Roy Moore will not be elected to the United States Senate by the good people of Alabama. Here’s why.

The last four polls show Moore ahead of Jones by 6% and 10%, even, and Jones ahead of Moore by 4%. All these polls were done over the last week, and there is no temporal trend to speak of. This means, of course, that the race is not fait accompli. While Moore is more ahead than Jones when he is ahead, Moore is only ahead in half the recent polls. Yet, everyone is convinced that Moore will win no matter what. I believe that is incorrect.

This polling data and the strange way in which most seem to interpret it is parallel to another confusion. It is said that the People of Alabama love to vote for Moore and will always elect him. This is not true.

In 2001, Moore defeated multiple primary opponents to get the Republican Party nomination for Chief Justice for the Alabama Supreme Court. I believe his opponents split the vote, and Moore won that race by about 50%. In the general, Moore was a Republican running against one of the few remaining Democrats in a state that was getting rid of the Democrats, and Moore ran on the coat tails of an ongoing culture war (over church-state, social justice, and education issues) at the same time that Bush and Gore were slogging it out. There was no way for Moore to not win, and he was likely to do very well in the general election. He won, but I think it was a close race, in a year with very low voter turnout (the data are unavailable at this time). Moore’s victory was real but unimpressive.

In 2006 Moore ran for the Republican nomination for governor in Alabama and was resoundingly defeated. It was a landslide. His opponent cleaned the floor with Moore’s face. Moore hardly showed himself to be a winner on that day. Not impressive.

In 2010, Moore again sought the Republican nomination. He came in fourth. We are not impressed.

In 2012, Moore was elected to the Alabama Supreme Court, from which he had been removed by a higher power for violating the Constitution multiple times. (He was later to be removed again.) He had won the Republican primary with 50% of the vote. Are we impressed by this? Not really. In the general, there were five judges elected that year, every one of them except Moore won by over 98% of the vote. That included two incumbents, and one non-incumbent. Moore won by 52% of the vote. Impressed, we are not.

This brings us to the 2017 election. You know the basic story. Moore defeated Strange in a special primary. Moore received 39% of the vote, and Strange, 33%. So, Moore did not demonstrate the love affair with Alabama voters many seem to assume, and he did not win by a large margin. But it was a clear victory. But you may not know the whole story. Strange was the Alabama Attorney General set to investigate the state’s governor, who was embroiled in a complex and startling sex and money controversy. It is widely believed, I’m told, that Governor Bentley appointed Strange to take Sesson’s place in the Senate in order to get him off his back, perhaps even as a pay-off. Nobody is sure what really happened, but this was a big deal in Alabama. There was no way Strange was going to do well at the ballot box during this special election. Indeed, he may have done better than one might have expected.

So, when it comes to the 2017 primary election, Roy Moore’s victory impressed with, we are not.

By the way, Moore started a possible campaign for President in 2012, and there was insufficient support for him to develop it.

In order to believe that Roy Moore is definitely going to be elected to represent Alabama in the United States Senate, you may have to believe that many, perhaps most, of the people of Alabama are cousin-screwing pedophilic slack-jawed banjo-playing yokels who don’t care about the moral fiber of their representatives, at least when it comes to sex. They get so much of this at home, they don’t even notice it in their leaders. And that may well be true. If you read Alan Taylor’s excellent book American Revolutions: A Continental History, 1750-1804, you will find out that the ancient history of the southern colonies may have provided some of the groundwork for this sort of thing, shockingly.

But I don’t believe it. I don’t think most people in Alabama don’t care that Roy Moore has a history of harassment and assault of young girls. In fact, there is evidence that they do care. There is talk that Moore was banned from a shopping mall in the 1980s because he was going after the young girls. The Alabamans associated with the Gadsden Mall, if this report turns out to be true, noticed, cared about, and eschewed Moore-style behavior.

Moore’s victories have had the following three characteristics: 1) They are rare; He has not come close to winning every race; 2) They are meager. He has an OK showing at the polls, but nothing to cause us today to say he is unbeatable, not by any means; and 3) They are existentially unimpressive. He won when there was a tide going his way, or his opposition was divided.

I believe that Roy Moore believes himself to be unbeatable. I actually think it is possible that he will quit before the election, but if that happens it will happen this week, otherwise, not at all. This is a suspicion I have because it seems that things are going on of which we can not see the details, on the surface, and strong political forces are lining up to wipe him out. But this will probably not happen, and his hubris will be hard to reckon with, and his hubris will likely cause him to go to the mat in December.

But that hubris will not sway Alabama voters. The polls show a close race, and forces of civilization, which have at least a toehold in Alabama, are converging. Fewer people will vote for him than you might think.

Also, there is a statistical argument to make. Polls show the race close. Moore historically wins at just around 50% or less. So, we can’t assume that a large majority support him. The population of Alabama includes about 26% African American citizens, and a couple of percent other, mainly Hispanic. Roy Moore is not a candidate for the non-white.

Alabama is 63% protestant, including 37% baptist, and 6% Snake Handlers. Some of those protestants are the ones willing to vote for someone like Moore just for religious reasons. No one else wants to do that. About 8% are non-Christian (including Mormon and Jehovah’s Witness, with 1% Jewish) and about 6% non-religious. Assume that distribution is roughly reflected across white voters (though it is more likely that the 6% non religion is more white). This means that fewer than 63% of 74% of the voters, or about 47% at most, are going to stick with Roy Moore because they hold nearly identical religious beliefs, including the idea that child molestation and other crimes, as well as being anti-Constitutional, are unimportant as long as one will follow the directives of the local ministers while in office. So, even the raw demographics which is the most powerful predictive model I know of, shows that this will be a very close race, with Moore unlikely to win.

Take a 50-50 race and add all the things biasing in only one direction. The candidate that is being carried away by that tide will lose.

Roy Moore will not be elected to the United States Senate by the good people of Alabama.

Probably.

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30 thoughts on “Roy Moore will not be elected to the United States Senate by the good people of Alabama. Here’s why.

  1. I’m not as confident as you are (I say that even after I take your final “maybe” into consideration). I realize the pro-Moore interviews seen on the news are little more than anecdotes, but the fact that there is anyone in that state who can say
    * I don’t believe the women because Roy Moore is a Christian
    * He said he didn’t remember dating any girls without the permission of their mother — what’s wrong with that?
    * He may have done these things but when you look at what his opponent has done (apparently in reference to the opponent having worked against the KKK and other groups) it’s not bad

    it’s terribly difficult for me to be sure the number of people with similar views is low enough to make Moore’s defeat reasonably certain.

    I’m not sure how his history of racism, bigotry, misogyny, being a homophobe, a liar, and an assbag so big he (with his wife) skimmed huge amounts of money from their “charity” without claiming it could still be considered a candidate, but that is the state of the current republican party.

  2. Bannon/Moore v Swamp
    Symphonic media character assassination. No time for discovery or cross examination of the claims being made, simply a constant drip of assertions…how could anyone overcome this onslaught? Oh, yeah, reputation and the assumption of innocence.

    1. Amazingly hypocritical from you (not surprising however) considering your ranting over conspiracies about other things.

  3. “Even if the allegations are true, Roy Moore is not guilty of sexual harassment. He is accused of having made a gross, dumb, and reckless pass at a girl during a low point in her life. She pushed him away, she said, and it never happened again. In other words, Roy Moore took ‘no’ for an answer.”

  4. “I trusted Mr. Moore because he was district attorney, I thought he was doing something nice to offer to drive me home,” said Nelson.

    She detailed her fighting off Moore in the car as he squeezed her neck, forcing her head onto his crotch.

    She said that Moore eventually gave up, and told her, “You’re just a child, I’m the district attorney if you tell anyone about this no one will ever believe you.”

    No, nothing more than harassment, obviously.

    Christ how people will lie to defend this scumbag.

    1. I was merely quoting Gloria Steinem with regards to Bill Clinton.

      I don’t believe the last woman who appeared with Gloria Allred. Her story is somewhat similar to the one made by Bialek, when she appeared with Gloria Allred to accuse Herman Cain.
      Someone should take a look at all of her clients’ statements.

    1. There’s a simple fact you appear to be unaware of:

      Sex testimony leads to immensely more clicks and sells far more advertising than accountant testimony. This is true regardless of party.

    1. Clack’s responses are sufficiently detailed to make an unambiguous case:

      Clack response #1 to Jacobson response to Clack17:
      http://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ResponseToJacobson_100Studies_June2017.pdf

      Clack response #2 to Jacobson response to C17:
      http://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ReplyResponse.pdf

      The horribly inappropriate court action by Jacobson puts the seal on it, really. He just should not have done that.

    1. No, it doesn’t. However, the Gloria Steinem standard if it was accurate then, applies to Moore as well. I see some liberals are starting to go after Bill Clinton now that he’s not important to defend.
      Chris Hayes started the ball rolling. We’ll see if liberals will go after Al Franken the same way, with video evidence of something that would get you expelled from college.

    2. If Roy Moore did what the two women said, then he should not be elected Senator, and should be thrown out if elected. That he dated girls is not cause for throwing him out, and I would leave it to Alabama to decide if it is reason to not vote for him.

  5. The question is now weather or not
    Vice Senator Big Al Franken is re-electable.

    The MSM or MOP, does not denote that he
    is a Demco.

    Cover up dat “D.”

  6. In my view, if a claimant has not made a
    declaration within a decade all claims
    are null and void.

    It is non-partisan, applying to all. It is why we
    have statutes of limitations.

    As for the women coming forward to charge Harvey
    and others, they did not act because their careers were
    more important than their “sex” attack. This why evil
    has such potent power, as it is easier to walk away from
    unpleasantries than to confront it.

    It happens all the time. Example, profanity is now common
    parlance, even by females.

    Lucifer, gives this kindest regards.

    1. In my view, if a claimant has not made a
      declaration within a decade all claims
      are null and void.

      But you are a rightwing nutjob and your ‘views’ aren’t worth inscribing on toilet paper.

      It happens all the time. Example, profanity is now common
      parlance, even by females.

      Lucifer, gives this kindest regards.

      What? You’re a religious fundamental nut as well? Should they cover their heads in church as well? And walk three paces behind men? And not speak unless spoken to?

      Clownshoe.

  7. That he dated girls is not cause for throwing him out, and I would leave it to Alabama to decide if it is reason to not vote for him.

    Yeah, it’s perfectly fine for men in their 30s to date teenage girls. (Again, really?)

    if a claimant has not made a
    declaration within a decade all claims
    are null and void.

    We can be grateful people who decide things are far more intelligent than that.

    1. No, it’s not ‘perfectly fine’, but there is a difference between ‘not perfectly fine’ and ‘grounds for throwing someone out of the Senate’. People will vote with this in mind, and my guess is keep him out because of it.
      The only thing keeping him afloat is the opportunity to attack Washington Post and Gloria Allred. The yearbook being a forgery is something he can focus on and cover up the rest of the accusations. Gloria Allred is refusing to hand over the yearbook except for a phantom Senate hearing in the next two weeks. They’re made for each other.

  8. Allredd, has now been exposed as a lying
    fairytale teller.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/11/calls-grow-arrest-gloria-allred-forged-document-including-accusers-stepson/

    “Strangely, “To a sweeter more beautiful girl I could not say, ‘Merry Christmas.’ Love, Roy,” is written in black ink, while “Moore DA, 12-22-77, Olde Hickory House,” is in blue ink.”

    “And then there’s this…
    Judge Roy Moore was not the DA in 1978. He would not have signed a signature with DA after it.”

    If one plans on being consummate liar, you
    better have a first class memory.

    How much was the accuser paid for these manifestations?

  9. MikeN: “I was merely quoting Gloria Steinem with regards to Bill Clinton.”

    Huh — I would have guessed it was taken from a story about the kiss Leeann Tweeden says Al Franken forced on her.

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