This isn’t even in the advisories and discussions yet on the Hurricane Center site, but they are calling Isaac a hurricane. Here’s a recent snapshot:
The current track puts Isaac just southwest of New Orleans with the heaviest winds and storm surge along the outer reaches of the delta and Lake Pontchartrain.
Expect a storm surge in Southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi east of where the landfall occurs of 6-12 feet, with diminishing storm surge reaching as far as the Florida West Coast. Rainfall will be between 7 and 14 inches across a large area, with isolated areas being potentially much more. Sustained winds of 70 mph and more, up to 110 mph, will affect coastal areas. Isaac is a Category I hurricane.
I am very sorry, but it is hard for me to feel too badly about Randy Lee Tenley getting killed on Highway 93 on Sunday night in Montana. I do, however, feel badly for his family (if he has one) and for the two teenagers who hit him with their cars. A 15 year old driving down the highway at night hit him first, which caused some swerving around of various vehicles, and that’s when a car driven by a 17 year old ran him clean over.
Randy Lee Tenley had dressed himself up in a “Ghillie Suit” which is a form of camouflage used by snipers and other soliders so that they look like a bush. Standing up and walking around in such a thing makes you look like bigfoot. But, the point of a Ghillie Suit is to disuse the visibility of the lines you would normal make (our eyes are good at following lines) so that you blend in, or, essentially, disappear. So, when you walk out into traffic in the middle of the night wearing a Ghillie Suit, you look like nothing and some kids driving down the road who did not need to have killing someone be part of their lives forever run your sorry ass right over.
Isaac is still not a hurricane. It will be one within 24 hours. Right? Right?
Either way, Isaac is big, wet, and windy and long before it makes landfall it will start to cause flooding and wind damage ashore, within the next 24 hours or so. There is a pretty good chance that the storm will be upgraded to hurricane status just before that. Maybe. Well, frankly, I no longer trust Isaac so I’m not making any commitments. I’m tired of these relationships when the other person storm never does what they are expected to do.
Lately the problem has been dry air intruding into the storm, which interferes with the process of getting all round and organized and stuff.
The track has been adjusted slightly to the west. At this point, details matter a great deal. If the center of the storm shifts far enough to the west, a severe storm surge may be avoided for Lake Pontchartrain. Yesterday, the predicted track (and this is just an estimate) went right through NOLA, now it goes just to the west. The big lake is to the east.