Monthly Archives: August 2012

Breaking: Arctic Sea Ice Reaches Historic Minimum

According to data just now available, the total surface area of the summertime Arctic Sea that is covered in ice has reached the lowest point ever recorded.

Every (northern) summer the sea ice in the Arctic melts to some degree, reaching a minimum around the middle of September. Over the last several years, the amount of ice at this minimal point has been lower than previously recorded. Accurate records go back only a few decades, so this shift in ice cover reflects only the most recent period of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).

Today, I got an email from my colleague John Abraham (the John Abraham from this podcast) noting that this morning’s data indicated that the ice had reached this minimum extent, as shown in this graph from the Arctic Sea Ice Monitor: Continue reading Breaking: Arctic Sea Ice Reaches Historic Minimum

Meteorological Items of Interest (including a hurricane)

Soon To Be Hurricane Isaac

Isaac is a tropical storm currently located south of Puerto Rico and heading for Haiti and Cuba. After rolling over those land areas for several hours, and reaching the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Isaac is expected to become a modest hurricane, likely to menace the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle and nearby Mississippi. Conditions are actually right for Isaac to become a fairly strong storm, even though at the moment it is very poorly organized.

Arctic Cyclone

The other storm of interest is now historical, but worth a mention. This was the arctic cyclone that occurred over the Arctic earlier this month. I mentioned it before in relation to sea ice melting, but I just noticed a nice writeup about it on the NSICD web site: Continue reading Meteorological Items of Interest (including a hurricane)

“Atheist Voices of Minnesota” on Atheists Talk Radio

Atheist Voices of Minnesota is a unique book. Other books on atheism are mostly philosophical or political. They are written by people who derive their income from their writing. They argue for atheism, or at least for secularism, and tell atheists how to be atheists. They are often specifically about religion.

Atheist Voices of Minnesota is none of those things. It is instead a collection of personal writings, talking about the effects of atheism on our lives and on our values. It covers voices who are not usually included in atheist projects. And it is receiving rave reviews.

This Sunday, we are doing an unusual show to talk about this unusual book. Nine of the contributors will gather in the studio to. Join us to hear:

  • Bill Lehto (editor)
  • George Kane
  • Jill Carlson
  • Ryan Bolin
  • Stephanie Zvan
  • Eric Jayne
  • James Zimmerman
  • Michelle Huber
  • Kim Socha

They will be talking about how the book was made and their contributions to it.

Get the details here.

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and The Biggest Blogathon Evah!

There is a relationship between how much CO2 is in the atmosphere and sea level. More CO2 means a warmer atmosphere and that means less long term (glacial) ice and that means more sea water. Also, a warmer planet means the ocean water is warmer, and thus it expands, and that also contributes to sea level rise.

However, there is something of a falsehood generated when we read estimates of sea level rise. The straight forward link between CO2 and sea level (via heating oceans and melting ice) leads to estimates that are very small for sea level rise. We see things like “1.8 mm per year” which would be a very small number that does not seem like much of a threat. This is a falsehood for several reasons. The variation in sea level linked to a given level of CO2 is potentially great, in the order of meters; one level of CO2 could produce a wide range of sea levels, with a range of variation way bigger than the total sea level rise with annual increments like 1.8 mm. Sea level rise of seemingly small amounts, i.e. several centimeters, produce lateral (transgressive) shifts in the sea of potentially much greater amounts. This transgression can be fast, or it can be longer term. We are still experiencing the transgression from the post-glacial sea level rise that slowed to nearly a halt thousands of years ago. Meanwhile, coastal storms can be much more likely to flood inland with higher seas. All this means that the time scale of effects varies from days (storms) to decades (barrier beach erosion) to centuries (erosion against more stable coastal areas made of consolidated sediment) to millennia (erosion of major glacial features) to time periods that transcend climate change (erosion of continental bedrock). The scale of past sea level change is enormous, larger than any possible future sea level rise, but the “worst case” scenarios for the future are both dramatic and not all that unlikely. All this comes from taking a paleo-perspective on sea level change. In short, when we paleo-people hear estimates of a few millimeters a year of sea level rise over a century’s time, we laugh. Nervously.

I’ve written up a much more extensive analysis of sea level rise from a paleo-perspective as part of the Daily Kos Climate Change SOS Blogathon. You must click here and read my post and make comments on it or the Daily Kos will totally fire me. What are you waiting for?

Meanwhile, here is the list of the other amazing and wonderful blog posts that make up this Blogathon so far. I’ll update it to include all the posts later:

Climate Change Blogathon at Daily Kos!

so far…

Should they allow pigs at the State Fair, and what if they do?

The State Fair is about to start up here in Minnesota, and the top epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota has very clearly stated that the swine should be excluded this year in order to avoid swine to human transmission of a flu virus that has been showing up in increasing numbers lately. I’ve blogged about this before, and here is an update with new numbers. Also, I’ll address a few questions I’ve heard asked.

How many people have been affected with the new Influenza A (H3N2) Variant Viruses (“H3N2v”)?

The CDC reports that 12 people were known to have been affected in 2011, and 225 in 2012, most of which have been affected in the last several weeks, indicating a sudden outbreak. However, that number is a minimum as more cases are known than reported in that CDC report. We may have one or two cases in Minnesota that have not been included yet.

Who is getting this flu?

There are two categories of people that make up most of those affected: 1) People who work with swine and 2) People who came into contact with swine at county or state fairs or similar venues.

Among those who are getting the flue, more may be children. It is thought that perhaps many adults have a immunity to this variety that children don’t have.

Does the new swine flu pass from human to human?

Yes and no. There are a handful of cases of humans having this flu who probably got it from someone who, in turn, got it from a pig. However, there is not a pattern of sustained human-to-human transmission at this time. However, that can change. The new flu variant has a mutation that is believed to be helpful (to the virus) in human-to-human transmission, and the fact that there are a couple of cases of this shows that is is possible. The reasons that the normal flu season occurs in the Northern Hemisphere during winter may relate to factors that enhance human-to-human transmission, and those factors to not pertain at this time since it is still summer. It is possible that this flu would spread more readily among humans as conditions change. Also, flu viruses change over time to become more or less likely to spread. This flu must be watched carefully.

People are saying that this is a mild flu. Is that true?

No, that is absolutely not true. The flu appears to be an average flu, like any year’s typical seasonal flu, in how icky it is to get it. Rumors that it is a “mild” flu probably come from the fact that it is not a killer flu, like some are that jump boundaries between species. Which may relate to the next question…

Where does this flu come from?

A simple version is that over several years, it started in humans, infected pigs (and went away in humans) and is now re-infecting humans after a period of time of not being able to make that jump. Influenza is like that. This also explains the fact that some adults seem immune to the flu; they had this one (well, one kinda like it anyway) already, or an earlier vaccination is helping.

Should they allow pigs at the Minnesota State Fair?

Personally, I think it is overcautious to disallow pigs. But I think we should be overcautious and disallow them. I agree with Michael Osterholm that this is “an unprecedented situation globally.”

What about taking precautions like washing your hand after petting the pig?

Well, yes, please do wash your hands after petting the pig, but it won’t help much. The flu is probably airborne. Also, officials say they will keep the sick looking pigs sequestered or send them home or something, but there is evidence that pigs with this flu don’t necessarily look sick. In short, the precautions that are being shuggested by State Fair officials and the State Health Department are not expected to be effective.

Are you, Greg, going to the State Fair?

Of course. But I will not be visiting the Big Pig or his little friends. Nor will anyone else in my family. We will not, however, be avoiding swine entirely. If there is Bacon on a Stick, that will be good. Or corn dogs. I believe they include pig.

Background information:

Mimicry

Mimicry is when one species has changed over time via Natural Selection to look like another species. Three commonly defined forms of mimicry are:

  • Batesian mimicry, named after Henry Walter Bates, a 19th century Natural Historian, where one species is poisonous or otherwise dangerous to a predator, and another species takes evolutionary advantage of that by looking like it but not actually being poisonous;
  • Müllerian mimicry, named after Fritz Müller who worked at about the same time as Bates, where two species that are poisonous or otherwise bad for predators evolve to look like each other thus shortening the learning curve for the predators; and
  • Agressive mimicry, not named after anyone, in which a predator mimics its prey to better sneak up on or ambush it.

There is not necessarily a clear distinction between Batesian and Müllerian mimicry in all cases. Also, although the statements above are generally considered true (they could be from a glossary of a biology textbook) they are misleading, because the relationship is not always between predator and prey. For instance, a European Cuckoo looks like a bird eating raptor, and thus scares off the host birds in who’s nest they wish to lay eggs. There is no predator eating something and there is no poison, but it is considered Batesian mimicry because one species is imitating another and thus fooling a third into reacting by aversion or avoidance with the expectation of something nasty happening. In general, it is better to think of inter- and intra-species relationships that are potentially shaped by Natural Selection in more abstract and general terms. Putting it this way, we could define the first two types of mimicry as selection operating on one species (the “mimic) to appear to the senses of a “dupe” be a member of a third species (the “model”) with whom interaction will confer a negative effect on fitness on the “dupe” and whereby the mimicry will confer a positive effect on fitness of the “mimic.” In the case of pure Batesian mimicry, the model and the mimic are distinct, while in Müllerian, the model and the mimic share the role. The effect on the model may be positive or it may not be.

There is a bit of an irony working here. In order for mimicry to work there has to be either a deeply built-in genetically determined avoidance mechanism (something that says “orange butterflies are always poisonous”), which is highly unlikely for various reasons, or there has to be learning on the part of the predator. The predator must learn by trial and error that certain species taste bad, are poisonous, fight back, or whatever. This means, however, that in order for mimicry to work, the strategy of mimicry also has to be vulnerable, because just as the mimic can dupe the dupe into learning the wrong thing, the dupe can smarten up. Taking this a step further, species that can learn stuff may end up, depending on evolutionary context, becoming a species that is really good at learning stuff.

Another consequence of the dupe learning to avoid the model and mimic morph is that both the model and the mimic are influenced in their fitness by numbers. If there are exactly two individuals, a model and a mimic, that will ever be encountered by a predator (and eaten on the spot) and if the predator (the dupe) learns in one trial to never eat that kind of thing again, then there is a 50–50 chance for either mimic or model of being eaten first. Note that if the mimic is eaten first, then the model may well be eaten because the predator did not learn to avoid food that looks like these particular individuals. If, however, there are a gazillion models and only a few mimics, then the mimics will do pretty well because most predators it encounters will have already learned to avoid individuals that look like model or mimic.

Also, consider each node of the mimicry triangle in relation to the selective forces working on it, in relation to all the variables. For in stance, a model species might suffer a fitness consequence if there are too many mimics, because predators may actually learn to like the morphotype that has been conferred on it by Natural Selection. Mimics would not gain as much if they were too common as well, but that sets up a tension between the benefits of reproducing a lot and the cost of being common. Also, one might ask why mimics don’t just make their own poison or other nasty bits. There must be a cost of doing so that is being avoided.

There is a case that I’ve written up here of a bird mimic (one of the afore mentioned cuckoos) that has two morphs mimicking a predator; the idea here is that polymorphism (having several different appearances) helps with this problem of being too common, or of the dupe learning too much. Also, the dupe species seem to do a lot of social learning, which can really mess up your strategy if you are a cuckoo. Go have a look.

Agressive mimicry is a totally different thing that we won’t talk about here except to mention that humans are one species that does this, and that it is a key feature in the biologically underrated novels by Mary Doria Russell, Children of God and The Sparrow. In those novels, there are two intelligent life forms on another planet, and one is a predator the other prey. They look a lot alike, and this is attributed to agressive mimicry by the predaceous species.

By the way, Henry Walter Bates was an interesting guy. His BD dates are 1825–1892, so he overlapped a great deal with Darwin (1809–1882). Bates worked with A.R. Wallace in the Amazon. Wallace, who is often viewed as under appreciated in the blinding light of Charles Darwin, lost all of his Amazon biological material in a shipwreck. Bates, on the other hand, supplied the scientific community with samples representing over 14,000 species, most insects. He discovered about 8,000 new species.

Your chance of getting pregnant if raped…

… goes down, compared to other forms of insemination, because “the female body has ways to shut that down.” That’s according to Missouri Congressman Todd Akin. But this only works, according to him, if the rape is “legitimate.” From this we can easily develop a sort of Witch Hunt method to determine if a woman accusing a man of rape was actually, “legitimately” raped or if she’s faking it. If she becomes pregnant from the rape, the rape did not happen.

Is this clear?

OK, now that we have that straight, allow me to bring out this one piece of data I thought I’d never have use of. It is a very limited piece of data, not very useful for a large number of reasons. The question at hand can be divided into two parts: 1) What is the chance of a given intromissive internally insemnating sexual event leading to a pregnancy in a woman not on birth control of average fecundity? Then, 2) Does this probability go down, as the good Congresman claims, or does it stay the same.

The answer to the first question is that it is not terribly high. We are not a one-copulation=one baby species. It takes a bunch of tangos to turn out a tyke, on average (but statistics is NOT a birth control method!). As to the second question, it turns out that according to certain data it actually goes up. It is reasonable to suggest that the chance of a single copulation leading to pregnancy if that copulation is rape is about double the overall average. Maybe.

This has been discussed by Thornhill and Palmer, authors of the controversial book “A Natural History of Rape: Biological Bases of Sexual Coercion” and subsequent to the storm of debate that arose from that it has been looked at more carefully and a little bit verified (see this).

I can very easily suggest explanations for this and I can also cast more doubt on the studies. First, the doubt. We have no idea what the actual relationship between having sex and having babies is. One would think we would know, but we don’t. Sure, sex leads to babies and all that, but how many sperm, or how many ejaculations, or whatever, does it take before a single sperm is allowed access to the ovum leading to a pregnancy? Scientifically speaking the research needed to answer this question has not been done. There are no controlled studies in which a sufficient sample of subjects across a range of fertilities (and varying in other appropriate factors) repeatedly have sex with everything carefully measured and controlled. Not one study has done this. I don’t expect there to be one any time soon. Our estimates of fecundity are based on reported data, vague estimates, and a lot of thumb sucking. So, when we have a couple of rape-related studies that show a higher pregnancy rate than background, unless it was a lot higher, we would need to take that with a grain of salt.

But if there really is a higher chance of pregnancy resulting from rape, this still may not mean much. There are a number of reasons this could happen, some of which are discussed in the above mentioned book. One very distinct possibility is that rapists are selecting victims somehow, perhaps with their Darwinian wiles, as it were, or perhaps for purely random reasons, who are slightly more fecund than the larger sample from which the baseline statistic is calculated. In any case, the difference is not large.

But, there it is also not lower. The chance of pregnancy from what the Good Congressman calls “legitimate rape” … a term that will surely live in infamy … is not lower. It might be higher. But it is not lower. The man is an ignorant fool. He is wrong.

Here he is being wrong:

Hattip Kent Jones.

Added: Here’s an idea, ask that this dude be relieved of his duties on the House Science and Technology Committee. Which, amazingly, he is on.

It worked!

Never mind the heat shield, the parachute, the thruster-guided landing, all of that. Curiosity went to Mars to carry out experiments using Big Science Gear and now it is confirmed that at least one set of gear works!

The method is laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy, in which very high power but short burst laser light is focused on a thing, and the matter the thing is made up of is drastically altered in such a way that it gives of a signal that can be picked up by instruments also pointed at the thing, to produce a spectrosopic signature.

There is no useful analysis of the data yet, but NASA scientists seem to think the laser blasting and analysis of the rock, known as Coronation (yeah, they name the rocks) by the ChemCam devise worked better than expected. This first effort was a combined test and calibration. Stay tuned for science.

Details here.

Siege of Stars by Henry Gee

Henry Gee, the Nature editor, has a novel in three parts … Siege of Stars: Book One of The Sigil Trilogy … that I found hit home very closely like maybe Henry was me reincarnated and then transported back through time so his, er, our timeline would cross. This is not surprising since Henry and I have had overlapping interests in science for several decades, so his novel references a sense of understanding of the landscape, the kind of thing a geologist or archaeologist achieves either over time or because of an innate capacity. One of his characters is such an archaeologist. Another overlap is our experience observing academic culture. We tend to breed within (“we” meaning academics, not Henry and me specifically), and sometimes we form teams where thinking, understanding, and explaining are done as a compound organism. Also, and this may be too much of an inside reference, Book 1 at least is pretty much Cenozoic, which is cool.

Siege of Stars: Book One of The Sigil Trilogy is Book 1 of the Sigil Trilogy. It is a story about how the universe, and Earth, got to the present state, which turns out to be a rather dramatic historical set of events involving improbable beings doing large scale things in large scale, and Scotch. Siege is compelling, grandiose, and breathtaking in its spacetime and its characters are intriguing, personal, and complex. It has a classic parallel story structure which enhances the book’s page turning quotient. This book of Henry’s is going to be high on the charts. Oh, and there is a hint of Kilgore Trout. Not enough that you’d notice it and entirely confined to the plot.

I recommend you read it as soon as it is available. You might be able to get an advanced copy here.

Henry Gee is the author of several books including The Science of Middle-Earth: Explaining The Science Behind The Greatest Fantasy Epic Ever Told!, In Search of Deep Time: Beyond the Fossil Record to a New History of Life, and editor of Nature’s Futures column, which is anthologized here.

Liberals like "green energy" and Republicans hate it. Right?

Not so fast …

  • 85% of Americans want more funding for research renewable energy such as wind power.
  • In Iowa, a state leading in wind energy production, 85% of voters view tax credits for wind production as positive.
  • Also in Iowa, 57% of all voters would oppose a presidential candidate who wanted to end tax credits for wind energy, and 41% of GOP voters would oppose a Republican candidate who wanted to end tax credits for wind energy.
  • During Romney’s overseas trip, his campaign announced that “He will allow the wind credit to expire, end the stimulus boondoggles, and create a level playing field on which all sources of energy can compete on their merits.”

?

Related Links:


Photo by dannyakright

Climate Change: Listen to the experts

You all know about CONvergence, and by now you’ve probably heard about or even seen or heard on the Internet one or more of the many panels that were done this year. But those recordings were impromptu and while useful, they are unpolished.

Also, the panels at CONvergence themselves tend to be informal, unmoderated or moderated by helpful volunteers, and everyone has a hangover. People attending the panels drew on important expertise and experience, but most panels were casual, with little preparation.

But a couple of the panels were different, most notably two panels on Climate Change. These panels were designated early on in the CONvergence planning as being key, and a lot of attention was given to them. The panelists were all experienced speakers on the topic and knew long in advance what the topic of discussion would be. Most of us communicate on a daily basis about climate change related issues, and have known each other and worked with each other on science communication for the last few years. Desiree Schell was flown down from Canada to moderate the panels. I spent a fair amount of effort outlining possible topics and running this outline past the panelists for their contribution, and we passed this information on to Desiree, who then worked out an interview and moderation plan. In other words, more hours of work were spent in the background prior to the panels than the two hours of public discussion that they turned into.

Then, we had two hours of panel discussion and questions from the audience. Professional level equipment was used to record the panels.

THEN, KO Myers, the producer of Skeptically Speaking, took this two hours of panel discussion and locked himself in the studio with it and converted or senseless yammering it into a final finished product of the highest quality.

And all this was done for you, dear reader, so that you could learn all about climate change.

CLICK HERE to access the podcast.

Books mentioned in the podcast:

Before the Lights Go Out: Conquering the Energy Crisis Before It Conquers Us

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America