Tag Archives: Santorum

Is Rick Santorum the “Come From Behind Kid”?

A large number of traffic accidents are being reported from eastern states as numerious NPR stations reported during the East Coast rush hour, that Santorum “hoped for a come from behind victory tonight!” Spit removal crews have been mobilized. It is quite a mess.

But alas, the climax of this particular primary battle will be delayed because there are widespread balloting problems in Illinois, where an important primary is being put to bed as we speak. According to the Washington Post, “About a quarter of the state’s counties were experiencing problems with their printed ballots, a Board of Elections official said, explaining they were too wide to fit…” Continue reading Is Rick Santorum the “Come From Behind Kid”?

A tale of two polls: Santorum may win Michigan Primary

Two different polls paint very different pictures for Tuesday’s primary in Michigan. The PPP Poll released February 26ths puts Romney ahead of Santorum and makes a very solid argument that Romney is ahead and that it will be difficult for Santorum to move enough voters into his camp to take the lead. The Mitchell Research poll, released on February 27th, makes a good argument that although Romney was ahead as of last Thursday, Santorum has in fact moved enough voters into his camp to be numerically ahead of Romney by 2% points in a poll with a 3.34% margin of error.

Let’s have a look at the details. Continue reading A tale of two polls: Santorum may win Michigan Primary

The State of the Republican Primaries

Let’s let the data speak for itself, as it were.

… starting out we had this …

Iowa: Romney Santorum
New Hampshire: Romney
South Carolina: Gingrich

Headlines: Romney winning
Reality: Three way horse race

… then we had this for a while …
Florida: Romney
Nevada: Romney
Colorado: Santorum
Minnesota: Santorum
Missouri: Santorum

Headlines: Romney Winning
Reality: Santorum has taken half the contests, Romney a close second

… right now this seems to be happening …
Maine: Romney Paul

Headlines: Romney may have a Santorum Problem
Reality: Uh huh.

… the near future …
Arizona: Romney ahead in polls, Santorum closing in fast, Gingrich becoming irrelevant
Michigan: Santorum maintains a firm lead over Romney

Headlines?: Ohio is where the real contest will be!
Reality?: Are we having fun yet?

… the distant future …

Ohio: Santorum leading
General Election: Santorum and Romney equally matched against Obama

Headlines?: Gingrich and Paul leave race, Bachmann reenters Presidential Contest?!!?
Reality?: Reality hardly applies, thought, does it?

Polling from RCP

The Huntsman-Santorum Effect: Will Republicans Become Self Aware?

The New Hampshire Primaries are today, and Mitt Romney seems to be holding his strong lead, though there are some interesting changes in the numbers. But that is utterly irrelevant. Let me explain why: Continue reading The Huntsman-Santorum Effect: Will Republicans Become Self Aware?

From Iowa to New Hampshire. What to look for and what it means. (Updated)

We’ll get to the big picture in just a moment, but first a fair well to our home-girl, Michele. Today’s headline could have been Bachmann Moves Ahead “Full Steam” after Iowa Victory … … by the other guy” but in the end, she appears to have dropped out.

It is … difficult to see such a path for Bachmann, given her last-place finish and the fact that her campaign strategy had been premised on a strong launch in Iowa, the state where she was born and where she won the GOP straw poll in Ames in August.

At first her campaign manager, Keith Nahigian, said Bachmann is going ahead “full steam.”*

But hours later she dropped out of the race. And speaking of the race, let’s have a quick look at the final tallies:

Mitt Romney 30,015 (25%)
Rick Santorum 30,007 (25%)
Ron Paul 26,219 (21%)
Newt Gingrich 16,251 (13%)
Rick Perry 12,604 (10%)
Michele Bachmann 6,073 (5%)

John Huntsman also relieved a few votes, so technically, he came in last behind Michele. (See this insightful analysis of the numbers by Pharngula’s PZ Myers.)

And now, the meaning of it all… Continue reading From Iowa to New Hampshire. What to look for and what it means. (Updated)