Chantal, Welcome to Storm World

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Chantal is the next name in line to be use for an Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane name. I’m going to go out on a limb (where I will be duly chastised by my friends and colleagues who are tropical storm experts or meteorologists), and say that a storm currently brewing in the Caribbean has a very good chance of becoming Chantal.

Right now the National Hurricane Center is saying that [al952019], sitting right now leewaard of the Lesser Antilles, has a 10% chance of formation into an actual named storm over the next two days (i.e., it won’t) and a 20% chance of doing so over the next 3 days.

About half of the usual Atlantic hurricane models have not put out estimates of intensity or location, but the few that have show a pretty good chance of this storm reaching an intensity of about 40KT or more at 48+ hours. After that, the models vary as to whether the weather flat-lines, declines, or goes up in intensity. To become a “named storm” (and that matters, especially to insurance people) the storm has to get to 35KT. SO, I’m thinking this system is our Chantal.

More importantly, the various models all agree on this. As a giant wet spot, an annoyingly vigorous low pressure system, or as a named storm, Chantal (or would-be-Chantal) is going to affect the Caribbean islands. Might go through Puerto Rico, might stay south of the Greater Antilles (but look out Jamaica) and hit the Yucatan on the way to the Gulf, or something in between. I don’t think this is an anything-can-happen situation. I think this is your-Great-Aunt-Tillie-is-going-to-get-soaked situation.

I post this here our of bravado. I will follow the course of the storm and revel in the greatness of my prediction over the next 10 days or so. Or, possibly, delete this post like nothing happened if, indeed, nothing happens.

Stay tuned.

Here is Chantal now. Note the big giant blob comming off the coast of West Africa. Dorian?

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2 thoughts on “Chantal, Welcome to Storm World

  1. Chantal has not been used as an Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane name.

    Are you sure? I remember Mark Whittington, whose GF at the time was named Chantal, being much amused by the headline “Thousands flee Chantal’s savage fury.”

    1. Thanks for pointint that out. I had been looking at a list that said “Chantal (unused)” and thought that meant it was unused. The list meant it was unused so far this year.

      There have been many Chantals. Six, to be exact in the Atlantic. 1989 and 2001 were semi-bad ones (cat 1 in 1989 and mostly a tropical storm in 2001) because the hit stuff.

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