Here is a nice new graphic showing the polling data for four of the current Democratic candidates. The graphic is meant to contrast the campaigns with respect to their overall pattern of performance over time.
Each of the four graphs represents polling from April to the present.
Each graph has four lowess smoothed lines representing the data, with all four candidate’s lines on each of the four graphs.
Each candidate gets its own graph, with those four lines, but with that candidate’s polling data shown.
The polling data is normalized so that each point is the proportion of polling points across just these four candidates, so there are no effects of other candidates entering or leaving the race.
All four graphics are on the same scale, but since I don’t want scale or actual polling numbers to be the focus, I did not include them.
What we see here is four distinctly different patterns. Biden is a top candidate with a declining campaign. Warren is an up and coming candidate with an expanding campaign. I used to use the term “flat line” to describe Sanders’ numbers, but I won’t do that any more. Let’s just say he has a nice, healthy, straight line that does not go up or down.
Harris has a campaign that experienced a temporary peak that went away.
Pretty cool graph, if I may say so myself.