide every year, and produce 1000 jobs for local residents during construction. However, those climate, health, and economic benefits have been held up by oil billionaire Bill Koch, who owns a vacation home on the Cape and has spent over $1.5 million on various efforts to delay the construction of the wind farm.

    About Energy Exodus March: For six days across 66 miles, starting August 28th, dozens of citizens from all over New England have marched from the Brayton Point coal and gas plant outside Fall River to the future site of Cape Wind, the nation’s first offshore wind project.

    Organized by Better Future Project and Students for a Just and Stable Future, the march highlights the need to transition from fossil fuel energy to clean renewable power like that the Cape Wind project will soon provide. Energy Exodus marchers aim to build political momentum to hasten the transition to renewable energy in Massachusetts, promoting healthier communities and a stable climate.

    Energy Exodus Website is HERE.