US Senate Will Be Republican Controlled or 50-50

According to me. And, I quickly add, that this is NOT a formal analysis. This is just my gut feeling combined with looking at the polls and stuff. Bottom line: Missouri and Nevada are the key states to watch.

Montana is considered a toss-up state, but I do not regard it as one. Tester is well established and has been ahead in polls, including good polls. Democratic incumbent senator John Tester will pass the ultimate test and put his challenger on the mat.

Nevada is a tossup. Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen has had a strong showing in several polls, and was gaining on incumbent Dean Heller. It is possible that there is a Kavanaugh effect. In my first iteration of an an analysis across the Senate, I’d put Nevada in Heller’s pocket. But there if urban labor can get organized, and if the Kavanaugh effect blunts over time, I can see Rosen clear to a victory. So, I’ll put Democrat Jacky Rosen in the win column in my Plan B analysis.

Arizona is going to be interesting. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema was strong through the summer, but McSally’s campaign sallied forth and caught up in September. One could see the last month in Nevada as a volatile horse race. What looks like a last minute Kavanaugh backlash may wear off. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that Sinema will win in Arizona.

I hate to say it, but Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp, in North Dakota, is going to lose, and the Republican Kramer is going to win. This race is considered by many as a tossup, but it is more of a toss-out.

If Beto O’Rourke wins in Texas, I’ll eat my cowboy hat. He never really had a chance of beating Cruz. Texas is an asshole state, and everything is Texas is extra big,and Cruz is a the biggest asshole of them all. Too bad.

Some analyses put Senator Tina Smith in an uncertain column for her return to represent Minnesota. I would have done so a couple of weeks ago as well, but the North Star state is coming together. Probably a Kavanaugh effect in favor of the DFL. Smith will win in Minnesota.

In Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill seems to be losing. But if there is a race the Democrats can pull out of the ditch by doing things like sending lots of money, allowing Mich McConnell to ram through 16 right wing judges so the Dems could go home and campaign, and that sort of stuff, it is this race. I will not underestimate McCaskill. She’ll be returned. And, no, there was no Kavanaugh effect there.

Democrat Donnelly is solid in Indiana.

Democrat Nelson is taking off in Florida and will win there.

All of the other races are going as they are going. There will be Democrats in Wisconisn, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Republicans in Mississippi, Tennessee, and the other usually Republican states.

The only uncertainty is Nevada. Leaving Nevada out of the count, there will be 49 Democrats and 50 Republicans. If Nevada actually goes, as currently seems likely, to the GOP, the Party of Hate will have two more Senators than the Democratic Party. But, it is distinctly possible that Nevada will send a Democrat to the Senate instead, which will cause the Senate to break 50.

Of those I’ve assigned, obviously, Missouri is the most uncertain. Everything seems to depend on Missouri and Nevada.

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13 thoughts on “US Senate Will Be Republican Controlled or 50-50

  1. “Texas is an asshole state, and everything is Texas is extra big,and Cruz is a the biggest asshole of them all.”

    And then liberals stand around, tears streaming down their face, and wonder how they lost the last election…

    1. Are you denying that Texas is an asshole state, or are you denying that Ted Cruz is an asshole?

      I’d go for the former, partly. Not every single Texan is an asshole, just a strong majority. But for the latter, you have got to be kidding me.

      Also, if you are talking about the presidential election, a) we won the popular vote and b) you needed help from Putin, so don’t brag too loudly.

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  2. They also needed help for the “purists” who wouldn’t vote Clinton because she wasn’t progressively pure enough (which idea Putin certainly helped along) and of course the idiots who voted for Putin’s handmaiden the Green Party’s candidate.

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  3. “Texas is an asshole state, …”
    Now we getting somewhere.
    Why, what’s your rationale?
    Perhaps, could it be…
    They are exceptionalist?
    They got some WMDs and have a stereotypical character that could well be considered militaristic?
    Have made some weird arse decisions about education?
    Carry on pathetically with flagwaving nationalistic ( or is that statistics? ) bullshit?
    Not every American is an arseholes but by golly there is a fucktonne of em.
    Imo there’s not a whole lot of difference between Texas and Minnisota.
    Sorry people who value state character. The feds won.
    Yous have all harmonized into one people who are nationalistic, flag waving, WMD loving, militaristic, badly educated, fuckwits.
    Of course there are exceptions.
    Next time you vote, ask the office of the candidate you are considering if they support nuclear weapons? If they support comprehensive education?
    If they think nationalism is the bees knees?
    If they believe in some bullshit called race?
    If they love their massive military being all over the world, not just in war, but all the time?
    Because all the voters for both major parties seem to have supported these things so far.
    USA ain’t no different than Texas.

    1. What’s the equivalent of the word for nationalistic but for a state? Statistic? Provincial? Fucked if I know.

    2. “If they believe in some bullshit called race?” If they say yes, they are anti science or at best, woefully ill informed, so if ya don’t mind that, vote accordingly.

    3. All I know about Australia is from Crocodile Dundee movies, some tv shows on PBS — “Dreamland” in particular, and a couple of people who used to live there, so I wouldn’t feel qualified to generalize about an entire country of what is it, about 25 million people now?

      I presume, though, from your comments, that Australians haven’t “harmonized into one people who are nationalistic, flag waving, … badly educated, fuckwits.” Good to know.

    4. “I presume, though, from your comments, that Australians haven’t “harmonized into one people who are nationalistic, flag waving, … badly educated, fuckwits.” Good to know.”
      Oh they have. Bunch of fucking idiots.
      So fucking stupid the government has to have to tell adults how to put rubbish in the bin, and to wear seatbelts. Not children, adults.
      And the nationalistic crap every Australia day blows my mind.
      There is superficial state identities ( and rivalries) but it’s bullshit. Our international image is of a bunch of fuckwits because of our tourists behavior when they travel and our treatment of asylum seekers.
      The thing is, Greg don’t bring up Australia so I don’t hook into Australia. To stay on topic I write about what he writes. Which is almost entirely USA crap, recently.

      Of course it’s not all Australians.

      I can generalise about USA people and feel comfortable and confident doing so.
      There is no large ( or even small?)movement amongst donkeys or elephants or the voters to disarm WMDs.
      That tells me a lot.
      It’s the same for the Chinese and Russians and Indians and French and English
      etc too. The citizens of them places are fucked.
      I only single USA out cuz that’s all Greg talks about.

  4. Greg, I take issue with your “Texas is an asshole state.” I was stationed there for a while when I was in the army – muchas décadas ago – and liked many things about it. Things, that is, aside from the intolerable heat, the tornadoes, and all the assholes.

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  5. I sure hope you are wrong about this. If the Rapeublicans* retain control then its not just the United States that’s going to suffer here but the rest of the planet too. Bloody grim forecast. 🙁

    * The party of Trump, Kavanaugh and Roy Moore has well and truly earnt that moniker.

    1. Whatever Kavanaugh did or didn’t do, the Trumpists-modern Republican combination is out to resume large-scale environmental rape in their quest to move the country back to the 1800s, those wonderful days when we were really great. Back then, the Supreme Court was on the right side, women and minorities knew their place or were soon taught it, and if making yourself rich turned a patch of the land (that you may have stolen from the natives) into barren wasteland, you just picked up and moved on.

  6. I’m willing to bet $1 that the rePUKEians will be at least 50% of congress, as I never underestimate human st00pidity. And I would really love to be wrong!!

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