Monthly Archives: November 2012

Science Debate 08 12 14 16?

Uncategorized, , , ,

I am sure that by now you know about ScienceDebate Dot Org. It was set up for the 2008 US presidential election by a bunch of people including my friend Shawn Otto. The idea is to simultaneously push for an actual debate focussed on science and science policy as part of the presidential election process, and to make people realize that such a thing, which is not happening, is important.

We’ve had a couple of elections now that were almost overshadowed by major storms, the most recent, Sandy, being as much of a direct effect of Global Warming (a scientific issue) as any large storm ever was, since it was both strengthened by Atlantic warm waters (caused by Global Warming) and directed to New Jersey and New York by blocking features in the atmosphere that seem to have emerged from the lack of Arctic Ice (caused by Global Warming). Ya. Global warming killed over 100 Northeasterners and did a gazillion dollars in damage in one day. It is relevant. Let me say that again. It. Is. Relevant. And solving this sort of problem is a matter of science and science policy, and it is not being discussed enough.

Science Debate OK has put out a report to stakeholders, in the form of a simple web page with many useful links. It is here. Go have a look.

The time to join up with effort a propos the next presidential election is now, not later. Also, I would hope we can do things between now and then, perhaps pertaining to midterm Congressional elections.

What do you think?

And, in case you have not seen it here is a page of Science Denialism related resources.

Birds of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives

Uncategorized, , , ,

Let’s look at Birds of India: Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives (Second Edition) (Princeton Field Guides):

The best field guide to the birds of the Indian subcontinent is now even better. Thoroughly revised, with 73 new plates and many others updated or repainted, the second edition of Birds of India now features all maps and text opposite the plates for quicker and easier reference. Newly identified species have been added, the text has been extensively revised, and all the maps are new. Comprehensive and definitive, this is the indispensable guide for anyone birding in this part of the world.

Of all the different regional bird guides that I’ve looked at over the last several months, including those I’ve got on my desk waiting for my attention, two are thicker than all the others, Birds of India: Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, and Birds of Melanesia: Bismarcks, Solomons, Vanuatu, and New Caledonia. “What does that mean?” you may ask. “What does thicker have to do with anything?”

One word: Plastics. No, wait, I mean: Speciosity. Melanesia and India are big, the latter bigger, and also, it isn’t really just India, it is South Asia including all those other countries mentioned in the title. Big gives you more species. But beyond that, these regions have a lot of species for other reasons. Many reasons have been proposed but two come to mind right now: 1) Diversity in terrain, and 2) being at the end of huge regions where species may get crammed into you like pebbles in a toddler’s pocket.

Birds of India covers 1,375 species with 226 color plates shoeing each of then and numerous color morphs and varieties. The illustrations are high quality and the info is laid out in old style Peterson with maps and descriptions across from the plates.

There are nine species of eagles in this region. Countless owls. Numerous frogmouths. You will obviously want this book (or this edition if you’ve got the older edition in hand) if you are going to the region or live in South Asia, but even if you don’t, but are big on birds, this is a nice book to have on your shelf for during your own surveying of diversity. For people living in certain temperate regions, I’ve recommended getting the corresponding tropical region’s books (one or two anyway) so you can visit, virtually, the sister species of the brilliant rainforest birds that come to your back yard, like the Tanagers, but even if you don’t live in the Old World you may consider this volume as the representative of the part of the world you don’t live in.

<ul>
  • Other bird book reviews are here.
    • <li><a href="http://10000birds.com/author/greg">My posts at 10,000 Birds are here. </a></li>

<li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/category/birds/">Other posts on birds are here.</a></li></ul>

    Help Kyrsten Sinema

    Uncategorized

    You know who she is, right? An openly gay candidate for congress in Arizona’s 9th district. Apparently there is a recount going on there, and it looks pretty good for Kyrsten.

    But, recounts are tricky and unless both sides have equal and quality legal presence, the side with more lawyers can win even if the votes should have gone the other way. Therefore, it is necessary for you to send five dollars to Kyrsten’s legal fund right now NAO!!! There is no time to lose. She needs this by the end of the day today or tomorrow.

    CLICK HERE

    Send $25 if you can. Actually, she needs $50,000 but I know you probably don’t have that.

    Thank you very much.

    Climate change book for young readers

    Uncategorized, ,

    What are Global Warming and Climate Change?: Answers for Young Readers is a fairly unique book, as far as I know. It explains climate change, contextualized global warming, discusses causes and consequences and directly addresses the politics of climate change and global warming. The official book description:

    “Global warming is one of the most talked about science subjects today. Maybe you have seen pictures of polar bears or other animals stranded atop floating chunks of melting ice. Perhaps you have heard about or lived through extreme weather – hurricanes, floods, water shortages, heat waves, or electricity blackouts. Many of these events can stem from the world getting warmer. As that happens, the climate changes, too. This book helps young readers understand the sciences used to study global warming. Each chapter addresses specific questions about why the temperatures of the earth’s air and oceans are rising. The information presented aligns with the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: that most of the warming observed over the last half-century is due to human activities and that the impacts of global warming will be significantly negative. Using a question-and-answer format supplemented by hands-on activities, this book fosters an understanding of the complex processes at work in global warming while also enabling youngsters to think critically about their future. McCutcheon ends his book by offering young readers productive ways to think about – and act on – changes in the environment contributing to climate change. McCutcheon taps his mastery of a complicated, highly charged topic to permit young readers to become informed consumers of sciences associated with the most urgent topic of their future – global warming.“

    Perfect for an earth science or environmental science class in middle school or for the youngish home schooler. Now we need one for high school!

    It is a textbook like hard cover, nicely laid out and richly illustrated. The book does a great job of dealing with modeling, climate-weather distinction, and the longer term history of human impact on the environment. The activities are fun and useful. Personally, I want every 9-12 year old to have this book.

    Science Denialism: Some resources

    Uncategorized, , , , ,

    The term “War on Science” comes from multiple sources, one being Chris Mooney’s book “The Republican War on Science” (see below) and another, the made up “War on Christmas,” a term attributed to Bill O’Really. Throw in a little “Culture War” rhetoric and I think we have a good basis for the origin of the term. The term “War on X” has been in used for decades if not longer, when some large perhaps organized group of people or institutions takes up the task of shutting down some thing or another. It does not mean an actual war with generals and troops and bullets, but the metaphor “war” is still quite apt because there are generals and troops and bullets, just metaphorical ones.

    Anyway, I thought it would be a good idea to provide a list of current or recent books and other resources pertaining to the war on science. Where I’ve reviewed a book here, I provide a link to that review. There are also some helpful web sites and podcasts listed below. The listing of resources is divided up by “front” or “battle ground” where appropriate, keeping with the “War on Science” metaphor.

    The War on Science, General

    Continue reading Science Denialism: Some resources →

    Illustrated Guide to Home Biology Experiments (book review)

    Uncategorized, ,

    One of the more popular books I’ve ever reviewed here, judging by the number of people who read the review, was this one on home chemistry. Now, let’s see if we can meet or beat the physical sciences with this new title:Illustrated Guide to Home Biology Experiments: All Lab, No Lecture (DIY Science). Robert Bruce Thompson, author of the chemistry book, has teamed up with Barbara Fritchman Thompson, to produce this new work.

    The book has a lot of experiments in it, organized in a reasonable way, with complete instructions on everything. I would prefer to see more graphics illustrating the procedures and materials, but there are illustrations and they are good. I would just like more. The 30 or so experiments (parsed out into a much larger number of procedures) is targeted towards middle and high school students and in particular, home schoolers, but also hobbyists. The Illustrated Guide to Home Biology Experiments: All Lab, No Lecture (DIY Science) is designed to be used along side a biology text.

    One of the best ways to evaluate a book like this may be to look at the Table of Contents. So, here it is, unformatted: Continue reading Illustrated Guide to Home Biology Experiments (book review) →

    Live Blogging Election 2012

    Uncategorized, ,

    I’ll be jotting notes here. Feel free to jot notes in the comments.

    Bernie Sanders re-elected

    6:22 PM Central: Virginia reporting good numbers for Obama. Larger turnouts than 2008 in VA.

    6:54 PM Central: Senate: 30 DEM seats called, 37 GOP seats.

    Leaving the polling place today, there was a couple behind me. She said, “Well, that didn’t take long.” He said “And it was easy. I have a system.” “What’s the system.” “If the person is an incumbent, I don’t vote for them.”

    Then, me, in my head “… idiot …”

    More money spent this year in Minnesota’s 8th district than in all races in that district ever to date, combined, including mayorial, county, and EVERYTHING and we are only slightly exaggerating. That’s up on the Iron Range.

    West Va called for Romney

    Republicans lose about 1.7% of the vote every presidential election year because they are the white party and that’s the loss rate of whiteosity in the US.

    Current Electoral Vote: Romney 153, Obama 123

    Called Races:
    OBAMA 79
    Vermont CALLED Obama
    DC CALLED Obama
    Illinous CALLED Obama
    Maine CALLED Obama
    Maryland CALLED Obama
    Massachusetts CALLED Obama
    Connecticut CALLED Obama
    Delaware CALLED Obama
    Rhode Island CALLED Obama
    New Jersey CALLED Obama
    New York CALLED Obama
    Michigan CALLED Obama

    ROMNEY 82
    Georgia CALLED Romney
    Indiana CALLED Romney
    Kentucky CALLED Romney
    South Carolina CALLED Romney
    West Virginia CALLED Romney
    Oklahoma CALLED Romney
    Alabama CALLED Romney
    Mississippi CALLED Romney
    Tennessee CALLED Romney
    Arkansas CALLED Romney
    Texas CALLED Romney
    Lousiana CALLED Romney
    Kansas CALLED Romney
    Nebraska CALLED Romney
    North Dakota CALLED Romney
    South Dakota CALLED Romney
    Wyoming CALLED Romney

    Leaning/Trending:
    Florida: Leaning Obama
    New Hampshire: Leaning Obama
    North Carolina Obama
    Ohio, less than one percent, Romney doing STRONG
    Virginia, Romney ahead

    I actually don’t like states being called at 1 percent or less of the vote counted, even if those states are almost certainly going to go a certain way. Makes a mockery of the system. I suppose not doing it would make a mockery of statistics.

    Which reminds me of an argument I had today with a young man who does not understand data or statistics or inference or anything. Imagine the following situation: My neighbor goes out into his yard every now and then and mows his lawn. I make the assertion to you that I believe that he does so when he thinks his grass is too long and needs to be cut. Now, here’s the question: What is the chance that it is true that he really does believe his grass is too long and this is what motivates him to cut it? Now, alternatively, I tell you that I went over to him while he was mowing the lawn and asked him why he was doing that. I report to you that he said “The grass got long, that’s why I’m cutting it.”

    Now, here’s the question: Do you think he belived the grass was too long in either of these cases? How mush stock would you put in my guess regarding his motivations, vs my reporting to you what he said his motivation was.

    The young man insisted that my guess as to my neighbor’s motivation was totally unusable as data, there were thousands of alternative reasons he might be mowing his lawn, and my assumption that he is cutting his lawn becauase he believes it to be too long is “confirmation bias.” Meanwhile, he claimed that reporting the man’s answer to the question about his motivation was solid unquestioned data about his motivations. What do you think?

    OK, back to Election 2012!

    7:00 PM Central PBS coverage is starting.

    15 states are closed. I’ll put the new results above

    PBS says they have a very nifty “multichannel” live stream thingie. But, everhone on the planet just tried to access it and it appears to be dead.

    BIGGEST current news, Virginia extended poll hours, turnout HUGE, reporting delayed.
    OTHER BIGGEST CURRENT NEWS Ohio early voting will be reported at 8:30 local

    2 out of 5 Romney supporters, generally, in the polling over recent months supported Romney mainly to beat Obama (the black guy) not to support Romney.

    7:20 PM CENTRAL Bill Nelson won in Florida for Senate, the Republicans were hoping to take that but didn’t. But overall the Senate race data isn’t interesting yet. The guy running against Nelson did not do well because he did not run well. (Nelson had replaced Katherine Harris, if you want to beak out in a cold sweat)

    7:40 Chris Murphey, Dem, beats McMahon in Connecticut for Senate. That was a competitive race. That was earlier Lieberman’s seat, so this is sort of a Dem pickup.

    Exit polls in Ohio: People favor auto bailout.

    Virginia: Voter turnout is AMAZING … some people waited five hours to vote. The board of election had delayed release of results. People are still in line nearly two hours after polls closed. Maybe.

    8:00 North Carolina, too close to call, could go either way. Romney always claimed a lock, maybe not.

    8:10 PM Central … Missouri Senate … Remember Senator Legitimate Rape Guy Aitkin? Hmmm. thought there was going to be some reporting on that but I’m only seeing wild speculation. This might force me to tell you my one Missouri story….. but prob. not.

    Competitive Penn Dem Senate race, Republicans had hopes for, goes Dem.

    CBS News projects that the Republicans will maintain control of the house.

    Obama gets Pennsylvania!!!

    8:25 PM

    Senate races: Pennsylvania, Bob Casey returns
    Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Dem incumbant
    Amy Klobuchar wins by a huge landside
    Kirsten Gillibrand wins, incumbant Dem.
    Ted Teapartier Kruz Republican, new senator, replacing a Democratic woman, I think.

    8:30
    Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio.

    8:40PM Central
    Romney must get some combination of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. I like maybe all three. Not looking good. He’s still winning, though.

    Elizabeth Warren wins in Massachusetts. FUCK YAH TEDDY!!!!

    Joe Kennedy III to the HOuse from Mass

    Romney lost in MA, where he was gov. He lost in Mich, where he is from and his dad was gov.Now, he lost NH, home of his vacation home

    And now, for some state and local results… maybe …

    Oh never mind. No results.

    9:55 We’ve got about 13 percent of the votes counted in Minnesota with a lot of conservative counties not represented yet, but the two constitutional amendments … gay marriage and voter ID … are not doing well. They are both showing a less than 50% result (needed to be passed) and are actually being voted down by a majority that is voting “No”

    Also, North Carolina just called for Romney

    Obama wins California, Hawaii,

    10:14: Obama has been called as winner by CNN. On PBS, however, they won’t interrupt an interview with R.E. to celebrate. Strange.

    Coon Rapids Church Part II

    Uncategorized

    Earlier today I posted pictures of the politically motivated signboard at the church that is just down the street from my house. Click here to review. Later in the day, after picking Julia up at the local Minnesotans United for All Families, where she’s been volunteering many hours a week, and dropping her off to be an Election Judge, on my way to Vote No Twice, I saw this:

    Coon Rapids, Minnesota

    This wonderful woman was standing out in the rain across from the largest Megachurch in the area and in front of my local Baptist church, right next to their sign board, on public property, with this home made sign. For context, here’s a shot from farther back:

    This woman is a hero!

    This all happened fairly quickly and we have local issues with train tracks and one way streets, so I zipped by her and went and voted, then rushed back to the scene, always staying under the speed limit and driving safely, and pulled into the church parking lot. I went over to her, asked permission to get the picture, thanked her for her service, and asked if I could get her a cup of coffee at the nearby Caribou. She declined the coffee … she lives very nearby and has some support. So, I took off.

    (Dear neighbor with sign, if you read this, that offer for a cup of coffee is permanent, any time. I live in the grayish townhouses you can see from 113th, the one with the “vote no” sign. Sadly, the only one.)

    And as I was taking off, I was accosted by a guy in a big-ass red pickup truck. He did not identify himself but I was left to assume he had something to do with the church. He pulled his truck over between me and my car and stared hard at me. So I went over to him.

    “Can I help you?” I said.

    “Did you know this is private property?”

    “I pulled into empty church parking lot so I didn’t have to pull over on the side of the road in the rain,” was my lame excuse.

    “Well, what really concerns me was the speed at which you pulled into the parking lot. There are children here and you …”

    “Are you done?” I interrupted. I was not going fast.

    “Ah, well, yes,” he replied.

    “Have a nice day.”

    Then I started snapping pictures of him and his truck as he drove away.

    Bye-bye, real-life concern troll. Have a nice day!

    Have you voted yet?

    Wonderful Life with the Elements

    Uncategorized, , ,

    Have ever really thought about the elements? Have you ever really asked questions about them? If you are some kind of scientist or science geek, you probably know a lot about them, and that could even be a disadvantage for you, in a sense. For instance, if you learned early on that elements were formed at certain points in time and in certain places (the big bang or later in stars, for most atoms) then the following question may not have occurred to you: “What happens when a bunch of Carbon atoms get old. Do they fall apart?” Also, a sense of purity may be something you understand but others with less knowledge may not fully grasp. Breathing in “balloon gas” (which has some helium in it) can make your voice sound funny. Totally emptying out your lungs of all air and then filling them full with pure helium could cause you to be dead. Purity matters.

    Every now and then you come across a book that takes the Periodic Table and transforms it into a learning experience about chemistry and stuff that can be really interesting. Wonderful Life with the Elements: The Periodic Table Personified is the latest effort I’m aware of to do that. This smallish, square book (read: Stocking Stuffer for your nerdy spouse or child) by Japanese artist Bunpei Yorifuji seems to follow a recent trend in books to be very quirky, perhaps to compete with on-line methods of accessing information. One method of getting chemistry across to people is to redo the iconography or the spatial metaphors of the Periodic Table. In this case, the elements are depicted as drawings of people who have various characteristics. You can look at a drawing and using what you know (using rather complex keys) infer stuff about the elements from the individual’s body, face, and clothing. A person standing there in their underwear may indicate an element useful in human nutrition. A person who appears to be dressed up in a robot suit is a human-made element, one that generally does not exist in nature, and so on.

    Hair or hat styles relate to elemental families, and faces vary on the bases of the element’s subatomic characteristics. The elements are standing on things that suggest stuff about their uses. So, for instance, you might have this:

    Gold

    Gold has a big long beard indicating that it was discovered in ancient times. The figure representing gold and gold itself are a bit hefty of mass. Gold sports the hair style of a transition metal, and appears to be wearing Carharts, suggesting a multiplicity of purposes. There is quite a bit more information than this in this one figure.

    The book comes with a nifty, full size fold out periodic table that I’m tempted to razor out and hang on my wall.

    Coon Rapids Baptist Church: Are they violating IRS law or not?

    Uncategorized, , ,

    I have no idea if the Coon Rapids Baptist Church, is a real church with tax exempt status, but let’s assume for the moment that they are. The question then would be, is this church jeopradizing their tax exempt status by taking and explicit stand on a certain issue and telling people how they should vote on it? Here are two photographs I snapped this morning:

    Sign in front of the Coon Rapids Baptist Church and Christian School, North Bound on Hanson Blvd, Coon Rapids, MN, on election day, 2012.
    Sign in front of Coon Rapids Baptist Church and Christian School, South Bound on Hanson Blvd, Coon Rapids, MN, on Election Day, 2012.

    Clearly the church is saying that people should vote a certain way and clearly this is being done at a time rather close to the election. But, is this a violation of church-state separation?

    Here is a document from the IRS (PDF file) that lays out the rules. Most of this is about candidates, not issues. Churches can take a stand on issues, but not if that stand links to candidates. So, for instance, a church taking an explicit anti-Obamacare position in the present election is probably violating IRS regulations. In Minnesota, the “Yes/No” vote being referred to here is an amendment to limit marriage to opposite sex couples, to be added the constitution. Almost every candidate has taken a stand on the issue, and DFLers (those are Minnesota Democrats) say “vote No” and Republicans say “vote Yes” pretty much down the line.

    Personally, I think they are probably not violating IRS rules, but I also think the IRS rules could be revised. I think churches should not take positions that tell people how to vote at all, on candidates, and on issues. What do you think?

    The chunky numbers that underlie electoral statistics

    Uncategorized

    I just wanted to show you this histogram. I love this histogram because it demonstrates the underlying chunkiness of the electoral college. This is not at all an uncommon phenomenon in nature and culture, even though we tend to conceptualize and model things as nice curvy well behaved lines.

    This also shows the underlying pattern from which people like Nate Silver get these percentages of who is likely to win. Each little chunkette (one electoral vote = one chunkette) of data on this histogram is a possible coin flip with a coin with two heads or two tails. You put all the biased coins in a bag, randomly pick one, and ask “does this coin have two heads or two tails?”

    The source of this histogram is here. Hat tip to commenter mdb.