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Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Arctic Sea Ice extent continues to be a problem. This year, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, ARctic Sea ice reached its lowest extent this year on September 17th, which is about the sixth lowest extent on record, following a multi-year trend of decline. There is variation from year to year. This year’s minimum was almost exactly the same as last years. With the exception of 2001, minimum extent has been below the climatalogical average every year since 1998.

Dana Nuccitelli has a post on this with excellent discussion and some nice graphics, and he has also produced a new version of the animated “How ‘Skeptics’ View Arctic Sea Ice Decline” graphic, which I reproduce here:

ArcticEscalator500

WordPress 4.0

Just installed WordPress 4.0.  I’ve never had a WordPress installation or upgrade on this blog go well. This one went fine, no apparent difficulties.  I just pressed the update button and it updated.  I’d been putting it off because my prior experiences had been so bad.

I’m not sure it is working as advertised.  The annoying web editing scrolling fiasco that is WordPress or any browser based editor is still the way it always has been despite the video WordPress shows me when it upgrades saying otherwise. So, I’m not sure what to do about that. But, it did not break, so that’s good.

Here’s the video on WordPress 4.0:

 

Ingredients of the all natural banana

I have mixed feelings about this. It could be a snobby chemist being all “without chemicals life itself would be impossible” and at the same time disrespecting the general public’s desire to have labels on the crap they sell us in stores, or it could be an honest and fun attempt to actually point out the chemicals in a banana (and other fruit). The guy’s site is generally pretty good though, lots of resources for teachers. Just gotta keep an eye on those chemists. If you know what I mean.

(I know, the pineapple is depicted, not the banana. Just go see the site you’ll understand.)

Sins of Our Fathers, a New Novel by Shawn Otto

Sins of Our Fathers, by Shaw Otto, is coming out shortly but can be preordered.

JW, protagonist, is a flawed hero. He is not exactly an anti-hero because he is not a bad guy, though one does become annoyed at where he places his values. As his character unfolds in the first several chapters of Shawn Otto’s novel, Sins of Our Fathers, we like him, we are worried about him, we wonder what he is thinking, we sit on the edge of our proverbial seats as he takes risk after risk and we are sitting thusly because we learn that he does not have a rational concept of risk. We learn that his inner confusion about life arises from two main sources: the dramatic difference between his temperament and upbringing on one hand and the life he ended up with on the other, and from unthinkable tragedy he has suffered. And so it goes as well with the other hero of the book, Johnny Eagle, who is a flawed, almost Byronic antagonist. Flawed because he is not the bad guy yet is an antagonist, Byronic because of his pride. There is also a troubled young man, a full blown antagonist we never come close to liking, and a horse.

SinsOfOurFathersWhen I moved to Minnesota from the East, I quickly encountered “The Indian Problem.” Not my words; that is what people called it. Very rarely major news, but still always a problem, the concept includes the expected litany. Poverty, fights over spear fishing rights, casinos and fights over off-reservation gambling, and the usual racism. I lived near the “Urban Res” but was told never to call it that. Doing some historic archaeology in Minneapolis I came across a hostess, of the first hotel built in the city, who had written elaborate stories of Indian attacks in South Minneapolis, part of the Indian Problem, after which she and her hotel gave refuge to the victims. None of which ever actually happened. I read about trophy hunting by the farmers in the southern part of the state, who took body parts from the Native Americans executed as part of the Sioux Uprising, and heard rumors that some of those parts were still in shoe boxes in some people’s closets.

Later I married into a family with a cabin up north. I remember passing Lake Hole-In-The-Day on the way up to the cabin, and wondering what that meant — was a “Hole in the day” like a nap, or break, one takes on a hot lazy afternoon? And the cabin was an hour or so drive past that lake. Many months later, I did some research and discovered two amazing facts. First, Hole-In-The-Day was the name of two major Ojibway Chiefs, father and son, both of whom were major players in the pre-state and early-state histories of the region, of stature and importance equalling or exceeding any of the white guys, like Snelling, Cass, Ramsey, after which counties, cities, roads, and other things had been named. But no one seemed to know Hole-In-The-Day. It was just a lake with a funny sounding name like most of the other lakes. The other thing I learned was downright shocking: The cabin to which we have driven many summer weekends is actually on an Indian reservation, as is the nearby town with the grocery store, ice cream shop, and Internet. On the reservation, yes, but not near any actual Indians. So, I could tell you that I spend many weeks every summer on an Indian Reservation up north, and it would not be a lie. Except the part about it being a lie.

Otto’s book pits the white, established and powerful, Twin Cities based banking industry against an incipient Native bank and the rest of the reservation. The story is a page turner, but I don’t want to say how so, because I don’t want to spoil any of it for you. I am not a page-turner kind of guy. I am a professional writer, so therefore I’m a professional reader. I can put a book down at any point no matter what is happening in order to shift gears to some other task awaiting my attention. But I certainly turned the pages in Sins of Our Fathers. The most positive comment one can make about a piece of writing is probably “this made me want more.” That happens at the end of every chapter in Otto’s novel.

But just as important as Sins of Our Fathers being a very very good book, which it is, it also addresses the Indian Problem. It does not matter if you are in, of, or familiar with Minnesota. The theme is American, and I use that word in reference to geography and not nationality, through and through. Everybody has an Indian Problem, especially Indians. Tension, distrust, solace and inspiration in modernized tradition, internal and external, are real life themes and Otto addresses them fairly, clearly, and engagingly. “Fathers” is plural for a reason, a reason you can guess.

It is important that you know that Sins of our Fathers is not Minnesota Genre though it is set here; it is not Native American Relations and Culture Genre though that is in the book. It is action, mystery, adventure, white knuckle, engaging, well-paced, and extremely well written. There are aspects of this writing that recommend this book as an exemplar in plot development, character construction, dialog and inner dialog, narrative distance, and descriptive technique.

Sins of Our Fathers is Shawn Otto’s first novel (but not his first book).

Shawn Otto is the founder of Science Debate. He is a science communicator and advocate. He is also a film maker, and among other things wrote the screenplay for the award winning movie “House of Sand and Fog.”

A glornififoov asks about planetary extinction.

“It’s called the Mars Rule.”

“Mars?”

“Yes, Mars. After the planet. Earthlings. Earth is a planet orbiting Sol A2234-332N. Dead planet now but that is where Earthlings are from. Mars is next to Earth.”

“A moon?”

“No, a planet, next orbit over. Can’t remember if it is closer or farther from its Sol. Anyway, doesn’t matter. Earthlings visited Mars and after about 20 years of poking around discovered that full blown life had evolved there and gone extinct. Aeons earlier.”

“So the Mars Rule is planetary extinction? It thought that was called the Koch Effect.”

“Ha. Funny you should say that, because Koch Syndrome, not ‘effect,’ you had that wrong. Koch syndrome was also named by Earthlings. And it is related.”

“Ah, right, I remember that now. Koch Effect.”

“Right. But the Mars Rule is different. Mars is smaller than Earth. According to the Mars Rule the total time frame from the origin of a planet to the appearance of life to the eventual extinction of life and the destruction of a life supporting planetary surface is faster on small planets than on large planets.”

“Really? Didn’t Sydour 7 snuff out before Skydour 9, and it’s bigger?”

“Right, it did. But this a rule, not a law. Lots of exceptions. But it tends to work all else being equal, which as you know, is not all the time.”

“Let me think. Smaller planet cools first, then has smaller surface area, so chemical evolution is faster.”

“A little, but only a little. It’s more the biochemical evolution. Right about the cooling, though. Turns out, most lifestarts kill each other off. It’s counterintuitive. More lifestarts — more primordial puddles if you will — you would think that would hasten the development of life, but most of the time some of the life forms ruin the biochemistry for the others, and eventually themselves.”

“Ah, right, but if there is only one primordial puddle, it gets to cycle from lifestart to extinction fast.”

“Yes, within a few klakons, a tiny fraction of the total lifespan of a planet, on a small planet like Mars.”

“Right, then the experiment starts again right away, less residual biochemical suppression.”

“Yes, that’s the start of the cycle, why a small planet — all else being equal of course — will go from no life to life, and go through the first few typical stages…”

“I remember! Colonial forms, multicellular, specialized, motile, informational, predator-prey, behavioral web, quasi-intelligent, Koch Effect.”

“Mostly right. You’re pretty smart for an Eetweeb. Informational comes after predator-prey…”

“Ah, right, mixed that up…”

And the small size only speeds up the start of the process. The middle part goes fast on any size planet once multicellular happens. Depends on extinction events.”

“Right, extinction events, that would slow it down…”

“OK, may be not so smart for an Eetweeb. Extinction events speed it up once there’s multicellular, as long as their magnitude is below the cube root of planetary mass rule. But that’s getting into esoteric details.”

“I guess that makes sense.”

“Yes. Yes it does. But then the last part of the cycle runs faster simply because the planet is smaller. Quasi intelligence builds technology webs sooner on smaller planets, and when the Koch Effect swings into play, smaller plants are simply more vulnerable. Less water, less atmosphere, less buffering.”

“Cool. I always wanted to study Solsystemology, but I didn’t have the math skills.”

“Tectonics, too Larger planets have long lived tectonic moving system. That slows down the process.”

“How does that work?”

“Another time, next time we get together for a blopwut. I’ve got to go now. Time for my exnorphilation.”

“OK, professor, thanks for your time. See you in class tomorrow.”

“Sure thing. Stop by for office hours whenever you want. Nobody ever does, always a refreshing change to whatchawhacha with a glornififoov.”

“Cheers.”

“Glopfdorp.”

How smart are parrots?

Parrots are smarter than Nebo the dog

“Nebo.”

The dog’s name came from the direction of the enclosed front porch of the tin-roofed concrete block home of my friend Bwana Ndege, in Isiro, Zaire.

“Nebo.”

It sounded like an older woman, a somewhat crackly voice, insistent.

“Nebo. Kuya. Nebo.”

The old woman was calling the dog, in Swahili. Nebo, sleeping at first on the cool concrete floor under the dining room table startled awake, ears scanning. Nebo was a large Doberman who had never learned that one-man one-dog thing. He was gentle. And listening carefully.

“Nebo.” Louder, more insistent, the voice from the porch called. This time Nebo got it, jumped up, pushed his way past the legs of chairs and bounded past me in the living room, and onto the porch. Nobody there. Who had called him? I wondered if dogs ever considered that they might have dreamt something they they thought they had heard. Perhaps thinking that, Nebo looked around for a moment, and retired to his cool sleeping spot in the interior of the house.

“Heh, heh, heh, heh,” the old woman cackled. Bwana Ndege’s African Grey Parrot had fooled the dog again. And was clearly amused.

This happened… Read on.

How many lakes are there?

How many lakes are there? We don’t actually know. Lakes are often undercounted, or small lakes ignored, in larger scale geophysical surveys. It is hard to count the small lakes, or in some cases, even to define them. A recent study (published in Geophysical Research Letters) examines this question. We want to know how many lakes there are, and how much surface area they take up, in order to understand better the global Carbon cycle (and for other reasons). From the Abstract of this study:

An accurate description of the abundance and size distribution of lakes is critical to quantifying limnetic contributions to the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of global lake abundance are poorly constrained. We used high-resolution satellite imagery to produce a GLObal WAter BOdies database (GLOWABO), comprising all lakes greater than 0.002 km2. GLOWABO contains geographic and morphometric information for ~117 million lakes with a combined surface area of about 5 × 106 km2, which is 3.7% of the Earth’s nonglaciated land area. Large and intermediate-sized lakes dominate the total lake surface area. Overall, lakes are less abundant but cover a greater total surface area relative to previous estimates based on statistical extrapolations. The GLOWABO allows for the global-scale evaluation of fundamental limnological problems, providing a foundation for improved quantification of limnetic contributions to the biogeochemical processes at large scales.

So, there are fewer than thought but they take up more space than thought. Who would have thought?

Interestingly, there are more lakes at higher latitudes. Because of the uneven distribution of land surface in the Northern vs. Southern Hemispheres (more land in the north) this means more lakes in boreal regions, and more specifically, more lakes in previously glaciated regions. This makes sense because glaciation (and deglaciation, melting of the glaciers) produces lakes. The immature terrain produced by a glacier eventually matures with erosion joining streams and rivers to those lakes, making them disappear. If no glaciers return to a previously glaciated region, eventually all the lakes (or most of them) will disappear.

Look at the Congo, Amazon and Nile basins for examples of large inland regions in the tropics. There are very few lakes. Now look at North America north of the maximum extent of the recent (Wisconsin) glacier. Lots and lots of lakes.

Keep an eye on Hurricane Gonzalo (Updated)

Atlantic Hurricane Gonzalo is a Major Hurricane, Category 3 at the moment, and it is heading towards Bermuda. The storm will weaken a little bit before getting there but it will still be major. This is a significant event. It is possible that a storm surge of about 10 feet could occur there. Gonzales will be very near Bermuda in by Friday Evening, and past it by Saturday morning.

Interestingly, Gonzalo is expected to remain a hurricane strength storm (though it may be called a “post-tropical cyclone” it will still have sustained winds at hurricane level) as it passes the Canadian Maritimes. It will be interesting to see how much of its hurricane shape it maintains as this happens. Gonzalo will still be a pretty nasty storm when, in several days it arrives in the general vicinity if Ireland and Great Britain.

Screen Shot 2014-10-16 at 9.35.32 PM

UPDATE:
From NWS:

Although it appears that a gradual weakening has begun, Gonzalo is
expected to be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it
moves near or over Bermuda later today. After that time, increasing
shear and cooler waters along the track of the hurricane should
result in a faster weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition
into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or
south of Newfoundland, and become fully extratropical thereafter.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.

Bermuda radar:
Screen Shot 2014-10-17 at 10.00.05 AM

Research Suggests Healthcare Workers Could Balk At Treating Ebola Patients

Given the current and developing situation in Dallas, where two health workers have become infected with Ebola while caring for a patient, it is reasonable to ask if health workers might decide to call in sick for a few months until this whole highly infectious often fatal disease thing blows over. Daniel Barnett, of the Department of Environmental Health Sciences at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, has looked into health workers’ unwillingness to report to work when there is a potential for infectious-disease transmission to themselves and their family members.

The health workers I know tend to run into burning buildings or jump into frozen lakes and such to rescue people, so I can’t see that happening. Apparently it has been an issue in Spain and in West Africa. I can’t explain Spain, but things are so dismal in West Africa that it is not at all unexpected. But what about in the US?

So far there doesn’t seem to be an issue according to Barnett’s research, but he cautions that continued willingness to work with Ebola patients here is not assured. In an earlier study, Barnett and colleagues found that one-third of workers at a large U.S. urban medical center would be unwilling to respond to a severe infectious disease outbreak.

“An individual’s personal perception of the importance of his or her work during the response phase and his or her sense of confidence in performing this role effectively, are among the most powerful determinants of willingness to respond,” notes Dr. Barnett. “Our research also suggests that familiarizing health responders with laws and policies designed to protect their wellbeing in an emergent infectious disease event is important for bolstering response willingness,” Barnett adds.

Barnet notes that for training to be effective it must provide clear guidance on infection control protocols and instill a clear understanding of outbreak response duties. I asked him about the domestic side of this, about training of health workers regarding in relation to thier behavior or decision making when they are off duty. This seems to have arisen as an issue with the second Ebola-infected worker in Dallas, who took an air flight after starting a fever (if reports are accurate) and before diagnosis as having the disease.

“Preparedness and response trainings on emergent infectious diseases need to cover not only work-related protocols,” he told me, “but also address behavioral elements outside of the healthcare setting in the interest of public health. To date, there’s essentially been no research or ‘environmental scan’ on the extent to which such trainings actually encompass behaviors and practices outside of the health care workplace. However, this type of training on precautionary measures outside the workplace is essential. It needs to be imbedded into trainings and harmonized across healthcare institutions to ensure consistency.”

For a few lucky teachers, an adventure of a lifetime

From the NCSE:

The National Center for Science Education is pleased to accept applications for its inaugural class of Grand Canyon Teacher Scholars. Lucky teachers will be given an all-expenses-paid seat on NCSE’s annual Grand Canyon expedition, an eight-day voyage through some of the world’s most greatest geological wonders. It’s an opportunity of a lifetime, giving deserving teachers a hard-earned vacation and an incomparable learning experience.

For over a dozen years, NCSE has chartered a raft trip through Grand Canyon, with staffers Steve Newton and Josh Rosenau currently taking the lead in the unique and tongue-in-cheek “two model” tour of the canyon’s geological history. Rafters descend through the strata, considering the hundreds of millions of years revealed on the canyon’s walls, and examine how creationists try to explain that same evidence, and why such efforts are doomed to fail.

“The Grand Canyon is the best geology classroom in the world,” explains Steve Newton, a programs and policy director at NCSE and a geology professor at the College of Marin. “There’s no better way to see deep time and explore the processes that shape our Earth than to raft down the Colorado River as it cuts down through the eons, past the Great Unconformity, to rocks almost half the age of the Earth.”

“Any teacher would be lucky to be chosen for this scholarship,” added Rosenau. “Aside from the wonders of the canyon and the inspired presentations Steve and I prepare, the great joy of the NCSE expedition is the mix of scientists, scholars, and brilliant polymaths who join us. The winning teachers will have a chance to learn from a lot of brilliant people, and bringing more teachers into the campfire conversations will enrich all of our experiences.”

“We all want to find ways to honor the amazing work science teachers do, and I’m glad NCSE has this opportunity,” explained NCSE executive director Ann Reid. “It’ll be exciting to see all the applicants, and to give everyone a chance to help give teachers this spectacular reward.” Teachers are encouraged to apply now (the deadline is January 5, 2015), and anyone interesting in helping teachers have this experience can contribute to the scholarship fund..