Everyone in the US will be vaccinated by early August.

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Everyone eligible and who wants to, that is.

Have a look at this line. I call it “line going up.” Feel free to download it and use it for your own purposes.

This line. It is going up.

I ask you to consider the following questions. Assume the vertical scale on the y-axis is 10:

1) What is the average value of this line?

2) What is the average value of the last 20% of the line, over to the left?

3) Assume the “line going up” is in fact upward-going indefinitely. This is the first ten units of time. What will be the average value of the second ten units of time?

4) Given the same assumption, what is the average value of all 20 units of time?

5) If you were asked to predict the total magnitude (all the areas under the curve) for all of the curve, for the next 10 units of time only, what would it be?

1: about 5.
2: About 8
3: About 15
4: About 10
5: A lot, but it runs from about 10 to about 20, so if it is that many units per day, about 150 (the average of 10 and 20 times 10).

I know you got all those questions right. So, now that we can do baby analytical geometry and statistics, have a look at this:

This graph shows an upward trend. We know the trend is somewhat open-ended up to about 7 million a day, with new vaccines coming on line. The drop before the recent mode, which casues an average that would have been about 2.0 million per day, was caused by a preternatural natural disaster (Texas). So, the best estimate of curent production is much closer to 2.5, not 1.7, and that rate will continue to go up so in about four weeks it will be closer to 4 million a day. This is not just based on me looking at the graph and sucking my thumb. This is what the experts are saying. April through July would be 600 million doses, many of which would be one shot doses of the newest vaccines. In other words, every eligible person in the US will be vaccinated by the end of July, comfortably.

That is a very conservative estimate.

Why to people take perfectly good data combined with clear projections from the health experts and turn them into bald face lies? Oh, it is not a lie you say, just a mistake. No, I reply, it is impossible to make a mistake like this and publish it in bloomberg. This is a lie, designed to get a rise out of the readership, and that lie regardless of its intent will contribute to the gloom and doom and that has consequences.

Have you read the breakthrough novel of the year? When you are done with that, try:

In Search of Sungudogo by Greg Laden, now in Kindle or Paperback
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7 thoughts on “Everyone in the US will be vaccinated by early August.

  1. Path or curve, technically, not a line, but point well taken.

    I’m a little less optimistic about your timeline. Interference with vaccine availability by right-wing governors, as we’re already seeing to some extent in Florida, is one reason. The others — all the uncontrollable things that can happen: severe weather hampering distribution, manufacturing issues, etc. Too many years of being a general pessimist I guess. (I have to say I am amazed/disturbed by the number of people I teach with and live near who say they aren’t going to get vaccinated because “none of the vaccines have been carefully tested”. The same reason across the board.)

    But absent all those things I would agree with your estimate. My wife gets her 2nd Pfizer vaccine this Wednesday (part of the local school system). I’ll have to wait until May to turn 65, unless things change. But it’s closer every day.

    1. Right on the line, but I’m trying to dumb it down a bit..

      Anyway, I agree with our concerns, and they are correct, but I built in a 30 day buffer!

    1. Pfizer has a trial ongoing with children in the 12-15 year old range, but it only got off the ground a short time ago. They’ve reached their desired number of subjects.

      Moderna’s trial for 12-17 year olds is getting started but enrollment is proving slow. They predict they won’t have any progress on a study or data for children 11 and younger until next year (2022).

  2. The concept of herd immunity involves randomness within the herd. Humans are not a herd, of course, but it approximates. But, if the subset that is not immune is not random, than strange things can happen.

  3. Dr. Michael Ryan of the W.H.O. said today that it is unrealistic to expert the pandemic to end this year. I agree. Of course mass vaccination is going to help, but it is going to be a long time – perhaps well into 2022 – before life will return to anything close to normal. The sooner we face that reality, the better we will be. We will win, but it is going to be a protracted battle. The third wave is beginning here and the rush towards ending restrictions in states like Texas and Mississippi is a recipe for disaster.

    Over here in the EU the vaccination program creeps along. I am 63 but I will probably not be vaccinated until late in April or even after that.

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