Update Monday June 6 AM: TropicalStorm Colin is heading for Florida.
The disturbance first noted a few days ago east of the Yucatan has moved across the mainland, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and with the relatively warm sea surfaces there as a source of inspiration, turned into Colin, a tropical storm.
Colin is not expected to become a hurricane, but it will make landfall somewhere on the Florida coast between, roughly, between Tallahassee and Tampa, tonight (Monday). The center of the current forecast is somewhere near Fish Creek and Steinhatchee, but that may change and this will be a large, wide, wet and windy blob.
The storm will cross the base of the florida peninsula and come out to the Atlantic late Tuesday or Tuesday night, somewhere near the Georgia/Florida state line, where it will affect coastal regions in the Atlantic. The storm will then head north up the Atlantic and dissipate.
It is possible the storm will actually be its strongest after it has crossed land and is over the warm near coastal Atlantic waters, where sustained winds may be about 60 mph.
It is very rare to have three named storms by the end of the first week of the hurricane season, but note that the first named storm actually occurred nearer to the end of the 2015 season but was tacked on to this year’s season for some reason.
But, it is also interesting to note that having two named storms by the end of the first week of the hurricane season is still fairly rare. So, perhaps this is going to be an interesting hurricane season after all!
It is way to early to be sure, but there is a better than even chance that a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic near the Yucatan will develop over the weekend and subsequent days into something namable, and if so, it will be named Colin.
This weather system will likely cross the Yucatan over the next couple of days, and then, when in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, gain some strength and turn into something.
Even if the system does not become a tropical storm of some sort, it will make parts of Mexico, Cuba and Florida wet.