“How Civil Wars Start* and how to stop them” is a new book by Barbara Walter. Not Barbara Walters, Barbara Walter.
I quote from recent WaPo article:
“[There is a] scale that goes from negative 10 to positive 10. Negative 10 is the most authoritarian, so think about North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain. Positive 10 are the most democratic. This, of course, is where you want to be. This would be Denmark, Switzerland, Canada. The U.S. was a positive 10 for many, many years. It’s no longer a positive 10. And then it has this middle zone between positive 5 and negative 5, which was you had features of both. … scholars found was that this …variable was really predictive of a risk for civil war. That full democracies almost never have civil wars. Full autocracies rarely have civil wars. All of the instability and violence is happening in this middle zone. “
The US is in or near the middle zone.
This idea makes a lot of sense. This appears to be a must read book.
Have you read the breakthrough novel of the year? When you are done with that, try:
or Paperback
*Please note:
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The book, published January 2022 by Crown, has a customer rating of 4.5 on Amazon (1,042 ratings.) There are, of course, the usual denigrators calling it “slanted” and “socialist” and suchlike drivel.
She is also the author of Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars (PUP, 2002) — among other books.
I’d also like to put in a good word for Barbara Walters (aka “Baba Wawa” after she overcame her speech impediment), whose career in journalism spans 64 years.
I am skeptical about civil war. Most families have conservatives and liberals. Who is going to war with their own family? Not me.
I can see a state or two secede from the union. Would we fight to stop that? Not me – I say let them secede.
So who would we fight against? What are we fighting over?
Would Minnesota mount an army to fight California if they wanted to secede? How about Texas? I am not sure we care enough about either state to go to war to keep them in the USA.
I do think it is hard to be pro civil war and against the 2nd amendment. Either way – if you see civil war coming – you want to be well armed. Right?
Clearly that bubble you inhabit shields you from the realities of history. Reading histories of the first US Civil War (e.g. McPherson), first because it clearly isn’t going to be the last, will set you right.
Families split by ideological differences is not restricted to that conflict it being a feature of conflicts from the American War of Independence and many conflicts in the subcontinent of India across centuries. These but a few examples.
I think the U. S. is well on the way to becoming a DINO (Democracy in name only). Since the McConnell years have already shown that the Senate can be hamstrung by a minority party and the Trump Presidency has shown that the supposed checks and balances in our government depend on widely shared agreement rather than enforceable laws and are relatively easily foiled by persons’ loyalty to party or a to the leader of a personality cult) along with a surfeit of power lust and a lack of ethics.
Recent events have shown the American public that the majority of Americans’ views amount to nothing compared to the views of fervent minorities (pro-gun, pro-forced birth, the very rich, corporations). Most recently, the Supreme Court decision reversing Roe v Wade (made possible by “justices” who lied during their Senate confirmation hearings about Roe v Wade being “settled law”) has removed a Constitutional right for women in many states and has put the nation on notice that they cannot take the protection of the Constitution for granted anymore. There have been ominous threats from the SCOTUS that there are still more rights on the chopping block.
Add this to the fact that states with Republican-controlled legislatures (1) have gerrymandered districts and enacted various laws restricting voting in a variety of ways that unequally hinder people likely to vote for Democratic candidates, and (2) have shifted power over elections and determination of election results to themselves.
Add also that many Republicans running for office in many states are still affirming the Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump by massive voter fraud and are pledging to take steps to remove the (imaginary) threat of (imaginary) widespread voter fraud.
We have a Republican Party which has consistently sided with, protected, and enabled a malignant, lying, moronic grifter who admires (and has done favors for) Vladimir Putin and other dictators, considers the U. S. Constitution “just words,” and is responsible for the current super-majority of Supreme Court justices. He may run for president in 2024 if our justice system is unable to lock him up.
If it turns out that the Republicans manage to become the ruling party in the House of Representatives in the 2022 elections or the Presidency in 2024, the majority of Americans may find themselves with no peaceful way to escape minority rule and may sooner or later turn to insurrection. (Apparently the current Republican Party thinks that they are the only party with a base willing to actually fight.)
Well, in the last 1.5 days, every Republican in Congress voted “No” on
– weeding neo-nazis (admittedly, they are the current core of the party) out of the military
– providing benefits to military veterans who had been exposed to and had problems from toxic substances
– setting up an Amber Alert style warning system for mass shootings
rickA’s nazi-loving friends don’t need a civil war to ruin the country: they can do it from the inside, with the help of a supreme court and their judges who are just fine with being activists and ignoring what they previously claimed was established law. Bigots like rickA are no doubt thrilled that racism, bigoty, and discrimination are now acceptable, even admirable, traits in the republican mind.
I can’t help mentioning that RickA’s previous contention that “If it was an insurrection, why weren’t they armed?” has been effectively countered by the facts brought to light during the House of Representatives’ Jan, 6th committee investigation.
Fact 1: Many weapons of various kinds were found on people going through the metal detectors at the Jan. 6th Trump requested rally that preceded the insurrection itself.
Fact 2: Many others refused to go through the detectors and stayed outside the Ellipse because they didn’t want their weapons confiscated.
Fact3: Trump wanted the metal detectors removed because “they weren’t a danger to him” and he was concerned that the crowd nearest him was big enough for him.
This is now relevant to the “civil war” topic here because the current Supreme Court majority, like many right-wingers, can’t seem to even imagine any hindrance they consider allowable to gun totin’ (up to and including military grade weapons). Note that we already have trouble with the many armed groups (Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, et al.) who are gleefully waiting for and dreaming about just such a civil war.
Oh yeah, and the idiocy of RickA’s (and many Republicans’) claim that arming teachers is a good idea has been completely discredited by the recent video showing the police sent to the school in Uvalde TX hanging out in the hallway for 77 minutes, apparently with no one in charge, obviously unwilling to go up against an AK-15 despite their shields and weapons. If that’s how they act, what would teachers be able to do when some homicidal wacko is suddenly right there in their classroom, gun blazing ?
Go to school in the U.S.A.; it’s going to be wild!
None of the people legally carrying weapons at the rally tried to bring them into Congress. Not a very effective insurrection if you don’t bring your guns with you into the halls of power. Riot – yes. Insurrection – no.
Would you rather be a teacher trapped in a classroom with a gun to try to fight off the madman? Or rely on the poorly trained cops in the hallway? Me – I would rather have a gun and take my chances fighting the killer. But you do you.
Don’t expect rickA to be swayed by facts. His entire posting career is him denying them and making up his own version of reality.
rickA continues his asinine “arm the teachers” bullshit. He probably is stupid enough to think that it would help, but good lord, that certainly indicates just how stupid he really is
Re: EickA “Would you rather be a teacher trapped in a classroom with a gun to try to fight off the madman? . . .”
You apparently didn’t watch the video and you don’t seem to have any idea what a classroom looks like and where your gun would have to be in a classroom situation.
The assassin in Uvalde simply walked into classrooms and began firing in a matter of seconds. He had the initial advantage of (1) knowing what he was going to do and (2) surprise. In most if not all schools, he would always have advantage of the fact that there seldom even cover for one in a classroom and that no one would be wearing protective equipment. Furthermore, a classroom teacher will generally be standing up facing the door and would likely be shot immediately. If you are thinking that any school in the U. S. is going to have a gun right to hand in a classroom, especially in an elementary school, you are deluding yourself. If allowed at all it would have to be secured and therefore take at least some time to access.
I think you may be deluding yourself with fantasies of being the main character in a movie (which is a fantasy probably shared by some of the people who do the shooting and show up at Trumpist rallies).
Surely the answer, then, is to arm the children. I would suggest low-calibre weapons for primary school, because of recoil issues, but high schoolers could handle AR-style weapons.
Kindergarten would be a problem…perhaps some sort of poison-gas dispensers?
Yes, I am being silly-but this road only goes downhill.
Re: RickA “None of the people legally carrying weapons at the rally tried to bring them into Congress. Not a very effective insurrection if you don’t bring your guns with you into the halls of power. . . .”
Thanks to inadequate preparation by the police, preparation and clever military tactics by the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, a fifth columnist in the Pentagon, and Trump’s complete inaction for several hours during the insurrection,* the Capitol was breached rather easily without military weapons being needed although insurrectionists armed with guns were seen by police. Combat soon became mostly close-up, where guns are not as useful. Weapons that were used can be seen in many videos and included spear-pointed flag poles and bear spray. Thanks to effective removal to safety of Mike Pence and members and staff of the House and Senate, no weapons were needed to execute anyone not in Trump’s ranks of idolators.
* An insurrection is by definition “a rising up against authority,” in this case the lawful authority being the Constitution and the police defending it. An uprising does not need to be successful to be an insurrection. This one was deliberately planned and instigated over months and was part of a multi-pronged attempt to overturn the election of Joe Biden and came close to achieving the first forced delay in the transfer of power in the history of the U. S. A. and is almost certainly a warning of things to come. The unusual coordination of several separate right wing groups on and about the January 6th 2021 insurrection was an ominous sign to agencies that have to deal with domestic terrorism.
It s almost as if the methods of the Taliban have been studied and employed but with that extra enabling element of the dark web and its like.
Laws were broken, it seems lawyers are OK with that as long as it is those of their ideology who are doing so.
The big worry is that there must be numerous groups of well armed civilians instilled with hatred of any but of their own kind, littered all across the more rural US and propelled by blowhards such as Alex Jones (did you know his second Christian name is Emerick) of Infowars.
Definitely echoes of Friekorps and Brownshirts, not to mention the widespread wearing of coal scuttle helmets and use of Nazi swastika. This version being the anti-clockwise symbol representing night and the god Kali. Swanstika coming from the Sanskrit Svastika. The clockwise rotating version being associated with good fortune.
Re: dean “Don’t expect rickA to be swayed by facts. His entire posting career is him denying them and making up his own version of reality.”
An interesting topic, that. I usually have low expectations; I’ve spent some time trying to teach bio-evolution to anti-evolution creationists.
Remember Trump’s infamous remark about the riot and killing in Charlottesville, North Carolina a few years back: “There are good people on both sides” referring to American Nazis and such as one of the sides? There’s a “different version of reality.” I would not be surprised, though, to learn that individual versions of reality are considered normal by psychologists.
In law, though, I’ve learned recently, it is different. I was a bit cheered to learn that there are legal limits. In cases of civil or criminal law, being intentionally ignorant of facts that would make you liable or implicated is called “willful blindness” and is not available legally as an excuse. (This may come up if ex-POTUS Trump finds himself in court fighting criminal charges related to his attempts to hang on to power. I such a case, I am expecting believable threats of civil war. )
Speaking of that: two of trump’s domestic terrorists recently broke down in tears in court when they were sentenced to 44 months in prison because, well, they were terrorists taking part in an attempted insurrection. They pled for leniency and wanted to return to their families and children — thankfully, the judge said “nope”, that they’d already received a sweet deal.
Regarding Tyvor’s comment [Mattice is the lawyer for one of the two dirtbags who were sentenced]
That description fits pretty much fits all of trump’s supporters [resident trump apologist included]
Re: dean “That description fits pretty much fits all of trump’s supporters [resident trump apologist included]”
It can certainly be difficult to find dependable information on line amidst so many sites where lies, baseless theories, and miscellaneous b.s. are presented. Those of us in education who once greeted the young internet as a boon to education have been depressed to see that.
Ah! The excitement of Project Guttenberg and before Bill Gates even knew what a network was.
Right-wing propaganda from officials in Uvalde. They tried to give Texas’ DPS a “narrative” of their actions on the day of the shooting. The narrative included these gems.
Later it referred to the Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District police force and its Uvalde Police Department officers as heroes.
It also stated that
The released video shows they did have shields and tactical gear. However, their document didn’t include the fact that they didn’t have keys to the classroom, something [Police Chief] Pete Arredondo stated was a hindering factor.
In short, a package of lies, just what you expect from the right.
https://www.insider.com/uvalde-officials-tried-positive-picture-of-police-response-report-narrative-2022-7?utm_source=fark&
Re: dean “their document didn’t include the fact that they didn’t have keys to the classroom,”
According to Reuters (June 20th) “The classroom door in the Uvalde elementary school where 19 children and two teachers were killed in May was not locked even as police waited for a key.” Apparently, the police never tried the door. The whole situation makes me alternately fiercely angry and chokingly tearful. And all this tragedy because of the so-called “pro-life” party that elects sociopathic people like Greg We-will-eliminate-rape-in-Texas Abbott and the unspeakable Donald Trump.
Just in case someone might think the pure evil of modern republicans is down to exaggeration:
https://twitter.com/musclesnnursing/status/1548740495089827840?s=20&t=kFf52dMqtxpGoL32tG5kBg