2016 US Presidential Election: Trump/Carson/Somebody vs. Clinton (polls)

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The current polling as shown on the Huffpo Pollster, using only “likely voters” and “non partisan polls” shows that Trump and Carson are neck and neck and have been close for a week. Most of the other candidates are so low it is impossible to imagine any of them rising to a level of significance. On the other hand, there are still so many clowns in the clown car that it is hard to say. If eight or nine of the candidates dropped out over the next few weeks, it is possible that someone will rise up.

On the other hand, there is a thing about how the Republicans pick their candidate that may have a significant effect and cause neither Carson nor Trump to get the nomination. It works like this. There are many states (and/or Congressional Districts, which matters more in some states) where there aren’t that many Tea Bagger Republicans, but still a good number of delegates. States like New York could be sending a very large number of delegates who would never consider a Trump or a Carson, while states like Alabama might send a small number of delegates who are strongly in favor of the fringe candidates (like Trump and Carson, fringe in the sense of their, well, you know what I mean.) So, we’ll see. Frankly, we might not know what is going to happen in the GOP race until Super Tuesday or later.

In the Democratic Race, looking again only at likely voters and non-partisan pols, Clinton has been ahead of Sanders all along and her relative position has risen slightly. Hillary Clinton currently has a commanding and steadily growing lead over Sanders.

The Gop poll is shown above, the Democratic poll shown below.

Screen Shot 2015-11-05 at 1.32.45 PM

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20 thoughts on “2016 US Presidential Election: Trump/Carson/Somebody vs. Clinton (polls)

  1. “There are many states .. where there aren’t that many Tea Bagger Republicans, but still a good number of delegates.”

    Clearly, Democrats and independents in those states should cross over and vote for Trump or Carson in the primary. Let’s give the base the candidate they want!

  2. I absolutely expect other Republicans to rise to significance. It’s a long time until the election, and remember the last cycle? Every month the Republicans had a new leader. However, if I understand it right, they changed their rules so that most (all?) primaries will be winner take all. In 2012 that would have helped Romney wrap up the nomination faster, but in 2016 it could just mean a bunch of candidates with delegates and no majority. In other words, a brokered convention.

  3. “..like Trump and Carson, fringe in the sense of their, well, you know what I mean.”

    Hairstyles? 😉

    (Sorry couldn’t resist.)

    I agree with Greg here. Its gotta be somebody else. Until recently I’d have said almost certainly Jeb! (BUSH!!!) but he’s just done so badly I’m now thinking maybe Rubio, Graham or Christie? A relative moderate (for the Repubs if not reality) who the fringe hate anyhow. I find it very hard to believe even the Republicans would seriously put forward either Trump or Carson as their nominee.

    This point in the last presidential cycle wasn’t it a case of Bachman or Caine or anybody but Rmoney? The US election is still just such a long, lo-oong, long way away with so much yet to happen.

  4. Wonder what will happen now that Ben Carson, shortly after he asked “Do you think I’m a pathological liar?” admitted that his West Point story was a complete lie.

  5. If it’s a well-crafted lie, then conservatives will love it.

    I’m sure they will, as the rising defense of the West Point story shows. I’m also amused at their willingness to look the other way at the portion of his autobiography where he states that despite his mother having been an extremely hard-working woman, there were many times they would not have been able to make it were it not for public assistance and food stamps.
    The willingness to ignore these aspects about Carson is eerily similar to the ability to recast Reagan as a great man rather than what he was, a human with all of the usual shortcomings and more.

  6. The willingness to ignore these aspects about Carson is eerily similar to the ability of the Germans to ignore these aspects about the … Well, you know, Godwin’s Law & all. (Funny how that always seems to be triggered when discussing Conservatives. Real kind funny. As in odd, not humorous.)

    Among Reagan’s shortcomings: Getting talked into committing a felony while in office. Oops, here comes the whitewash brigade…

  7. Well yes, he did sell arms to terrorists, and get a few hundred marines killed for no reason, and trash the economy, never submit a balanced budget, but he did make it “ok” to be a racist again. That’s why the right adores him.

  8. “They pray to a different God.”

    Which is okay… Provided:
    1. They stay out of politics.
    2. They stop trying to be PC and claim its the same God.

  9. “Wonder what will happen now that Ben Carson, shortly after he asked “Do you think I’m a pathological liar?” admitted that his West Point story was a complete lie.”

    A complete lie.
    Another from the dean of lies.

  10. He has. This one’s all over the news right now.

    Conservatives: Cannot see what’s in front of their faces… if their ideology tells them not to see it.

    Their brains are not their own. Sieg… Heil…

  11. #13
    Wait a minute! See Noevo knows that the pyramids were built by aliens to store grain, and you don’t. What does that say about your credibility?

  12. It means I’m a failure as a ditto head… After Carson takes over and turns America into his theocracy, they’ll send the stormtroopers after me. I’m guilty of thoughtcrime…

  13. Item from today’s news:

    Egypt buys 120,000 metric tons of wheat from France

    If only they had storage facilities for all that wheat.

  14. Carson is on my DEMENTED list… As is anyone who says they’d vote for him. For anything.

    Just the idea that he’s running and polling so high is SCARY.

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