Category Archives: Uncategorized

Rate of mass shootings has tripled in three years

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The frequency with which shooting events in the US occurs has gone way up in the last few years, according to recent research. Amy Cohen, Deborah Azarael and Mathew Miller have an article at Mother Jones reviewing the research: Rate of Mass Shootings Has Tripled Since 2011, Harvard Research Shows…And: Why claims in the media that mass shootings aren’t increasing are wrong.

I find the graphic they used a bit odd:

shootingsSince2011-mfms11 (1)

The overall form of the graph shows a decrease over time. But it really shows an increase. You just have to know how to read it. The Y axis is the number of days since the last shooting, which as we can see is very high for several shootings before about 2011, but very low after. But, once you do understand the graph it makes the point very clearly. Notice that there are several time periods prior to 2011 which also have low numbers (meaning more shooting events) but those periods are never very long. There seems to be a dramatic and sustained increase in rate of shootings.

The authors explain it this way:

As the chart above shows, a public mass shooting occurred on average every 172 days since 1982. The orange reference line depicts this average; data points below the orange line indicate shorter intervals between incidents, i.e., mass shootings occurring at a faster pace. Since September 6, 2011, there have been 14 public mass shootings at an average interval of less than 172 days. A run of nine points or more below the orange average line is considered a statistical signal that the underlying process has changed. …The standard interpretation of this chart would be that mass shootings, as of September 2011, are now part of a new, accelerated, process.


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Kansas Governor’s Race and Clean Energy

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Climate change and clean energy seem to be playing a role in the Kansas Governor’s race. Ari Phillips at ThinkProgress has a post on the race. The issue is preservation vs. abrogation of the Kansas Renewable Portfolio Standard, a state law that requires a certain amount of Kansas energy to be “renewable.” The Koch’s have spent considerable effort and money to have the law repealed. Democratic candidate Paul Davis says he will veto any effort to repeal the law. Brownback formerly supported the law but his support apparently has shifted under the Pressure that Refreshes (Koch).

Davis said the RPS repeal is being championed by a very narrow group of far right special interests with heavy investments in the oil industry. He said this is despite the fact that the policy remains incredibly popular among everyday Kansans and public and private sector leaders who understand the importance of diversifying the state’s energy portfolio. In fact, Kansas’ RPS — which requires investor-owned utilities to get 20 percent of their power from renewable sources by 2020 — is almost entirely fulfilled several years ahead of schedule.

“Frankly, the RPS has become controversial because those who want to repeal the RPS have poured millions into Sam Brownback’s re-election campaign, which has caused him to suddenly change his position,” said Davis.

Phillips points out an interesting irony. Kansas, the state, is named after a Native American tribe whose name translates roughly as “People of the Wind.” And, we all know about the famous Tornadoes in Kansas that are capable of whisking a young girls and their dogs to far away lands!

See Phillips post for a lot more information on the popular and business based support of the renewable energy law that the GOP is now being paid to get rid of.

Checking Real Clear Politics, the race is at present close, following a period of wild swings in polling results:

Kansas_Governor_Davis_Brownback_Polls

Since an earlier attempt to repeal the law failed, the Koch’s have pulled support away from the GOP incumbent. This pattern has apparently played out at the level of state legislative elections as well.

So, we have a business-friendly and popular law, equivocal support or lack thereof by the GOP incumbent, a Democrat who supports the pro-clean energy law running against the incumbent, and a tight election. It may be the case that if Paul Davis wins, it will be an election where Climate Change and Clean Energy mattered.


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Interesting Epigenetics Discussion

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At Science League of America, Stephanie Keep’s blog, “A Wrinkle In (Change Over) Time, Part 1:

…there has recently been a bit of a wrinkle in this core tenet of evolution. It used to be that you could say with confidence that changes brought about by environmental influences over the course of an individual’s lifetime (loss of limb, build-up of muscle mass) are not heritable. But more and more examples of just that—of environmentally affected traits being passed from parent to offspring—have been recently reported in the scientific literature. Earlier this year, for example, Scientific American ran a piece by biologist Michael Skinner that described the phenomena he has studied since 2005. He recounts how mice exposed to a toxin produce male offspring with low sperm count and underdeveloped sex organs. No problem so far, the offspring were developing within the mother’s body and therefore also exposed. But Skinner’s team noted a disproportionate occurrence of these traits in the next two generations. There was no trace of the toxin in…

Screen Shot 2014-10-27 at 7.54.00 PM

Interesting post, and interesting, lively discussion.


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Marked is History

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In the middle of an important project with a deadline. Using BBEdit to write, Marked to check the markdown code.

Suddenly, Marked stops working. In a kinda scary way. Lots of spinning rainbow wheels of death stuff.

Marked recently came up with a new version and they want $9.99 for the upgrade, which provides nothing new for me. So, no.

Why did Marked break? I don’t know. I checked out a few free alternatives then I realized/discovered that BBEdit has the same exact ability built in and it has been there all the time!!!!!1

Appcleaner, meet Marked.


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Arctic Sea Ice Extent

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Arctic Sea Ice extent continues to be a problem. This year, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, ARctic Sea ice reached its lowest extent this year on September 17th, which is about the sixth lowest extent on record, following a multi-year trend of decline. There is variation from year to year. This year’s minimum was almost exactly the same as last years. With the exception of 2001, minimum extent has been below the climatalogical average every year since 1998.

Dana Nuccitelli has a post on this with excellent discussion and some nice graphics, and he has also produced a new version of the animated “How ‘Skeptics’ View Arctic Sea Ice Decline” graphic, which I reproduce here:

ArcticEscalator500


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WordPress 4.0

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Just installed WordPress 4.0.  I’ve never had a WordPress installation or upgrade on this blog go well. This one went fine, no apparent difficulties.  I just pressed the update button and it updated.  I’d been putting it off because my prior experiences had been so bad.

I’m not sure it is working as advertised.  The annoying web editing scrolling fiasco that is WordPress or any browser based editor is still the way it always has been despite the video WordPress shows me when it upgrades saying otherwise. So, I’m not sure what to do about that. But, it did not break, so that’s good.

Here’s the video on WordPress 4.0:

 


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Ingredients of the all natural banana

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I have mixed feelings about this. It could be a snobby chemist being all “without chemicals life itself would be impossible” and at the same time disrespecting the general public’s desire to have labels on the crap they sell us in stores, or it could be an honest and fun attempt to actually point out the chemicals in a banana (and other fruit). The guy’s site is generally pretty good though, lots of resources for teachers. Just gotta keep an eye on those chemists. If you know what I mean.

(I know, the pineapple is depicted, not the banana. Just go see the site you’ll understand.)


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A glornififoov asks about planetary extinction.

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“It’s called the Mars Rule.”

“Mars?”

“Yes, Mars. After the planet. Earthlings. Earth is a planet orbiting Sol A2234-332N. Dead planet now but that is where Earthlings are from. Mars is next to Earth.”

“A moon?”

“No, a planet, next orbit over. Can’t remember if it is closer or farther from its Sol. Anyway, doesn’t matter. Earthlings visited Mars and after about 20 years of poking around discovered that full blown life had evolved there and gone extinct. Aeons earlier.”

“So the Mars Rule is planetary extinction? It thought that was called the Koch Effect.”

“Ha. Funny you should say that, because Koch Syndrome, not ‘effect,’ you had that wrong. Koch syndrome was also named by Earthlings. And it is related.”

“Ah, right, I remember that now. Koch Effect.”

“Right. But the Mars Rule is different. Mars is smaller than Earth. According to the Mars Rule the total time frame from the origin of a planet to the appearance of life to the eventual extinction of life and the destruction of a life supporting planetary surface is faster on small planets than on large planets.”

“Really? Didn’t Sydour 7 snuff out before Skydour 9, and it’s bigger?”

“Right, it did. But this a rule, not a law. Lots of exceptions. But it tends to work all else being equal, which as you know, is not all the time.”

“Let me think. Smaller planet cools first, then has smaller surface area, so chemical evolution is faster.”

“A little, but only a little. It’s more the biochemical evolution. Right about the cooling, though. Turns out, most lifestarts kill each other off. It’s counterintuitive. More lifestarts — more primordial puddles if you will — you would think that would hasten the development of life, but most of the time some of the life forms ruin the biochemistry for the others, and eventually themselves.”

“Ah, right, but if there is only one primordial puddle, it gets to cycle from lifestart to extinction fast.”

“Yes, within a few klakons, a tiny fraction of the total lifespan of a planet, on a small planet like Mars.”

“Right, then the experiment starts again right away, less residual biochemical suppression.”

“Yes, that’s the start of the cycle, why a small planet — all else being equal of course — will go from no life to life, and go through the first few typical stages…”

“I remember! Colonial forms, multicellular, specialized, motile, informational, predator-prey, behavioral web, quasi-intelligent, Koch Effect.”

“Mostly right. You’re pretty smart for an Eetweeb. Informational comes after predator-prey…”

“Ah, right, mixed that up…”

And the small size only speeds up the start of the process. The middle part goes fast on any size planet once multicellular happens. Depends on extinction events.”

“Right, extinction events, that would slow it down…”

“OK, may be not so smart for an Eetweeb. Extinction events speed it up once there’s multicellular, as long as their magnitude is below the cube root of planetary mass rule. But that’s getting into esoteric details.”

“I guess that makes sense.”

“Yes. Yes it does. But then the last part of the cycle runs faster simply because the planet is smaller. Quasi intelligence builds technology webs sooner on smaller planets, and when the Koch Effect swings into play, smaller plants are simply more vulnerable. Less water, less atmosphere, less buffering.”

“Cool. I always wanted to study Solsystemology, but I didn’t have the math skills.”

“Tectonics, too Larger planets have long lived tectonic moving system. That slows down the process.”

“How does that work?”

“Another time, next time we get together for a blopwut. I’ve got to go now. Time for my exnorphilation.”

“OK, professor, thanks for your time. See you in class tomorrow.”

“Sure thing. Stop by for office hours whenever you want. Nobody ever does, always a refreshing change to whatchawhacha with a glornififoov.”

“Cheers.”

“Glopfdorp.”


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