I estimate that there are about a dozen highly likely turnovers from Democrat to Republican control of house seats, net. These are what I regard as, roughly, sure things. There are enough other districts that are close that I’m comfortable saying that in a strong Blue Wave, we will have 25 turnovers.
If I’m right, the electorate acting as it usually does will move the Democrats about half way to a majority. The Putin-Trump-Republican axis will continue to control the United States. If I’m right, but there is also a strong blue wave, the control of the House will be as close to 50-50 as it can be, and given the closeness of several of the races, there will be recounts.
Since there is an uneven number of members in the house, and there are a lot of them, and many of them are old or indictable, expect the control of the house to switch back and forth a time or two over the next two years, should there be a blue wave.
Details:
Arkansas: There will be no turnovers in Arkansas. If anything, the one close seat (Arkansas’ 2nd) is more Republican now than it was two weeks ago. We won’t be returning to Arkansas this year.
Arizona second will be a turnover from R to D.
Nothing else will be happening in Arizona’s house districts.
For California’s 39th,I’m adding a new category to supplement “probably yes” and “no way.” I’ll call it “If only.” If only there is a stronger than expected blue wave, California’s 39th district will result in an R to D takeaway.
California’s 45th is a turnover.
California’s 49th is a turnover.
California’s 48th is an If Only, heading for a likely turnover, but it is not there yet.
California’s 25th is an If Only, heading for a likely turnover, but it is not there yet.
California’s 10th is an If Only, heading for a likely turnover, but it is not there yet.
Colorado’s 6th district is a very likely turnover.
I previously opined about Florida, but no more. Nothing will change there.
Iowa’s 1st district is a turnover.
Iowa’s 3rd district is an If Only.
Fogettabout Illinois.
Kansas’ 3rd district is a turnover.
Kansas’ 2nd district is probably a turnover, but the data are erratic. I’ll keep it in the If Only column for now.
Kentucky’s 6th district is an If Only.
A lot of people are looking at Maine’s 2nd district as a possible takeaway>. To me, it is only barely an If Only.
Michigan’s 11th is a turnover, while Michigan’s 8th is an If Only.
Minnesota’s 1st district is a likely loss of one for the Democrats, but the Democratic candidate is showing recent good numbers, so maybe not. But I have to be conservative and put this district in the negative column.
Minnesota’s 2nd district is a turnover.
Minnesota’s 3rd district is a turnover!
Minnesota’s 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th districts are stable.
Minnesota’s 8th district is strong Republican. However, there is an October Surprise happening there right now that could help. But it won’t. This will be a negative number.
So, Minnesota is the only state that will lose democrats in the house, but it will also gain, for a net zero.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and put New Jersey’s 2nd, 3rd, and 7th districts all in the If Only category.
New York’s 19th district is an If Only, verging on a takeaway.
I’m going to stick with my original wild assertion that Pennsylvania’s 1st district is a turnover, even though everyone else thinks it is not.
Pennsylvania’s 5th, 6th, and 7th are turnovers.
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Here in Virginia, most analysts expect the 10th to flip, and the 2nd, 5th, and 7th are considered real possibilities of flipping. So the Democrats could, it things go well for them, pick up four seats in Virginia.