Monthly Archives: August 2013

Climate Change, Cat 6 Hurricanes, Al Gore

These things are all connected.

A couple of days ago a good ally in the climate change fight … the fight to make people realize that climate change is not some librul conspiracy to raise taxes on the rich … goofed. It was a minor goof, barely a goof at all. We do not yet know the nature of the goof but it was somewhere between saying something in a slightly clumsy manner and a bit of misremembering something that happened in 2005 during an interview. That’s it. Nothing else to see here.

But that goof has been wrenched form its context and turned into a senseless and embarrassingly stupid attack on science by the likes of Anthony Watts, who really is one of the more despicable people I know of on the internet outside the MRA community (even he’s not that bad, and I’ve even noticed a sense of humor now and then).

It all started when Ezra Klein published an interview with Al Gore on Wonkblog. It was good interview and it was nicely written up. They talked about crossing the 400 ppm mark, electricity prices from alternative energy sources, the nature of technological change vis-a-vis green energy, international climate treaty making and cap and trade strategies, the politics of climate denial and the shift from being concerned about climate to denying the science in the Republican party, what’s going on in the current administration, geoengineering, storms, and all sorts of other things.

But then Jason Samenow, of the Captial Weather Gang, noticed something in the interview that seemed wrong. He wrote a blog post about “Al Gore’s Science Fiction” to make sure that every body knew about this apparent error. Then, the Union of Concerned Scientists, in an apparent paroxysm of well meant, but really, totally bone-headed, intent to demonstrate that people who are on board with climate science can criticize each other so we must all be for real, restated that something Vice President Gore had said to make him look like he was some sort of dummy, which he is not. The Union of Concerned Scientists, realizing their error, issued a pretty standard notpology. The notpology was disappointing. I know that people there understand that they got it all wrong … apparently at the institutional level they can’t just say “oops, sorry” but rather something more like “oh yes, things were misunderstood, but still, our point is valid.” We are reminded once again that institutions do have their limits.

Anyway, Ezra, for his part, dug back into memory and consulted with Vice President Gore and his staff and clarified what he said Al Gore said. But, that was not before lame, mean spirited, ill intentioned, ignorant, and embarrassingly giddy offal started to spew from the denialists. Anthony Watts got into it because that is how Anthony Watts masterbates. He draws cartoon glasses and piles of dog poo on pictures of Al Gore and that gets him off. The Hill jumped in with a piece by Ben Geman about how Al Gore goofed. The Free Republic came in its pants too. Almost nobody made mention of a single other thing in the interview, nobody checked their facts, nobody understood the original meaning of Vice President Gore’s remarks which were, in fact, dead on. But everybody got dirty. Shame on all of them (to varying degrees).

Here’s what actually happened (never mind the interview, the Union of Concerned Scientists concern trolling, or the circle jerk of denialism with Anthony Watts in the middle).

First, storms got worse. Yes, yes, you will hear climate science denialists insisting that they have not gotten worse, but they have. Hurricanes are worse now than they were decades ago, and global warming is implicated in that.

Then, some people, including some scientists and science communicators, discussed the idea of adding a Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale. This conversation happened in and after 2005. The Cat Six storms would be those greater than 151 or 160 knots. Not many storms have ever been this strong, but there are a few. Robert Simpson, of the Saffir-Simpson Scale, suggested that this would not be necessary because the whole idea of the scale was to represent storms in terms of human and property impacts, and a Cat Six storm would not really be worse than a Cat Five storm because a Cat Five storm is bad enough . He said “…when you get up into winds in excess of 155 mph (249 km/h) you have enough damage if that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it’s going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it’s engineered.” (I disagree strongly with that statement, by the way.)

There are indeed reasons to revisit the Saffir-Simpson scale. There is a lot of information lost by just looking at wind speeds. Paul Douglas turned me on to this graphic demonstrating that when it comes to hurricanes, size matters:

image001

Look closely. There are TWO Pacific Cyclones (aka Hurricanes) represented in that picture. Reminds me of the drawings designed to demonstrate the vast range of body size in primates, like this one:

f2.1

But I digress. The point is, Saffir-Simpson is inadequate for what we need. We should be able to take a metric used for hurricanes and add the metric up at the end of the season and say something pretty accurate about how much energy was packaged in those beasts that year and in that ocean basin. Indeed, people who study hurricanes do this … they measure hurricanes in various ways. But the Saffir-Simpson scale is the most well known, and it only measures maximum sustained winds and nothing else, and the scale is not open ended so the biggest storms look like the second biggest storms.

So, given that storms are getting worse and the scale is inadequate, the discussion of at least adding a Cat Six happened, and this is what Gore mentioned.

But the Union of Concerned Scientists, or should I call them for now the Onion of Concerned Scientists, said this of Gore’s statement (and I quote mine):

Al Gore, Climate Science, and the Responsibility for Careful Communication…

When I was in fourth grade, I wrote Vice President Al Gore a letter … I believed then, as I do now, that he is a strong voice for issues with an environmental component such as climate change. And, importantly, he has become, to many people, the public face of climate science….But unfortunately he recently got it wrong about the science of climate change…Gore inaccurately suggested that the hurricane scale will now include a category 6… this is untrue. There are no plans by the National Hurricane Center—the federal office responsible for categorizing storms—to create a new category….Since writing that letter as a ten-year-old, I’ve earned a degree in atmospheric science and learned to value to the role that science plays in informing public policy. Science—and climate change especially—needs effective communicators…

and so on and so forth. How annoying of Al Gore to be so annoying. What a disappointment. I WAS A CHILD AND I WROTE HIM A LETTER AND NOW HE DOES THIS TO ME!!!

OK, take it down a notch.

Al Gore was referring to the discussion I mention above. Perhaps he made this reference clumsily. Ezra may have quoted him wrong, and he now states that is likely (he’s not been able to check his tape yet) so them message got further garbled. Then, some bloggers including one at Union of concerned Scientists decided to make a case of it. And now we have a nice science denialist orgy going with Head Orgy Master Debater Anthony Watts running the show. Joe Romm has more on the interview and what Vice President Gore said here.

There are three things you need to take away from this:

1) Al Gore is an effective communicator and knows a lot about climate science. If you hear that he said something that is wrong, before you get all “concerned” consider the possibility that he didn’t.

2) We really do need to look at how we characterize hurricanes.

3) The science denialists really have nothing, if this is what gets them so excited. They should get out more.

Anthropologist Neil Tappen Has Died

Neil Tappen is probably most well known for having worked out the species and distribution of species in Central and western East Africa in the 1950s, as everyone who has worked in the area since then, from Jane Goodall to Richard Wrangham, has used his work as a tool in their own study of apes and monkeys of the region. He also worked on bone growth and development and taphonomy. Many others know him for his teaching and training of students, of which there were many. If you are reading this blog, you probably know or at least know of Genie Scott, for example. Neil was her undergraduate professor.

Searching for Dinosaurs at Waggoner Ranch, 1951.  Neil Tappen is on the left. from: www.noogen.narod.ru/iefremov/Olson/Ch3.htm
Searching for Dinosaurs at Waggoner Ranch, 1951. Neil Tappen is on the left.
I know Neil as my ex-father-in-law and as the grandfather of my daughter Julia.

Neil died on August 18th after a couple of weeks struggle with a series of medical issues precipitated by a bad fall, which in turn was precipitated by a series of medical issues, all typical of someone 100 +/- 5 years in age. As far as I know he was about as sharp as always right up to that time, though with failing eyesight it took him much longer to devour his usual giant stack of reading every day.

The most important thing I can tell you about Neil, if you didn’t know him, is this: He understood the idea of living in interesting times, and he paid attention to what was interesting about his own times.

He’ll be buried tomorrow, Friday, at Fort Snelling.

How to do any genetic research you want without getting permission.

Let’s say you want to do a market-related study in which you gain entry to one thousand homes representing sets of people defined by the usual variables of income, ethnicity, urban-suburban lifestyle etc. The first thing you do is to ask a few people, real nice like, if you can go through their stuff and take a lot of photographs and notes. Most of them say no, and you perhaps even discover that the one or two who actually agree to this are odd ducks. So you go to Plan B. This involves breaking into the homes when the people are out so you can get your data despite the fact that they don’t want to participate. But you get caught and can’t do that any more. So, now you are faced with the reality that your research plans are done for.

But wait, there is a way to get similar data without needing any permission from anyone and it is not illegal, and in fact, it could actually be cheaper and easier than your original proposal and, while it may not provide the same exact results, it could even provide BETTER results. Let’s call it Plan C.

Plan C involves looking at every iteration of every single Google Street View picture ever taken anywhere in the US at any time. All of them. The vast majority of these photographs will show you nothing, but every here and there, you will get some data. There will be a shot that shows a thing in an open window, or an open door, or an open garage, or being carried into our out of a person’s house, being delivered, thrown out on the curb, sold in a garage sale, sitting on the lawn after an explosion or fire, or in use (especially yard and garden implements). This is not the same thing as sampling hundreds of houses once each, looking at all contents. But it is sampling the homes lived in by hundreds of millions of people, and sampling them dozens of times over a few years. That could be some amazing data.

And nobody can stop you from studying this source of information or doing this research. If someone does try to stop you with silly regulations from a University or something, just change into a Journalist. Then you’re golden. It would be WRONG to stop a journalist from using this information!

Turns out that this works with genes, but even better. One might want to study the relationship between a putative genetic marker and a possible behavioral thing, like maybe a psychiatric disorder or something, in a genetically bottle necked tribal group somewhere. You can try to get permission to do this, and maybe you’ll get it. Maybe you won’t get permission but you can certainly steal the genetic data from some place and do the research anyway. But people will get mad at you and you’ll not get any more research money.

Or, you can go to Plan C.

Here’s how Plan C works with genes. We have a good idea of the distribution of many genetic markers that have to do with geographical patterns over time. (Some people would use the term “race” in that sentence but that’s incorrect and unnecessary.) So, something like “East Asian” or “Native South American” or “Central African” or whatever has a list of genetic markers that go with it. Genes are supposed to “independently assort” and act all random and all, but they don’t. At the finest level, on chromosomes, genetic markers that are near each other travel together because of “linkage.” More importantly, genes move in populations. So, those East Asian genetic markers are not going to get all mixed up with the Central African genetic markers too often. Also, if you have enough samples, some mixing up doesn’t matter all that much.

So, if you want to study a disease-related “gene” (allele, a variant of a gene, really), if you think such a thing exists, you can effectively study it in a small population of repressed brown people who, tired of repression and exploitation decided to be totally unfair to you and not give you their blood, by looking at the association of LBP (“little brown people”) markers and the alleles of interest. It does not even matter if many of those marker associations are found in totally non LBP people. They are still associated. Genetic lineages are the thing, not human lineages. Humans are merely reasonable approximations of genes, really. Or at least, you can make a case for the associations and get your research funded and published without asking anybody any permissions for anything, just using giant available genetic databases. OK, so, maybe this is not “any genetic research you want.” But it is without permission!

This all sounds very nefarious but may not be. Or maybe it is. I’ll leave that to the ethicists.

By the way, if you are interesting in a big fight on the Internet about genetic research, ethics, “IRB” permissions, LBP’s and science and so on and so forth, I recommend the following, in the order suggested.

First, read this blog post: Is the Havasupai Indian Case a Fairy Tale? by Ricki Lewis (and if you have time, along with it, this related blog post)

DON’T READ THE COMMENTS YET

Then, read this blog post: The Empire Strikes Back by Jonathan Marks

Then, go back to the first blog post (Is the Havasupai Indian Case a Fairy Tale?) and read the comments.

Then, report back here and tell me what you think. Especially about that last comment on the PLOS blog post.

Have a nice evening!


Photo Credit: tapasparida via Compfight cc

The Unending Kwok

I thought I was being a nice guy by not blocking John Kwok the moment he tried to friend me on Facebook. But that was a mistake.

At first, there was only the occasional strange note from him via Facebook “email.” But then, several hours ago, the dam broke and the Kwok just poured in. The following “conversation” is probably not work safe, and do make sure you are not drinking coffee while you read it. If you dare. And have a lot of free time.

KwokNeverending

He stopped as soon as I mentioned my friend in the CIA. Figures.

One final word on this subject, courtesy of my friend PZ Myers:

For those who can not read that graphic, here is a transcript:

John Kwok
Am relieved you haven’t commented yet on the probable legal fortunes of your friend in Morris, MN. I wouldn’t bet on him getting away with this nonsense this time, not least because the person he has accused is far more credible than he has ever been. Should he lose maybe he might consider seppuku with a rusty knife.

2:45pm
Greg Laden
That comment was out of line. I recommend you shut up staring right now.

2:48pm
John Kwok
No, I don’t think so not least because you had aided and abetted that silly cracker stunt. He “graduated” from that to attack a lot of credible people, including the likes of Chris Mooney, Sheril Kirshenbaum, Michael De Dora, Nick Matzke, and now Michael Shermer. If he had proof with regards to Shermer, he should have had it brought to the police, not by writing such a venomous blog replete in statements that can be deemed as constituting libel.

2:49pm
John Kwok
I was joking about the Leica M rangefinder camera demand which he and his fans still obsess about, but if he loses to Sherrmer – and I think he will – then he will owe me that camera.

2:50pm
Greg Laden
I distinctly remember telling you to shut up a few minutes ago. Shut up, John.

2:52pm
John Kwok
No I won’t Greg. I’ll be one of many who will relish watching him get what he deserves from Shermer and his attorneys. As someone else told me, he’s a sick little man. Someone else asked me if he was crazy and I said he’s certified.

2:52pm
Greg Laden
Perhaps I should rephrase this. Stop sending me Facebook messages. Stop doing that this very second. Not one more message from you. Stop now.

2:53pm
John Kwok
Myers is a nobody, a narcissistic blowhard with delusions of grandeur who will be getting his just desserts. That’s it Greg. Not a further word from me.

2:54pm
Greg Laden
OMG I can’t believe you sent me another Facebook message.

2:56pm
John Kwok
OMG I can’t believe you answered it. Let’s face it. Shermer has been around the block much longer than Myers and was a friend of Gould and, I believe, Sagan too. In the court of public credibility that counts a lot more than silly wafer stunts or claiming that Kwok wants a Leica rangefinder camera from me.

2:58pm
Greg Laden
John, stop.

3:00pm
John Kwok
Greg, you stop. Compared to your goddamned friend, Shermer is a saint. I’ve been in touch with some very credible leaders in the secular humanist and atheist movements who look forward to seeing Myers getting what he deserves from Shermer. IMHO it’s long overdue too.
Today

12:08am
Greg Laden
Shut. Up.
Today

7:43am
John Kwok
I’ll have the last word here. I didn’t know Dawkins had disowned your pal Hagar the Horrible a few years ago. That’s great news. Hopefully everyone else who is player in secular humanism and atheism will recognize your friend for the malignancy he is and give him his just do.

8:21am
John Kwok
Actually, I’ll let Massimo Pigliucci have the last word here:
http://rationallyspeaking.blogspot.com/2013/05/pz-myers-quits-skeptic-movement-should.html
I’ve discussed your buddy with him in the past, though not in person. We’ve had far more important things to talk about than your pal’s juvenile insolence bordering on psychosis.
This attachment may have been removed or the person who shared it may not have permission to share it with you.

8:36am
Greg Laden
John, stop with this nonsense.
Today

12:57pm
John Kwok
You should have told PZ that after the wafer incident. Instead he boldly goes on committing more insane acts in the cause of both skepticism and atheism. No wonder why he’s still obsessed with my threat that he should give me a Leica M7 rangefinder camera – not really him, but Dembski is the one who should give me one – and so too are his fans. They all need to pay a visit to Bellevue here in NYC, though I am sure there are suitable mental health facilities for them to attend to their needs. IMHO the best thing to happen to PZ would be getting financially knocked out by Shermer and his LA-based legal eagles. I’ll be watching with ample expectations. This should be fine for PZ since he prides himself on being a student of gladiatorial combat. (Not to mention his own Norse heritage.)

1:05pm
John Kwok
And as for nonsense, Greg, I think people recognize who is the one spouting nonsense, which is why “The Happy Atheist” isn’t selling all that well over at Amazon. Don’t worry, I won’t read it nor will I review it at Amazon or GOODREADS. I have to catch up with reading John Crowley, Kim Stanley Robinson (I heard both at a talk they gave at MOMA/PS 1), my friend Gary Shteyngart’s debut novel, etc. etc.

1:15pm
John Kwok
Speaking of “The Happy Atheist”, I think it says a lot when there isn’t a favorable blurb from Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett or Lawrence Krauss. It tells me right there that PZ has marginalized himself, and that’s a great step forward for both skepticism and atheism.

1:53pm
Greg Laden
I wish you would stop bothering me.

1:57pm
John Kwok
I wish you would stop answering me. How’s that? Meanwhile I am looking forward to the legal fireworks.

2:05pm
Greg Laden
Really, John, you need to leave me alone

2:07pm
John Kwok
Please don’t write to me after this. I thank you in advance for your cooperation Greg.

2:08pm
Greg Laden
OMG, shut up.

2:09pm
John Kwok
OMG why don’t you shut up? I’m going to say it again. Please don’t write to me after this. I thank you in advance for your cooperation Greg.

2:10pm
Greg Laden
John, I’m not reading any of the notes you send me, so you might as well not even bother. Just stop.

2:12pm
John Kwok
Greg, if I get a message from you, I’m writing back. JUST. STOP. NOW. PLEASE.

2:12pm
Greg Laden
Wut? I insist that you stop filling my inbox with your drek. Immediately.

2:13pm
John Kwok
WTF. I insist you stop filling my inbox with your drek. IMMEDIATELY! Now I asked you politely. Don’t write back please.

2:14pm
Greg Laden
stop copying me

2:14pm
John Kwok
Stop writing to me and I’ll stop copying you. You’re as bad as Paul Zachary.

2:15pm
Greg Laden
Thank you for not copying me. Now stop emailing me.

2:16pm
John Kwok
I think Al Stefanelli has a similar view of you. You can ask him. Now will you please stop writing back. Thank you.

2:16pm
Greg Laden
I’m dialing 9-1-1 now.

2:17pm
John Kwok
Too late, I’ve reported you to the FBI. I know someone who knows Holder, who is a fellow Stuyvesant HS alumnus.

2:27pm
Greg Laden
No you don’t

2:28pm
John Kwok
How would you know? You haven’t been active in Stuyvesant HS alumni affairs. I have. Now just shut up and leave me alone please.

2:29pm
Greg Laden
Stop lying to me and shut up.

2:30pm
John Kwok
That’s advice I throw back to you. I’ve been active in Stuyvesant HS alumni affairs and I know people who know Holder.

2:32pm
Greg Laden
I hung out in the same bar as Obama in graduate school.

2:34pm
John Kwok
Who gives a Fuck. I’ve been volunteering each year, starting in 2009 at the World Science Festival in part because I had overlapped with Brian Greene in high school.

2:35pm
Greg Laden
I went to high school with the guy who invented Flash.

2:36pm
John Kwok
You and PZ really deserve each other. Told bad Shermer didn’t go after you too. Now will you please stop. Thank you. I thought you were once sensible when we had discussed Peter Williamson a few years ago. I know I am talking to Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
Damn, I have to add this as an addendum:
Too bad Shermer didn’t go after you too.
Don’t reply to this. Just go away please now.

2:53pm
Greg Laden
You’re the one sending me Facebook messages, John. And I’ve asked you to stop numerous times. I’m asking you again now, stop. I know a guy who works for the CIA.

Climate Change = Extreme Weather = More Climate Change

The last several decades of climate change, and climate change research, have indicated and repeatedly confirmed a rather depressing reality. When something changes in the earth’s climate system, it is possible that a negative feedback will result, in which climate change is attenuated. I.e., more CO2 could cause more plant growth, the plants “eat” the CO2, so a negative feedback reduces atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas bringing everything back to normal. Or, when something changes in the earth’s climate system, we could get a positive feedback, where change in one direction (warming) causes more change in that direction. A developing and alarming example of this would be warming in the arctic causing less summer sea ice in the arctic which warms the arctic which causes less sea ice, etc. etc., with numerous widespread and dramatic effects on climate and weather.

ResearchBlogging.orgOver these decades of observation and research, we’ve discovered that negative feedbacks are rare, and when they occur, the are feeble. Yes, some plants do eat some of that extra CO2, bur hardly any. This makes sense. Adding antelopes to the savanna might cause there to be more lions to some extent, but the cap on lion density is not antelopes … it is other lions, staking out territories. After the first few dozen antelopes all you get is a lot of antelopes. Biological systems tend to optimize within some range. Plants can’t really be expected to use more water, more CO2, more other nutrients, just because they are there, beyond some range that they typically use in nature.

Well, we have a new positive feedback: Weather Weirding caused by climate change causes more climate change. Here’s how it works.

First, we warm the arctic. This causes the gradient of warm tropical air to cooler temperate and arctic air to reduce. The gradient causes atmospheric systems that include jet streams to form, but with a reduced gradient, the jet streams change their behavior. When the gradient is low enough (as it is now most of the time) the polar jet stream shifts from being a more or less simple circle around the earth to a very wavy circle, and the jet stream itself moves more slowly. For reasons that have to do with the math of the atmosphere, when the waviness reaches a certain point the waves themselves tend to stop moving, or move only slowly. So the jet stream is moving through these waves, but the position of the waves remains stable for days and days on end.

Where the wave dips towards the equator, an low pressure system forms in the “elbow” of the wave and sits there for days on end, causing cool conditions and a lot of precipitation. Flooding ensues. Where the wave dips up towards the pole, a high pressure system forms in the inverted elbow of the jet stream. This brings warm air north and that air tends to be dry (depending on where it is). This results in heat waves and drought conditions. The reality is more complex that I’ve indicated here, but you get the picture. Weather extremes of both cold and heat occur, and weather extremes of both wet and dry occur.

(For more information on these phenomena see: Why are we having such bad weather?, Linking Weather Extremes to Global Warming, and The Ice Cap is Melting and You Can Help.)

And now comes the newly identified “positive” feedback.

The research by scientists at Max Plank is published in nature (see citation below) but summarized on a web page from that institute:

When the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere rises, the Earth not only heats up, but extreme weather events, such as lengthy droughts, heat waves, heavy rain and violent storms, may become more frequent. Whether these extreme climate events result in the release of more CO2 from terrestrial ecosystems and thus reinforce climate change has been one of the major unanswered questions in climate research. It has now been addressed by an international team of researchers working with Markus Reichstein, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena. They have discovered that terrestrial ecosystems absorb approximately 11 billion tons less carbon dioxide every year as the result of the extreme climate events than they could if the events did not occur. That is equivalent to approximately a third of global CO2 emissions per year….that the consequences of weather extremes can be far-reaching. “As extreme climate events reduce the amount of carbon that the terrestrial ecosystems absorb and the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere therefore continues to increase, more extreme weather could result,” explains Markus Reichstein. “It would be a self-reinforcing effect.”

In particular drought (caused by extremes of heat long term, and lack of rainfall) cause plants to absorb less CO2. Heavy precipitation increases the flow of water containing carbonate holding materials into bodies of water where the CO2 out-gasses.

I would add to this the relationship between drought, fire, and dark snow in Greenland.

Climate change causes extreme weather which causes more of the same sort of climate change.

Bobby Magill also discusses this here: Can Extreme Weather Make Climate Change Worse?


Reichstein, Markus, Bahn, Michael, Ciais, Phillipe, & Et Al (2013). Climate extremes and the carbon cycle Nature DOI: 10.1038/nature12350

The Case for Vegan Hot Dogs

If you are a meat eater, you probably appreciate the texture and flavor of a nice piece of loin, or a properly cooked pork chop, or a chicken breast that is moist and flavorful. But what is it about hot dogs that you appreciate? The pasty enigmatic texture? The idea that the casing either is, or imitates, the intestines of a pig? The possibility that the ‘meat’ inside the thing includes a high proportion of anus tissue, other bits of skin that were unsuitable for use as leather (i.e., nostrils), nerve tissue, and other non-muscle parts of animals, often of unspecified species?

Let me put that another way. Say you order a nice steak at your favorite restaurant, but when it was served to your table, instead of a New York Strip or a Filet Mignon you were given an equivalent amount of whatever a hot dog may include. It would probably be served in a bowl because hot dogs are mainly water. Floating in the water would be nerve tissue, cow anuses, sinus tissues, chicken eyelids, maybe an eyeball. If it was an “all beef” version these would all be cow parts. If not, it might be a mixture of cow, pig, turkey, and chicken. But really, nobody ever said that a non-beef hot dog only includes those animals. Goats, sheep, horses, and really, mammals and birds in general all have nerve tissue and anuses. Bon appetite!

Clearly, the role of a hot dog is not to provide or even enhance the meat eating experience. So, I ask you, what is the purpose of the widely consumed tube-steak?

I submit that the role of the hotdog is to provide a substrate for mustard and relish. Or, ketchup. Meat purists may eat their meat plain, or with minimal condiment. Other than certain young children or dogs, have you ever really met a “hot dog purist” who eats the hot dog without anything on it? In fact, studies would show (if they existed) that there is a correlation between the degree to which an individual self identifies as a hot-dog lover and how much stuff an individual piles on top of the hot dog, both in terms of diversity (how many different things) and amount (how high the pile gets).

As with many things, the importance of the hot dog is found in the context, not the thing itself. The role of the hotdog is the roll. And the condiments, including for some kraut or beans.

Now, consider the following facts.

<ul>
  • 1) For most Westerners, reducing the amount of meat in the diet would provide a health benefit.
  • <li>2) In the United States and parts of Europe, the efficiency of our agricultural system, in terms of energy in the field transformed to energy on the dinner plate, is abysmally low.  Something like 30-40% of our "field calories" reach the table.  The reason for this is that so much of those field calories are first converted into meat.</li>
    
    <li>3) The global food supply and the world's increasing population are expected, according to recent and reliable studies, to reach equilibrium in about 2050.  After that we start to starve en masse, I suppose.</li>
    
    <li>4) The production of food generally is a large contributor to climate change, and the production of meat in particular is a very large contributor to climate change.</li>
    
    <li>5) Anuses.  Cow, pig, sheep, goat, unknown.  In your hot dog.</li></ul>
    

    Meat in hot dogs is not really meat, if you are a meat eater. It is not what you would eat were it not turned into something you don’t recognize. Meat in hot dogs is bad for you and bad for the planet simply because it is meat. Meat in hot dogs does not produce culinary pleasure, especially when you think about it. A hot dog made with no meat but that still had the undistinguished mushy internal texture, with a burnable plastic like exterior, would serve just as well to hold the condiments. Such a meat-free hot dog would still serve a roll. As it were.

    Americans probably eat about 700 million pounds of hot dogs a year, according to the American Meat Institute. (Not per person, but rather, in total.) That’s close to 2.3 pounds per person a year. Th average American eats about 180 pounds of land-animal meat in total per year. So, about 1-2% of our meat diets consist of hot dog. (I’m purposefully leaving fish and other wild animals out of this.)

    If all hot dogs were suddenly meatless, there would be no loss at the consumer end, only gains. We would still have the tube-shaped object to coat in corn and deep fry, put in a roll and cover with condiments, slice into barrel-shaped bits and pierce with uncooked linguini to boil later to make a festive meal of mini Cthulhus, and so on. But we would improve the quality of our own diets by an average of 1-2% with respect to meat consumption. Since there are a lot of people who eat no meat, and a lot of people who only rarely eat hot dogs, this probably translates into a much larger change for the hot-doggiest amongst us. The American Meat Institute estimates that close to half of American hot dog consumption occurs at outdoor events, mainly sporting events. We buy, at the grocery store, 350 million pounds a year of hot dog, and we eat at events the same amount again. This tells me that a very small subset of Americans, those who go to a lot of sporting events, then while there, consume a few hot dogs every time, are eating a very large percentage of the dogs. I’d wager that the most hot-dog loving third of those who eat hot dogs would reduce meat consumption in their diets by double digits if all hot dogs were suddenly Vegan.

    Also, while as a specialty product (that you can’t find in most grocery stores, sadly) Vegan hot dogs are not especially cheap. But imagine the potential savings. If, instead of making hot dogs out of nerve tissue, anuses, and noses of animals, hot dogs were made out of the equivalent parts of plants … whatever that might be … they would be dirt cheap. Maybe the use of dirt there is a poor choice. Anyway, they would be cheaper than meat-ish hot dogs. Cheaper hot dogs would sell.

    And that is the case for Vegan hot dogs.


    Sources of information:

    <li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2013/08/01/the-problem-with-the-global-food-supply-new-research/">The Problem With The Global Food Supply: New Research</a></li>
    
    <li><a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/seriouslyscience/?p=785#.Ug-rZ2TXikI">Ever wanted to know what’s really in hotdogs?</a></li>
    <li><a href="http://www1.umn.edu/news/features/2013/UR_CONTENT_430583.html">Can we feed the world?</a></li>
    <li><a href="http://www.inspirationgreen.com/food-consumption-in-america.html">The American Diet!</a></li>
    <li><a href="http://www.food.com/recipe/hot-dog-spaghetti-445667">Hot Dog Spaghetti</a></li>
    <li><a href="http://www.hot-dog.org/ht/d/sp/i/38599/pid/38599">American Meat Council</a></li>
    

    Appendix

    For completeness, I’ll note that the American Meat Institute claims this about hot dog ingredients:

    What exactly is in a hot dog?

    The ingredients in hot dogs have been the subject of much humor, rumor and speculation. But the answer is less exciting than the question.

    All hot dogs are cured and cooked sausages that consist of mainly pork, beef, chicken and turkey or a combination of meat and poultry. Meats used in hot dogs come from the muscle of the animal and looks much like what you buy in the grocer’s case. Other ingredients include water, curing agents and spices, such as garlic, salt, sugar, ground mustard, nutmeg, coriander and white pepper.

    If variety meats such as liver and hearts are used in processed meats, the U.S. Department of Agriculture requires the manufacturer to declare those ingredients on the package with the statement “with variety meats” or “with meat by-products.” The manufacturer must then specify which variety meat is included. In the U.S., companies are required to list ingredients in order, from the main ingredient, to the least ingredient.

    But science says something a bit different. Here’s the results of one study looking inside the dog:

    …Package labels typically list some type of meat as the primary ingredient. … A variety of tissues were observed besides skeletal muscle including bone (n = 8), collagen (n = 8), blood vessels (n = 8), plant material (n = 8), peripheral nerve (n = 7), adipose (n = 5), cartilage (n = 4), and skin (n = 1). … Electron microscopy showed recognizable skeletal muscle with evidence of degenerative changes. In conclusion, hotdog ingredient labels are misleading; most brands are more than 50% water by weight. The amount of meat (skeletal muscle) in most brands comprised less than 10% of the cross-sectional surface area. More expensive brands generally had more meat. All hotdogs contained other tissue types (bone and cartilage) not related to skeletal muscle; brain tissue was not present.

    Harry Potter Goblet of Fire Plot Hole Filled

    I recently discovered that there is a widespread belief that there is a huge, gaping, plot hole in Harry Potter Goblet of Fire by J.K. Rowlings. Or so people say. Greta Christina pointed it out on a Facebook post of Sarah Moglia’s, and when I googled it, I discovered widespread dismay about the pointlessness of the entire book.

    The claim is made that there is no reason for any of the things that happen in this book to have happened. The ultimate result of most of the book’s plot is to get Harry Potter transported to the clutches of the Dark Lord in order to contribute, as an ingredient, in the ontogeny of Voldemort 2.0. The question is, why did all this stuff have to happen, with Barty Crouch Junior disguised as Mad Eye Moody manipulating the entire tournament, only to have Harry Potter touch a live and active portkey? Why not just hand him a portkey, or trick him into touching one?

    Some people in responding to this question have noted two things that are worthy of mention, though they are not the answer to this mystery. One is the fact, which I’m sure is true, that Barty Crouch Jr. could not be discovered for what he really was, so an indirect means of doing anything is preferred. Handing Harry a portkey may have been too easily figured out. But really, en entire Triwizard just for that? Clearly, that is not the simple answer to the plot hole question, though it is part of it. No matter what Barty was doing, he’d want a certain amount of misdirection and secrecy.

    The other thing people mention is the timing. The hot dish wasn’t ready, as it were, until a certain time and that time happened to be at the end of the Triwizard. That may be true, but it does not de-Macguffinize the entire book.

    Perhaps this is because of my background in anthropology, but when I first read the book the point of the plot was utterly obvious to me once the penultimate scene developed (after Potter’s transport to where all the death eaters are). The simple, straight forward reason for having Potter transported at that time and in that way is the same for faking Potter’s entrance into the tournament and having him win. I shall explain.

    Harry’s blood was to be used to reconstitute Voldemort. Quite possibly the blood of any wizard would do, but there is a handful of reasons that Harry Potter’s blood would be better. For one thing, there is the accidental horcrux-ish effect, with Voldemort’s power having bounced off Harry’s Head once. Whether or not that would really make Harry a more powerful ingredient is unclear, but these are Wizards. They believe this sort of thing. Second, Harry’s mother (and her love, bla bla bla) was obviously very powerful and was inserted into Harry on her death. More mojo. Generally, though, it is pretty clear by the big battle scene in Goblet, with the dueling wands, that Potter and Voldemort are roughly equally matched. Any wizard might do as this particular ingredient in the reconstitution of Voldemort 2.0, but Harry would be better …

    … and even better, would be super-Harry.

    The winner of the Triwizard is not just any wizard, but is special, esteemed, more powerful and more highly regarded in the Wizard world. When I discussed this with Julia she pointed out that Harry’s being in the tournament and his success along the way allowing him to win were all rigged. So, not meaningful.

    Muggles.

    First of all, in Wizard Land, technicalities are always important. LeviOHsa, not LeVIohsa. He won the tournament and gets whatever that gives you. Second, Harry Potter’s status as the youngest Tri-champ ever is reified only in the eyes of the non-Death Eater wizards, and they were unaware of the rigged nature of the deal. Third … think about it … what, ever, does a Dark Lord do that is not rigged in some way? It is the way of He Who Shall Not be Named.

    Heroes become heroes by winning a series of challenges. Seven, classically. What were the challenges that Harry had won before the Triwizard started? Near the beginning of his life, he defeats Voldemort. In Philsopher’s Stone, Harry defeats Voldemort/Quirrell. In Chamber he defeats the Basilisk. In Prisoner he defeats the Dementors. So, at the beginning of Goblet of Fire, Harry has defeated four foes in four challenges. Since heroes normally defeat seven foes in seven challenges before becoming full blown heroes, three more challenges would make him in some ways the most powerful wizard he could possibly be, yet at the same time, those additional victories would not be against Voldemort, if Voldemort rigged them. The blood of a full blown hero would be significantly better than the blood of a mere prodigy, and this was a way for Voldemort to get that extra potent ingredient more or less safely.

    Endoplasmic Voldemort engineered Harry Potter’s rise to hero status among his peers in order to have the most powerful possible ingredients in the Voldemort 2.0 hot dish. There is no plot hole. Only unmitigated evil.

    So, fear not, you did not read Goblet of Fire needlessly. Perhaps you merely enjoyed the story and missed the point, but that’s no big deal. People have been doing that for thousands of years.


    Other posts of interest:

    Also of interest: In Search of Sungudogo: A novel of adventure and mystery, which is also an alternative history of the Skeptics Movement.

    Fukushima Update

    Patrick J. Kiger at National Geographic News has an excellent summary of the current situation at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The plant continues to leak radioactive material into the sea, though at a rate much lower than the massive release that happened at the time of the accident. Strontium-90 (Half-life 28.79 years) has increased in proportion over various Cesium isotopes. This is a concern because while Cesium has the potential to enter the food supply in fish that pick it up, Strontium enters the food supply in a different way. In theory Cesium enters tissues and leaves tissues, and doesn’t accumulate over time. (I quickly add that there is evidence of Cesium accumulation in the fish food chain, so that may not be entirely true; certainly, tough, Cesium does not accumulate in large amounts). Strontium, on the other hand, substitutes for minerals in bone, and thus accumulated as a fish ages. Taking fish from contaminated waters for human consumption has mostly been banned since the accident (there are a few species of marine organism that have stopped showing detectable levels of radioactive isotopes, so they are now being caught).

    The overall expected health risks of the Fukushima disaster overall and continued health risks because of the ongoing leakage are hard to estimate. There is almost certainly an elevated cancer risk for people living in the area, though the extent of this is unknown. Concerns that we see around the Internet that dangerous levels of radiation are reaching the US are incorrect.

    Having said that, I think people often evaluate the significance of the Fukushima disaster incorrectly, for political reasons. Those who want to claim that nuclear power (including existing old-generation nuclear plants) is just honkey-dory seem to do so by feeding off of anti-nuke misconceptions and irrational fears about radiation. Yes, people do get it wrong; the average person has no clue what risks radioactive materials or radiation pose. For this reason, it is easy to creates straw men and then disprove them. The fact that the region around Fukushima is not littered with skeletons of people who were zapped into oblivion by the Fukushima multiple meltdowns, or that all babies in Japan are born with only one head and ten fingers, does not mean that nothing happened there. The fact is that you can’t go near this power plant without taking a serious health risk, and there is a moderate but real health risk because of the prior large scale dispersal of radioactive material and the ongoing lower level but still important outpouring (literally) of radioisotopes.

    If we were to propose the construction of 22 nuclear power plants and noted that over a 30 year period one of them would suffer multiple meltdowns, spew enormous amounts of nuclear icky stuff into the air and sea, continued to spread contaminated water into the sea and groundwater for years after at a lower rate, create a very expensive problem that would last for decades and create a deadly no-entry zone filled with millions and millions of gallons of radioactive water and piles of nuclear material in the disabled reactors and spent fuel pools that could not be cleaned up for decades in a zone susceptible to serious earthquakes and tsunamis … the designers of that system might well be asked to go back to the drawing board or seek other alternatives. (Japan has about 22 plants operated over about 30 years, give or take.)

    In fact, they were. They were asked to not do what they did, but those who opposed nuclear plants in Japan. The specific reasoning of the anti-nuclear activists and others may have included faulty logic and bad information about nuclear power, but on the list of potential problems was the possibility that what actually happened would happen. They were right. And they were not “stopped clock” right. They were right because they saw a real danger that really existed.

    We probably have to build new nuclear power plants. Burning fossil fuels at the rate we are burning them will cause disasters that will make us forget bout our nuclear woes. But it is not true that the nuclear power industry is ready to step in and build significantly safer plants now, and it is not true that “alternative” (a term we should stop using!) energy solutions such as geothermal, solar, wind, and so on deployed on a smart grid with significant enhancements of efficiency at both production and use ends of the grid comprises a secondary solution.

    Anyway, I gave only a short summary of what Kiger outlines in his excellent piece. Go now and read: Fukushima’s Radioactive Water Leak: What You Should Know

    The Recovery of Arctic Sea Ice

    Every northern summer Arctic Sea ice melts away and reforms for winter, but how much melts away seems to be increasing on average, at a rate that surprises climate scientists.

    But there are some who see variation from year to year, and there is variation, in a rather unrealistic way. Here is a graph comparing how climate science denialists view arctic sea ice over time, compare to how “climate realists” (i.e., smart people who can read graphs and such) see it:

    ArcticEscalator2012_med

    Go HERE to see the source and learn more about what is behind this graph.

    Mike Morwood Obit

    You know about the Hobbit. Not The Hobbit (TM) but the hominid from Flores, Indonesia. Mike Morwood was a key investigator in that research (though he did lots of other research as well).

    He was born …

    … in Auckland, New Zealand, studied archaeology at the University of Auckland and gained his PhD at the Australian National University in Canberra. From a position in the Queensland Department of Aboriginal and Islander Advancement – the public service body with responsibility at that time for Aboriginal cultural heritage – he joined the University of New England (UNE), in Armidale, New South Wales, in 1981, and worked there until 2007. Mike then moved to the University of Wollongong, also in New South Wales.

    In his PhD thesis, on the rock art and archaeology of the Carnarvon Ranges in Central Queensland, Mike had pioneered the inclusion of rock art into other archaeological studies, and continued to work on projects which sought such integration until his death. He turned his UNE course on the archaeology of rock art into the book Visions from the Past (2002).

    And there is much more to his bio than that.

    In fact, you can read about the “Archaeologist whose discovery of a ‘Hobbit’ skeleton sparked a controversy over human evolution” in this writeup by Iain Davidson, in The Guardian.

    Things Are Heating Up in the Tropical Atlantic

    There are at present two systems in the Atlantic that have a good chance of producing tropical storms and possibly, eventually, hurricanes. One is east of the Yucatan, the other is very near the coast of West Africa.

    Here’s the report from the National Weather Service. I’ve used a rough routine to convert case so it is not screaming at you (the NWS has not yet implemented the rumored policy of not using ALL CAPS FOR EVERYTHING.

    1. The broad area of low pressure in the northwestern caribbean sea is moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Cloudiness and showers associated with this low continue to show signs of organization…And a tropical depression could form before the disturbance reaches the yucatan peninsula on thursday. After that…This weather system is forecast to move over the gulf of
    mexico…Where upper-level winds will likely be a little less favorable for development. This system has a high chance…60
    percent…Of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours…And a high chance…70 percent…Of becoming a tropical
    cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms…Heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast
    to spread over the yucatan peninsula and belize during the next day or two…And interests in these areas should monitor the progress
    of this disturbance.

    2. Cloudiness and showers associated with a low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the cape verde islands
    remain well organized…And a tropical depression could form later today or on thursday. This system has a high chance…70
    percent…Of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. After that…The low will be moving into a less favorable
    environment for development. This system has a high chance…80 percent…Of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.
    Regardless of additional development…This system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to the southern cape verde islands
    later today and thursday as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Interests in these islands should monitor the progress of this
    system.