Monthly Archives: February 2013

Charles Darwin, Geologist

Everyone knows that Darwin was a biologist, and in many ways he was the first prominent modern biologist. Though Darwin scholars know this, many people do not realize that he was also a geologist. Really, he was mainly a geologist on the day he stepped foot on The Beagle for his famous five year tour. This is especially true if we count his work on coral reefs as a geological study, even though coral reefs are a biological phenomenon. After all, the standing model for coral reef formation at the time came from the field of Geology.

To exemplify this, I’ve put together a list of several of Darwin’s print publications with their publication dates:

Continue reading Charles Darwin, Geologist

Finding Nemo

Climate experts have pointed out that Nemo, the very bad nor’easter that just hit the Northeastern US and Maritimes, is partly an effect of global warming. Some meteorologists have responded with an incorrect response, a recitation of a now tired and useless mumbling retort that I’m afraid may even have it origin among scientists who should know better, and at the very least was kept alive by them for far too long: “Well, you can’t really attribute any given weather event to climate change.” Some regular people who are not climate scientists have repeated that faleshood as well. Then there are people making the claim that a bad winter storm is proof that climate change is not real or reversing or some other such thing. This of course is wrong at so many levels that if a scientist (even a non-climate scientist, just anyone who values critical thinking) said it they would be fired and sent off the humanities in a second. I will also mention this, because it helps us to get at a causal mechanism for what is going on here: Many people have stated, quite clearly on TV and Facebook and all those other good places, that “The Upper Midwest” or more particularly “Minnesota” gets more snow than Massachusetts or the Northeastern US. This is incorrect. Plain, simply, untrue. But that people believe this tell us something about people’s beliefs about the weather and helps explain some things. By the way, I’ve lived in New York, Massachusetts and Minnesota and I can tell you that people who live in the Northeast think Minnesota gets more snow, and people in Minnesota think Minnesota gets more snow. So everybody is wrong and in the same way. This isn’t just a mater of each region thinking they get the most snow.

And yes, as I’ve implied, all these things are connected and I’ll show how. The conclusion of this essay, though, will be the following points: Continue reading Finding Nemo

Science and Science Communication: Self Correcting

Climate change has had a big impact in Africa. We can certainly talk about that some time. But when a David Attenborough BBC special mentioned one aspect of climate change impact they got the facts wrong. Leo Hickman of The Environment Blog at The Guardian noticed the error and wrote a very interesting blog post tracking down how this happened. The BBC, in response, has removed the specific reference from the special.

This is important because it is important to get it right, but it is also important because it demonstrates that those whom climate science denialists incorrectly call “alarmists” are really just interested in the truth, even when it removes or reduces an “alarming” statement about global warming.

Check out Leo’s post: BBC exaggerated climate change in David Attenborough’s Africa…Attenborough claims in BBC One’s Africa series that part of the continent has warmed by 3.5C over the past 20 years…

I don’t like that title because it seems to say that the BBC exaggerated the overall effects of climate change, but really they just got this one fact wrong. But headlines are often annoyingly misleading like that. I doubt Leo wrote the headline. Anyway, go read the post.

Convergence: Just a few months away!

Don’t forget to register for CONvergence. If you register early you get a break on the rate. Details at their site.

For those who don’t now, CONvergence is the largest fan run fantasy and science fiction convention, and it is held in the Twin Cities at or near the 4th of July. And, even better, every year for the last several years, Skepchick has organized a bunch of panels at The CON on skepticism, science and stuff, and for the last few years I’ve been invited to be on some of those panels, and have helped organize. Last Year Free Thought Blogs joined with Skepchick so some of those bloggers came as well.

I’m hoping to see you there! (Depending on who you are, of course.)

Anyway, get your tickets.

Creationist Home Schooling Science Fair

“You will be a restless wanderer on the earth” -Genesis 4:12

Today, a few of us visited the Twin Cities Home School Creation Science Fair of 2013 at its new location. The fair used to be held in the historic Har Mar Shopping Mall but for some reason it has wandered up the road and across Snelling Avenue to a nearby Christian college on the shores of beautiful Lake Johanna Lake, in Roseville, Minnesota.

We were, verily, Mike, Angry by Choice, and me. Angry arrived separately and reviewed the exhibits on his own, and Mike and I visited nearly all of the 23 posters together and spoke to many of the kids presenting their science projects.

… pay no attention to lies. -Exodus 5:9

Let’s be clear right away: This science fair advertises itself this way:

Unlike Some Science Fair Sites
We Are For Real!
Unlike Many Secular Educators
We Teach The Scientific Method!

I don’t now which “some” science fairs or “secular educators” shun the scientific method, so I’ll take that as a lie by the organizers, who are Young Earth Creationists with a rather weak grasp on reality. Also, there was clearly no requirement that the scientific method be used in these projects as many did not. Having said that, a number of the student’s projects rose above the organizers’s self-hobbled concept of science and were pretty good, and in two or three cases the kids were able to answer questions that probed beyond the script and addressed things not explicitly shown in their posters. For instance, the project on “getting electricity from plants” which examined the difference between various roots and fruits elicited the question “What would happen if you attached a grapefruit to a potato in series” and the student was able to explain the results of trials, not shown on the poster, of mixed plant tissue batteries that he had messed around with.

World Views In Collision: “But Lot’s wife looked back, and she became a pillar of salt.” -Genesis 19:26

Only one poster only was pure creationist nonsense; the student wasn’t there and I think it was a young kid (judging by the style). This was a poster that set out to “prove” that stalactites and stalagmites formed very quickly and not slowly like geologists claimed. The student’s work did in fact seem to demonstrate that stalactites and stalagmites could form very very quickly. Unfortunately, those quick forming formations made by the student were Lotswifian (made of salt!) and not the usual limestone. Also, geologists are well aware that limestone deposits can in fact form vey quickly. As I recall, it was Isaac Asimov that caused the trouble with the stalagmites, going up against Immanuel Velikovsky with the claim that “Worlds in Collision” could not have happened because STLAGTITES!!!1! … Velikovsky was able to show Asimov stalagmites that were rather long formed beneath the foundation of the Lincoln Monument. This has been used by creationists since to prove that geology is wrong.

It, geology, is not wrong. Limestone deposition can be a highly dynamic process. We knew that.

(Note: Asimov, brilliant, everybody loved him, bla bla bla, was not actually a geologist…)

“Rise Up and Stop Sleeping” -Ephesians 5:13-14

Despite the fact that many of the kids did, as stated, rise above their mentors, there were some sad moments when this did not appear to be the case. One child faced with a not to difficult question about animal behavior suggested that a certain problem would be solved because “God put something in the animal to make that happen.” Other students produced experiments without controls, or with multiple conflicting results, but chose to “believe” the results that fit expectations.

Having said that, many of the limitations and shortfalls of the less than stellar posters were typical of small scale school science fairs in general, not peculiar to these students. And, a couple of the students were clearly destine for future … well, thinking and maybe even free thinking. One student was the offspring of a person who could be classified as scientist, which is a bit disturbing. But that kid is clearly going to walk right out of the religious fetters she is already clearly tossing off and do interesting things. When asked if she might pursue science she said yes, and when asked what kind, she said “the interesting stuff” and proceeded to go on an on about what was interesting.

“When Esau heard his father’s words, he burst out with a loud and bitter cry” -Genesis 27:34

Each of the posters had to have a biblical quote on them. That’s part of the scientific method, apparently. Scientific method, god style. The quotes generally had about as much to do with the project as the quotes I’ve playfully putting here have had to do with the various sections of this blog post. The nefarious thing working here, of course, is tricking the students into going through the bible one more time while they are dealing with what is clearly an alternative to biblical or religious thinking. Well, in some cases, I suppose the quote was relevant. But generally, disappointingly, not.

“The breath of God produces ice, and the broad waters become frozen.” -Job 37:10

Oh, there’s also this: I’m happy to report that the student that did the obligatory study to determin which freezes faster, hot vs. cold water, discovered that water that starts out colder reaches freezing sooner, though he was shocked by the rate at which hot water almost, but not quite, caught up.

‘The king said to him, “How many times must I make you swear to tell me nothing but the truth in the name of the Lord?”’ -1 Kings 22:16

We go to this fair to encourage students to think about science, to be possibly the only people who ask questions that may lead beyond the poster or the bible quote on the poster, but not to harass the students. Angry, Mike and I did not mention evolution vs. creationism. We just talked about the science.

There is another reason we go: To keep the creationists honest(ish). A few years ago, a group of us went to the fair and noted 20-something posters, and in that year the organizers, unaware of our presence, reported a much larger number, thus lying about the level of participation in this event. When I pointed out on my blog that all the posters depicted in all the photographs they took and we took combined did not add up to the number they claimed, the organizers of the creationist science fair deleted all their photos from their web site and accused me of being a child abuser.

Well, screw that. What we do now is we go and count the posters. Last year, no one from our group went and the organizers took the opportunity to claim that there were 60 posters. I’m thinking that is a lie because there’s never been that many. This year we counted the entries. Twenty three. There were 23 of them. We’ll swear to it. And we were able to count all the way to 23 without abusing a single child.

The Fate of the Species

Skeptically Speaking’s 200th show is coming up soon! But first, there is show #199. But before I mention show #199, I want to remind you of show #198, because I was in it:

#198 Nature’s Compass and New Caledonian Crows

This week, we’re looking at some of the amazing abilities exhibited by our animal cousins. We’ll speak to James Gould, co-author of Nature’s Compass: The Mystery of Animal Navigation, about the varying strategies animals use to find their way across all kinds of distances. And biological anthropologist Greg Laden discusses new research on the surprising reasoning abilities of some extremely intelligent crows.

I reviewed Nature’s Compass here, by the way.

Listen or Download Here

#199 Fate of The Species

This week, we’re looking at the ways that people are changing the planet, and the consequences for all of us if we don’t start doing it responsibly. We’re joined by Fred Guterl, Executive Editor at Scientific American, to discuss his book The Fate of the Species: Why the Human Race May Cause Its Own Extinction and How We Can Stop It. From climate change to superbugs, we’ll talk about the ways humanity could take itself out, and how (or if) we can stop it before it’s too late. And we’ll talk to John Cook, creator of Skeptical Science, about the political arguments over climate change.

Listen or download here

Remember the Blizzard of ’78

I wasn’t living in Boston yet; Albany, instead. But at the time I was actually travelling by car out to California, and was in Texas when this particular storm caught up with me. Texas got iced over, the Rio Grande froze, the citrus crop was destroyed and I spent two nights in Big Spring. Two months later there were still semi’s littering the roadside on Route 40 and elsewhere. This storm was the end of coastal residential development in New England. Between this storm and a few bad coastal storms that came over the next few years, thousands of homes were destroyed without being rebuilt, because the coast had already been rebuilt.

Now, I have a warning for your climate science denialists: Don’t tell me that “global warming isn’t real because 1978!!!” I’m not even going to explain why that is stupid. Just #STFU.

Anyway, here’s a blast from the past for you:

Extreme Weather in the US Northeast and Climate Change

This graph shows the extremes in one-day precipitation in a given month relative to the amount of precip in that month for the Northeastern US. So, if the green bar is at 30%, that means that that 30% of month’s precip fell in one event. The way this is computed is a little complicated because it is hard to define an “event” in time and space in relation to the time and space coordinates (as it were) we normally use. Check the source of the graph for a more detailed explanation. The point of this graph is that the opposite is true from what many expect: It isn’t the case that the snow was deeper back when you were a kid. It’s deeper now! (Check out this blog post for an explanation for why you may have misremembered your childhood.) There are a number of contributing factors to a pattern like this, with increasing extreme events, but the best way to think of this may be as an increase in the bimodality of the water cycle. Dry events are dryer (you may have noticed widespread drought) and wet events are wetter (as shown in this graph).

Northeastern US extreme precip events; more extreme rain and snow storms in more recent times.
From NOAA National Climatic Data Center.

Welcome Peter Gleick, Significant Figures Blog

Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute joins Scienceblogs.com, and here is his introductory post!

Welcome to the first post in my new National Geographic ScienceBlogs column “Significant Figures.” I look forward to sharing my thoughts with you on a wide range of environmental science-related issues, data, and people, and to a productive and constructive interaction….

If you’ve hear me mention something about “something cool about to happen on the blogs” lately, this is it. Welcome Peter!

Galileoscope. 400 years in development, only about 50 bucks.

The #LearningSpace Google Hangout was talking today about the Galileoscope project. Galileo invented (I’m sure the story is more complex) the telescope and all that, and the Galileoscope project is HERE.

The Galileoscope is a high-quality, low-cost telescope kit developed by a team of leading astronomers, optical engineers, and science educators. No matter where you live, with this easy-to-assemble, 50-mm (2-inch) diameter, 25- to 50-power achromatic refractor, you can see the celestial wonders that Galileo Galilei first glimpsed 400 years ago and that still delight stargazers today. These include lunar craters and mountains, four moons circling Jupiter, the phases of Venus, Saturn’s rings, and countless stars invisible to the unaided eye.

You buy a Galileoscope Kit and build it. I’m told it is not hard, and in fact, you can take it apart and put it back together again repeatedly. For that matter, you can

If you want, you can go to the Galileoscope project and pick a teacher somewhere, like your local grade school, and send them one. Check out your own workplace first to see if they match donations; you can send TWO galileoscopes to your local school. Or, just buy one and have fun.

If you point your PHS camera into the Galileoscope while it is looking at saturn, you can do this:

Screen Shot 2013-02-06 at 6.36.46 PM


Kit Photo Credit: druid labs via Compfight cc

The perfect gift for anyone who does not have … a banana slicer

… which I imagine is a lot of people. It is brilliant. Yellow, so you can find it among your other utensils and remember that it is for bananas. Banana shaped, which makes it godly, almost, as you all know. Safer than a knife. But what is most wonderful about the Hutzler 571 are the product reviews on Amazon’s site, which rival (almost) the product reviews for Bic’s “pens for her” (remember that?). Check it out!

CNN has not done a good job reporting climate change…

… but this can change, according to a report from Media Matters.

CNN founder Ted Turner said in 2011 that climate change is “probably the most serious … problem that humanity has ever faced,” adding that we need to “increase the amount of the debate” to motivate people to take action.

Unfortunately, the network he created has often failed to live up to that goal, devoting minimal time to the issue even while reporting on its consequences. A recent study by the Project for Improved Environmental Coverage found that environmental stories accounted for only 0.36% of CNN’s news headlines between January 2011 and May 2012, the lowest of any major TV news network. And when CNN does mention climate change, it too often ignores the role of human emissions and treats the science as a subject for debate.

But big changes are coming to CNN…

CNN is getting new leadership, and Media Matters has a number of suggestions as to how the important news network might do right by it’s viewers and the planet. Check it out.

“Belief” in Climate Change, The Weather, and Political Party

It seems that people “believe” in climate change (really, global warming in particular) when it it hot out more than at other times. And by “people” I mean the population in general. It turns out that Democrats don’t change their position on climate change as the temperature outside changes (they already know it is real) and Republicans do a little (because it is true and a small number of them will put reality before politics). Meanwhile, those darn Independent voters who have somehow taken over our democracy for some very poor reasons (IMHO) wildly change their beliefs literally on the basis of the ambient temperature. Talk about sticking your finger in the air and seeing which way the wind blows before making an important decision!

Here’s a graph showing this relationship (HT Peter Gleick):

Independents and climate change belief
Belief in Climate Change, Political Party, and Temperature.

This is based on research done at the University of New Hampshire, summarized in this press report:

Climate Change Beliefs of Independent Voters Shift with the Weather, UNH Study Finds

DURHAM, N.H. – There’s a well-known saying in New England that if you don’t like the weather here, wait a minute. When it comes to independent voters, those weather changes can just as quickly shift beliefs about climate change.

New research from the University of New Hampshire finds that the climate change beliefs of independent voters are dramatically swayed by short-term weather conditions. The research was conducted by Lawrence Hamilton, professor of sociology and senior fellow at the Carsey Institute, and Mary Stampone, assistant professor of geography and the New Hampshire state climatologist. The research is presented in the article “Blowin’ in the Wind: Short-Term Weather and Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change” in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society.

“We find that over 10 surveys, Republicans and Democrats remain far apart and firm in their beliefs about climate change. Independents fall in between these extremes, but their beliefs appear weakly held — literally blowing in the wind. Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not to,” Hamilton and Stampone say.

Hamilton and Stampone used statewide data from about 5,000 random-sample telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over two and a half years (2010 to 2012) by the Granite State Poll. They combined the survey data with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from New Hampshire’s U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records. Survey respondents were asked whether they thought climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively, respondents could state that climate change is not happening, or that it is happening but mainly for natural reasons.

Unseasonably warm or cool temperatures on the interview day and previous day seemed to shift the odds of respondents believing that humans are changing the climate. However, when researchers broke these responses down by political affiliation (Democrat, Republican or independent), they found that temperature had a substantial effect on climate change views mainly among independent voters.

“Independent voters were less likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on unseasonably cool days and more likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on unseasonably warm days. The shift was dramatic. On the coolest days, belief in human-caused climate change dropped below 40 percent among independents. On the hottest days, it increased above 70 percent,” Hamilton says.

New Hampshire’s self-identified independents generally resemble their counterparts on a nationwide survey that asked the same questions, according to the researchers. Independents comprise 18 percent of the New Hampshire estimation sample, compared with 17 percent nationally. They are similar with respect to education, but slightly older, and more balanced with respect to gender.

In conducting their analysis, the researchers took into account other factors such as education, age, and sex. They also made adjustments for the seasons, and for random variation between surveys that might be caused by nontemperature events.


Credit for graphic: Lawrence Hamilton and Mary Stampone/UNH

Republicans: US Government will wait 2 more years to address climate change

… at any serious level, and then, only if enough Republicans get thrown out of the House to allow committee work and legislation to happen. From The Hill:

House Energy and Commerce Committee Republicans have rebuffed Democrats’ bid to require the high-profile panel to hold hearings on links between climate change, extreme weather and threats to coastal areas.

On Wednesday the Committee, along party lines, voted down Democratic amendments to its formal oversight plan for the 113th Congress.

One defeated amendment, from Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.), would have required hearings on the role of climate change in drought, heat waves, wildfires, reduced crop yields and other effects.

A second defeated amendment, by Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), called for hearings on climate-related coastal threats including sea-level rise, more frequent and intense storms, and ocean acidification.

More votes – with a similar outcome – are expected when the meeting to approve the oversight plan resumes next week.

Waxman is offering a third amendment calling for a hearing on recent reports that warn, “the window for action to prevent irreversible harm from climate change is closing rapidly.”

In case you are reading this 40 years ago hence from a refugee camp somewhere inland from the flooded East Coast urban zone, these are the people who’s children you should find in order to demand your explanation:

Fred Upton (MI)- Chairman
Ralph Hall (TX)
Joe Barton (TX) – Chairman Emeritus
Ed Whitfield (KY)
John Shimkus (IL)
Joseph R. Pitts (PA)
Greg Walden (OR)
Lee Terry (NE)
Mike Rogers (MI)
Tim Murphy (PA)
Michael C. Burgess (TX)
Marsha Blackburn (TN)
Phil Gingrey (GA)
Steve Scalise (LA)
Bob Latta (OH)
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA)
Gregg Harper (MS)
Leonard Lance (NJ)
Bill Cassidy (LA)
Brett Guthrie (KY)
Pete Olson (TX)
David McKinley (WV)
Cory Gardner (CO)
Mike Pompeo (KS)
Adam Kinzinger (IL)
Morgan Griffith (VA)
Gus Bilirakis (FL)
Bill Johnson (OH)
Billy Long (MO)
Renee Ellmers (NC)