What will Super Tuesday bring to the Republican Primary Process?

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Soon, we’ll know, but for now we can guess.

Primaries or caucuses will be hid in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia, and there is a whopping big chunk of Superdelegates up for graps as well.

The big races are Ohio because of its size and centrality, and Georgia because it is interesting, but they all really do count.

Romney and Santorum are about tied in Ohio, and their relative position has been a horserace, so this is not callable. Most recently, a small Santorum lead was erased in polls by Romney, and if there is any Romney-Mo, we can expect him to win. In any event, a Santorum win in Ohio is very very signficant for Santorum, and a small Romney win is nice for Romney.

Gingrich is way, way ahead in his home state, with Romney and Santorum in a horse race for second place, latest polls favoring Romney. For a while there it was looking like Gingrich woudl have a weak (but still first place) showing in Georgia, but his numbers have pulled ahead in recent days, mainly at the expense of Santorum. I’m predicting a strong Gingrich win, a fairly strong Romney second place, and a significant drop for Santorum in Georgia.

Romney and Santorum are also running neck and neck in Tennessee, but this time, with Gingrich at about the same level.
Do not be surprised if Santorum takes Tennessee. Santorum is not running in Virginia, where it is a Romney vs. Paul race, and Ron Paul is insignificant. Romney will take Virginia by a mile.

The other states are rather less well polled. Romney will win in Vermont. Ron Paul has been all over Idaho and North Dakota. Don’t be surprised if the outcome in one or both of those states favors Paul and/or Santorum, but these are Mormon-Heavy country and the Romney campaign is counting on this to deliver these states. Massachusetts is Romney’s other home state, and he’ll presumably win there.

In the end, Santorum and Romney will probably be able to stay in this race. I don’t understand why Gingrich is still campaigning, but he’ll drop out Wednesday and no, he won’t be a kingmaker. Ron Paul will never go away. And, it will take a few more weeks to sort out Santorum vs. Romney, and that is more than enough time for either one of them to shoot themselves in the foot a few times.

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2 thoughts on “What will Super Tuesday bring to the Republican Primary Process?

  1. Sounds about right, except that I am less confident than you of Gingrich bowing out in a timely fashion.

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