Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans…. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the … IPCC … Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
Most of the available data are concentrated in North America and Europe. Even so, the data analyzed used nearly 30,000 sets of data documented in about eighty studies, addressing the years 1970 to 2004.The study involved dividing the planet into observation units (cells) and recording temperature changes and environmental effects in those units. The following is part of one of the graphics supplied with the study. Pinkish colored cells have warmed, blue have cooled, and the whitish and yellowish cells have changed only a little or not at all (yellow = a little warming).The main outcome of this report is to make clear the idea that the effects of global warming are not something of the future. While future impacts are of course likely, there have already been significant impacts. The distribution of permafrost and its very significant effects are well documented, for instance.
Documentation of observed changes in physical and biological systems in tropical and subtropical regions is still sparse. These areas include Africa, South America, Australia, Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean and some regions of the Pacific. One reason for this lack of documentation might be that some of these areas do not have pronounced temperature seasons, making events such as the advance of spring phenology less relevant. Other possible reasons for this imbalance are a lack of data and published studies, lag effects in responses, and resilience in systems. Improved observation networks are urgently needed to enhance data sets and to document sensitivity of physical and biological systems to warming in tropical and sub-tropical regions, where many developing countries are located.
Rosenzweig, C., Karoly, D., Vicarelli, M., Neofotis, P., Wu, Q., Casassa, G., Menzel, A., Root, T.L., Estrella, N., Seguin, B., Tryjanowski, P., Liu, C., Rawlins, S., Imeson, A. (2008). Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 453(7193), 353-357. DOI: 10.1038/nature06937NASA Press Release