Warming up to certain candidates

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Good work, mateys! Joe Biden’s new climate plan is pretty much in line with the Green New Deal. Way to pressure!

This moves Biden from bottom to middle tier for me, which makes me feel better about the fact that he is crushing everyone else in early polls.

California Convention. Since California a) has more electoral votes and more national party delegates than any other state, and b) is a Super Tuesday state now, all of the sudden for the first time in memory, the California Convention received additional special attention outside of California.

And, candidates were sorted. Have a look:

Yay Warren! Yay Sanders! Yay Buttigieg! Yay Harris! Boo Hefferlooper, Boo that other guy!

Perhaps California Democrats are not the same as other Democrats, but in fact, they aren’t different. The outliers in the Party of Kennedy and Wellstone are the right wingers found here and there in Old Dixie or or the High Plains, and a few machine cities or country states in Appalachia or the south. I think we saw some of the herd thinned out in California.

Head to heads. In a recent Quinnipiac poll held in Texas, Biden beat Trump in the head to head, but Trump beat all the other tested candidates. In Michigan, Biden and Sanders trounced trump in the head to head, and Warren, Harris, and Buttigieg did fine. Who cares. Trump was going to win Texas anyway, since Texas is populated with so many god fearing evangelicals who love them their transgressors.

Warren. Warren remains a weak third, but consistent in that spot. In the frontline primary states (New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina) it is typically Biden and Sanders in first (strong) and second place. In the latest North Carolina poll (which is not South Carolina, but still, has a lot of African American voters and it is near South Carolina) that held true, but Warren pulled a very strong third (39-22-15). But generally, Warren, while usually in third place, does not break single digits and is statistically in the same bed as Harris and Buttigieg.

Yang, Gabbard, Ryan and Inslee are number one candidates. And by that, I mean, if you round up their numbers, the get to 1%. I don’t see a way up for them, even though this is very early in the race. Klobuchar, Booker, and Castro are consistently in the wings, the one digit 1-3 point wings, and there are things about them that might make them factors later on. They seem to be keeping their powder dry. O’Rourke and Buttigieg could possibly be described as candidates that peaked but then sort of guttered. They are still in the race, but at the moment they were supposed to ride into town on their dark horse, the horse was doing something else that day.

Until proven otherwise, it feels like a race between Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Harris, with Warren and Harris ready to move ahead at any moment, though the Buttigieg-O’Rourke-Booker faction looms small in the background.

In other words, I have no faith in the idea that it is a totally open race. It is a race between twenty-whatever people in which a maximum of five are for real, and we know who the top two or three are and the next two or three will come from a small set of the remainders.

I also have no faith in the order of the leaders. Biden has a history of guttering. I don’t see Sander support moving because of Sanders, but rather, because he absorbs support from other candidates. If ever there was a primary season where an early adoption of a veep is tempting, it is this one. A wavering Biden could be surpassed by a suddenly formed team of two of the top non-front runners, as long as one of them is Sanders. I hasten to add this piece of classic advice about vice presidents: Don’t do that. No talk about the vice president until the convention.

(Hickenlooper and Delaney need new campaign managers. Or just don’t bother.)

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5 thoughts on “Warming up to certain candidates

  1. Biden has a bad habit of plagiarism – caught again this time copying parts of his climate change plan

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/04/plagiarism-biden-climate-change-plan-1504950

    it’s not even the second time he’s been accused
    From Wikipedia https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Joe_Biden_1988_presidential_campaign

    He ran for President of the United States in the 1988 United States presidential election. He was considered one of the strongest candidates in the field. However, in September 1987, newspaper stories stated he had plagiarized a speech by British politician Neil Kinnock. Other allegations of past law school plagiarism and exaggerating his academic record soon followed. Biden withdrew from the race later that month.

    That sort of dishonesty rankles my sense of fairness, add to that his neoliberal centrist philosophy and if I were an eligible voter I would not ever consider him as I would not be able to trust anything he says he would do.

  2. An outsider’s perspective…

    Biden might be a nice guy, and a steady hand, but he’s yesterday’s news with no demonstrated capacity to overcome his yesterday’s shortcomings.

    Sanders is possibly the dose of Epsom salts that the US needs, but his age is a serious issue. As is the conservative inability to swallow Epsom salts.

    Warren is articulate, and passionate, and intelligent, and informed, and largely objective, but she needs serious voice coaching (as Obama always did after he won in 2008…), and the US right-wing may exaggerate her femaleness alongside her reputation established by Trump, and her slightly strident and quavering way of speaking. If she can cultivate some gravitas she might rise, and I’d like to see Buttigeig or Jay Inslee as VP. Preferably Inslee, because he has a better wide-vision understanding of the issues pressing nationally and internationally, even though he’s not a well-known quantity.

    Harris would be a good alternative to Warren, but perhaps needs extra time for recognition and acceptance, as she has colour as well as gender to dissuade the irrational conservative infection that afflicts too much US social thought.

    Others such as O’Rourke would be far better directed to win seats in the Senate, where they have both a much better chance at success as well as an incredible opportunity to make serious advances in the political landscape.

  3. Good work, mateys! Joe Biden’s new climate plan is pretty much in line with the Green New Deal. Way to pressure!

    I agree. Now they need to pressure him on the Hyde Amendment. Elizabeth Warren has a better position on that.

  4. I’ve just been listening to Michael Bennett being interviewed by Rachel Maddow. This man is another worthy candidate, with both political acumen and broad-issues wisdom, and I thoroughly approve of his call for a tripartisan coalition of people of integrity from the Democrats, the Republicans (need to look hard…), and independents.

    I’ve called for similar in Australian government, and I think that it’s the only way to heal democracy in the 21st century where conservative interests have used the media and other modern technologies to corrupt previous democratic processes.

    I hope that Bennett gains a higher profile in the campaign and at least substantially shapes the conversation.

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