I have not updated my model for predicting primary outcomes in the Democratic contest, but since the last few predictions were very accurate, I don’t feel the need to do so. However, I will before the California primary, just in case.
Meanwhile, my model suggests the following for today’s primaries.
Kentucky should be nearly a tie, though my model suggests that Sanders will get one more delegate than Clinton (Clinton: 27, Sanders: 28).
The model also suggests that Sanders will win in Oregon, Clinton: 24 and Sanders: 37.
There is very little polling in Kentucky, but the latest poll from early March has Clinton slightly ahead. I expect that to be wrong.
Kentucky will be interesting. Clinton has been campaigning fairly strongly there, with TV ads and a lot of hand shaking. Sanders has been campaigning very little there lately, but he was campaigning heavily up until just a couple of days ago.
In Oregon, there is also very little in the way of polls, but the one poll I’ve seen, from just a week ago, has Clinton winning handily.
You will remember that my model is based mainly on ethnicity, and Oregon is a white state, thus the predicted Sanders win. But Oregon is also way different than other states. Politically it is more liberal, and they vote by mail. Every resident of the state is automatically registered. So, Oregon may be the best state in the US to represent a truly democratic and open process. Some say this arrangement favors Sanders, but in fact, it seems to favor neither candidate. So, Oregon will be interesting.
Results will be posted here when they are available. The Oregon results will not be available until really late, maybe Wednesday some time.
With 99.8% of the vote counted, Hillary Clinton is being called the winner of the Kentucky Primary, but about 1,800 votes.
Meanwhile, in Oregon …
My model, which is generally pretty accurate, predicted a Sanders win, and that happened.
But Sanders did not do as well as he should have. Here’s the numbers with about 77% counted.
This may change as more votes are counted. And, the numbers are not really all that far off. But, Sanders, in the end, will take fewer delegates from Oregon to the national convention than I was thinking he would, and he needed more than I was thinking to have any kind of chance of closing the gap.
It will be interesting to see if, when I re-run the model with the latest info, the Oregon gap between expected and actual closes up. (Since the Oregon data will be in the model, it will close up, but by how much?)
Oregon might have some explaining to do, and that will probably be in the framework of their new and unique way of voting. This could be quite interesting.