We are in the Primary Doldrums. For the last several days and the next several days, there is not too much happening, big gaps between the action. Wisconsin is important, and it is Tuesday, Then Wyoming by itself, then New York by itself, then a sort of Super Tuesday with several states.
As you know I’ve created a multivariable model that has a good record of predicting primary and caucus outcomes in the contests between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. For the rest of the primary season, this is what it looks like.
I used yellow highlighting to indicate who is expected to win the most delegates on each primary/caucus day. Sanders will do well in Wisconsin, tie (or maybe even better) in Wyoming, do well in Indiana, and on balance, do well on June 7th when there will be six contests at once including Pennsylvania. But while Sanders may win the day on three (or four) days, Clinton will win the day on five. In total, Clinton is predicted to take 886 delegates, and Sanders 790.
This is the distribution of cumulative delegates starting with now and moving across this range of primary dates, showing the evolution of the difference between the two candidates throughout.
On balance, Clinton will, according to this model, will widen her lead over Sanders. If Sanders does better than projected this gap will narrow, but he’ll have to do very well to close the gap.
According to the intertubes,
Wisconsin’s controversial law that limited the rights of public sector unions and sparked recall elections was struck down on Friday by a Wisconsin judge.
Republican Governor Scott Walker, who survived a recall election earlier this year that stemmed from passage of the collective bargaining law, said after the ruling that he was confident the state would ultimately prevail in an appeal.
“Sadly a liberal activist judge in Dane County wants to go backwards and take away the lawmaking responsibilities of the legislature and the governor,” Walker said in a statement.
Yes, yes, we are all ensaddened, Governor Walker. But not by your stupid law being struck down.
In any event, the issue is now in the courts. We shall see what happens.
[the judge] ruled that eliminating collective bargaining rights for municipal employees including teachers violated the workers’ right to free speech, association and equal protection.
He also ruled that the law’s requirement that Milwaukee city workers make pension contributions violated a home-rule provision in the state constitution.
Several provisions “single out and encumber the rights of those employees who choose union membership and representation solely because of that association” in violation of their free speech and association rights, Colas found.
Struck down on several accounts because of flagrant violation of the US constitution and other considerations. Those damn liberal judges.
Walker’s big mistake: Not first (somehow) making it so Unions could not use Lawyers.
This is the special primary for the Democrats (the Republicans have one too) in which voters will choose who will go up against Scott Walker, the hater-governor who is being recalled. The recall election will be next month.
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is in the lead in that primary and will likely take it. He is the guy who was defeated by Walker in the previous election for governor, in 2010. The margin then was about 5%. Continue reading Democratic Primary is Today in Wisconsin
The Government Accountability Board in Wisconsin voted unanimously to recall Governor Scott Walker following the submission of a petition with 900,000 signatures. (Only 540,208 signatures were required.)
Walker was targeted for recall after he pushed through a law last year that effectively ended collective bargaining rights for most state workers. It also forced the workers to contribute more to their pension and health care costs, which amounted to a cut in pay.
Walker told reporters he would be willing to mobilize the National Guard in order to address potential repercussions from unions.
720,000 signatures have been collected to recall Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Only 540,000 signatures were needed. The rest is, I suppose, a tip. Raw Story reports:
With Tuesday’s deadline fast approaching, The New York Times reports that Wisconsin’s activists are prepared to submit about 720,000 petition signatures, far surpassing the 540,000 needed to trigger a recall election later this year.
Before the election can proceed, the state’s election board will have to build a $100,000 database of registered voters and check each petition signature against the list. Assuming that more than 540,000 entries are valid, Walker will face the possibility of being only the third governor in U.S. history to be removed by recall election.
It will be interesting to see, if possible, how many petitions were faked. Remember a while back the Tea Party promised to do that? And if they did, it will be interesting to see if charges are filed.