Tag Archives: severe weather

Stormy Weather and Climate Change This Week

Uncategorized, , , , , , , ,

South Carolina Floods

I haven’t said much about this partly because there is so much good coverage, but South Carolina’s floods, still ongoing, are going to get on the list of worst weather events of 2015. Since these floods are amounting to a one in 1,000 year event, they are actually on the list of worst weather events since Vladimir the Great died, Cnut the Great invaded Enlgand (unrelated event), Eric Haakonsson outlaws berzerkers in Norway, and Olaf Haraldson declared himself King of Norway.

And yes, that event was climate change enhanced in at least two ways, maybe three. With global warming there is more moisture in the atmosphere and in large parts of North America it seems that this moisture is often clumped up into longer term slow moving rain systems. That was going on in the region for days. Then, the strength, size, and wetness of hurricane Joaquin, which indirectly fed moisture into the system, was enhanced by very high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Also, those sea surface temperatures have generally increased the punch from Atlantic based storms. All in all, it is likely that South Carolina, the neighbor of the state that is famous for making climate change illegal, and who’s congressional delegation refused to help the victims of Super Storm Sandy, got walloped by climate change.

Fortunately for the good people of South Carolina, our federal government does not act cynically and help is on the way. But next time we are called to help a storm impacted region, we expect South Carolina to put their big kid pants on and step up to the plate.

Oh No, Oho!

The storm formerly known as Oho, a Category 2 eastern Pacific hurricane, is in the process of doing something that does not happen very often: Slamming into British Columbia and Alaska. I’m told this is only the second time a tropical storm, in a post-tropical state, has followed a track like this.

CP072015W1

Probably not a big deal for a region where serious windy and wet storms are common. But this is yet another case of the tropics breaking out of their usual pattern as a result, likely, of climate change combined with this year’s ongoing El Nino. Certainly, warm sea surface temperatures (which are everywhere there is sea) have helped this system maintain strength as it has moved north.

Here in Minnesota, famous for winters that start in October, we will be experiencing a summer like weekend. Global warming plus El Nino has exacerbated an ongoing trend of warming falls. Too bad some of our garden plants respond more to changes in sunlight than to changes in temperature, or we might not be eating fried green tomatoes for dinner tonight.

pauldouglas_1444361688_aeris1

More hurricanes to come?

Meanwhile keep an eye on the Eastern Pacific. Two more disturbances are developing with reasonable (though not certain) chances of becoming tropical storms. 18-E is very likely to become a hurricane by early Sunday morning, and if so it will be called Pali. Disturbance Number 1, just getting going, has about a 50% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next five days. All quiet in the Atlantic, the rest of the Pacific, or the Indian Ocean.

In case you were wondering about the climate change – hurricane link, this might be of interest to you:

AGW Class Cyclone Pam Nearing Vanuatu

Uncategorized, , , , ,

Pam is a tropical cyclone of category 5 strength, but is churning over waters that have high temperatures at depth, a phenomenon we seem to be seeing more often lately, as a result of anthropogenic global warming. That is why I call it “AGW Class.” Strong Category 5, deep heat enhanced. It is said that this is one of only 10 Category 5 storms recorded in the basin since good data are available. The Weather Underground has the story.

In addition, there are three other tropical cyclones extant in the Pacific.

Nathan is just on the Tropical Storm-Hurricane boundary and is heading for Cape York, Australia. Olwyn is a fully formed tropical cyclone (hurricane) with sustained winds at 85mph, and is busy menacing the west coast of Australia, which it will scrape over the next several hours, reaching Sharks Bay very soon and passing off the southwest corner of OZ over the weekend. But since that is so many time zones away we really have no idea when any of this will happen. Bavi is a tropical storm out in the Pacific heading roughly west by northwest. This storm may reach hurricane strength in a few day, but the forecast I saw is very uncertain.

And yes, there are views of the Earth that allow you to see all four storms at once. Here is one from the Climate Reanalyzer. The storms are marked but you should be able to spot them:

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT5_WS10

This one, that I got of Twitter, has the storms marked:

B_57cIsWgAAI77W

You don’t see this every day.

New Study On How Global Warming Changes The Weather

Uncategorized, , , , , ,

Human caused greenhouse gas pollution has warmed the planet. Global warming means more extreme weather. Many meteorologist who watch the weather every day see this. More and more research shows that greenhouse gas pollution changes the weather in a way that causes even more change in the weather. Changing weather systems means more lightning, increased high precipitation events in certain regions like the US Northeast, including more frequent large snow storms.

Global warming has had uneven effects. The Arctic has warmed relatively more than most of the rest of the planet. The major movements of air masses are driven by a combination of the rotation of the Earth and the movement of extra heat from the Equator towards the poles, a process that sets up the trade winds and the jet stream. But the additional warming in the Arctic has changed this pattern measurably, resulting in these and other changes in weather patterns.

A new study out in Science, by Dim Coumou, Jascha Lehmann, and Johanna Beckmann, “The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes,” demonstrates that storm activity in much of the Northern Hemisphere has changed in a way that matters to our weather, and is likely to change more in the future. From the abstract:

Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing the poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected in autumn or winter but whether significant changes have occurred is debated. Here we report significant weakening of summer circulation detected in three key dynamical quantities: (1) the zonal-mean zonal wind, (2) the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and (3) the amplitude of fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening of the zonal wind is explained by a reduction in poleward temperature gradient. Changes in Rossby waves and EKE are consistent with regression analyses of climate model projections and changes over the seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes are associated with low EKE and thus the observed weakening might have contributed to more persistent heat waves in recent summers.

The study has been written up by Chris Mooney, in the Washington Post, and Roz Pidcock at Carbon Brief. From the study’s press release,

“When the great air streams in the sky above us get disturbed by climate change, this can have severe effects on the ground,” says lead-author Dim Coumou. “While you might expect reduced storm activity to be something good, it turns out that this reduction leads to a greater persistence of weather systems in the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. In summer, storms transport moist and cool air from the oceans to the continents bringing relief after periods of oppressive heat. Slack periods, in contrast, make warm weather conditions endure, resulting in the buildup of heat and drought.”

“Unabated climate change will probably further weaken summer circulation patterns which could thus aggravate the risk of heat waves,” says co-author Jascha Lehmann “Climate simulations for the next decades, the CMIP5, remarkably show the same link that we found in observations. So the warm temperature extremes we’ve experienced in recent years might be only a beginning.”

What happened to the Blizzard of 2015?

Uncategorized, , , , , , , ,

What happened to the Blizzard of 2015? Well, it happened. Despite breathless complaining about how the forecasters got it all wrong, they didn’t. As the storm was predicted, there should have been close to about two feet of snow in the New York City metropolitan area, but as it turns out, there was between 8 and 12 inches. That means that New York City experienced a typical winter month’s worth of snow in one day. Also, most snow that falls on The City falls a few inches at a time and melts more or less instantly, as few cities can match New York in its heat island effect. So, 8-12 inches of snow all at once is a meaningful, crippling snow storm. Two feet would have been much worse, but it is not like The City did not experience a memorable weather event.

More importantly, the forecast was for a huge blizzard with up to three feet of snow across a blob shaped region of the Northeast approximately 475 miles along its longest dimension (see graphic above). The blob ended up being off, on the southwest end, by about 40 or 50 miles. So the spatial extent of the storm was misestimated, days in advance, by about 10%. An object the size of a country was off by the distance a healthy adult can walk in a long day. That was, ladies and gentleman, an excellent, accurate prediction.

nyt-march-29-1976But, since the storm’s outcome was different than predicted in the world’s most inward looking city (you’ve seen the self-effacing maps produced now and then by the New Yorker magazine), it is assumed by many that the forecast was bad, that forecasting was bad, that weather models are bad, and so on.

As meteorologist Paul Douglass told me yesterday when I asked him if he was going to be kneeling on any carpets today over the difference between prediction and reality, “No kneeling, Greg. Just because we tap supercomputers and Doppler radar doesn’t mean we can predict snowfall down to the inch. Models are good and getting better, but they’re not perfect and never will be. People expect perfection in an imperfect world. Boston picked up 20-30” snow, Long Island saw 15-23”, so did much of Connecticut. There was an 8 foot storm surge on Cape Cod where winds gusted to 78 mph.”

Paul also told me something he shared later that day on the Ed Show. “Over 30 years I’ve worked with a series of anchormen in the Twin Cities and Chicago. When they invariably gave me a hard time for busting a forecast I reminded them that a monkey in a sport coat could report on what happened yesterday. Look at the trends and predict tomorrow’s news headlines!” He indicated that when sportscasters started to routinely predict tomorrow’s scores rather than report today’s scores, they would be on a level playing field with the meteorologists.

Here is that Ed Show piece:

The Blizzard of 2015 was in some ways comparable to the Blizzard of 1978, which was one of the first storms of the modern era of increased storminess. The snowfall totals may have been greater for 2015, but coastal winds were greater for 1978. But, in 1978 over 100 people died, and most of them died of exposure because they were caught in the snow. So, in terms of cost of human lives, the two storms are very comparable despite the differences in winds.

ComparingBlizzards_1978_2015

Why did over 100 people die in New England’s 1978 storm, but either zero or one person died (depending on attribution of a single sledding accident related death to the storm) in 2015?

Weather forecasting. It got better because the science and technology behind it got better. And, frankly, that is partly a result of storms like the ’78 storm and various hurricanes, which prompted an interest in advancing this technology, which includes on one hand satellites producing piles of data and on the other hand advanced computer and software producing powerful models.

You should buy your local meteorologist a beer.

The image comparing 1978 and 2015 is a chimera of images that come from NOAA and the Boston Globe.

More on the Great Blizzard of 2015

Uncategorized, , , ,

Screen Shot 2015-01-27 at 9.57.51 AMThe Blizzard continues. The center of the low pressure system moved to the northeast more than expected, so the maximum snowfall amounts have also moved deeper into New England, and it the storm may end up dropping the largest amounts Downeast, in Maine, rather than around New York and southern New England. Nonetheless maximum snow totals are heading for 20 inches in many areas west of Boston.

Here, I wanted to alert you to a recent study that talks about “Changes in US East Coast Cyclone Dynamics with Climate Change,” which has this abstract:

Previous studies investigating the impacts of climate change on extratropical cyclones have primarily focused on changes in the frequency, intensity, and distribution of these events. Fewer studies have directly investigated changes in the storm-scale dynamics of individual cyclones. Precipitation associated with these events is projected to increase with warming owing to increased atmospheric water vapor content. This presents the potential for enhancement of cyclone intensity through increased lower-tropospheric diabatic potential vorticity generation. This hypothesis is tested using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to simulate individual wintertime extratropical cyclone events along the United States East Coast in present-day and future thermodynamic environments. Thermodynamic changes derived from an ensemble of GCMs for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A2 emissions scenario are applied to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions of observed strongly developing cyclone events, holding relative humidity constant. The perturbed boundary conditions are then used to drive future simulations of these strongly developing events. Present-to-future changes in the storm-scale dynamics are assessed using Earth-relative and storm-relative compositing. Precipitation increases at a rate slightly less than that dictated by the Clausius–Clapeyron relation with warming. Increases in cyclone intensity are seen in the form of minimum sea level pressure decreases and a strengthened 10-m wind field. Amplification of the low-level jet occurs because of the enhancement of latent heating. Storm-relative potential vorticity diagnostics indicate a strengthening of diabatic potential vorticity near the cyclone center, thus supporting the hypothesis that enhanced latent heat release is responsible for this regional increase in future cyclone intensity.

In short, today’s storm is the sort of storm we expect to see more often with anthropogenic global warming, and in fact, we have already seen such an increase.

At the Washington Post, Chris Mooney has this: Global Warming Could Make Blizzards Worse, in which he discusses this further (though not in reference to the research noted above). He summarizes, “While I wouldn’t call this a very settled scientific area, there are certainly reasons to think that in a warming world, we might get more snowfall, on average, in certain extreme winter storms.”

Here’s a piece on the Ed Show, with Paul Douglas, putting the storm in context.

The Great Blizzard of 2015: Fair to say it is AGW amplified.

Uncategorized, , , , , , ,

About 20 million people are currently under a blizzard warning, and double that under a winter weather advisory, for a storm moving into the Northeast today and tomorrow, with snow falling though Wednesday. Thousands of flights have been cancelled. Wind will be at tropical storm force, and occasionally, hurricane force, and coastal flooding is expected to be epic. The total amounts of snowfall will be over a foot for a very large area, and well over that here and there, though this is very difficult to predict.

This is a strong low pressure system that will gather significant energy from a warm sea surface as it moves into the Atlantic.

This is a system that would normally not produce a lot of snow, but the odd configuration of the jet stream (once again) is moving the low pressure system through a pattern that will create an epic blizzard.

Storms of roughly this magnitude, in this the New York City area, have occurred in 1888, 1947, 1978, 1993, 1996, 2003, 2006, 2010. A similar pattern would emerge if the focal area was Boston. Weather Wunderground lists these snow events for New York City, indicating that half of the heavy events since the mid nineteenth century have occurred in the last 12 years:

  1. 26.9″ Feb 11-12, 2006
  2. 25.8″ Dec 26-27, 1947
  3. 21.0″ Mar 12-14, 1888
  4. 20.9″ Feb 25-26, 2010
  5. 20.2″ Jan 7-8, 1996
  6. 20.0″ Dec 26-27, 2010
  7. 19.8″ Feb 16-17, 2003
  8. 19.0″ Jan 26-27, 2011
  9. 18.1″ Jan 22-24, 1935
  10. 18.1″ Mar 7-8, 1941

Both the odd jet stream and the warm sea surface temperatures can be pegged as likely effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). This added to the clear pattern of more of these storms happening very recently strongly suggest that it is reasonable to characterize this storm as a “global warming amplified storm.” This is not unexpected.

I’m not sure if the sea surface temperatures in the region are at a record high, but they are very high. Over time, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have certainly risen:

(a) Global annual mean sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies from HadISST for the period 1870–2008 (Ref. 58)(thin black line). (b) Annual mean North Atlantic SST anomalies for the period 1870–2008 (ref. 58; thin black line). (c) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index for the period 1870–2008. The modern AMO index4 is defined by subtracting the global mean SST anomalies (a) from the North Atlantic SST anomalies (b). Five-year running means are shown by heavy black lines with fill in all panels.
(a) Global annual mean sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies from HadISST for the period 1870–2008 (Ref. 58)(thin black line). (b) Annual mean North Atlantic SST anomalies for the period 1870–2008 (ref. 58; thin black line). (c) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index for the period 1870–2008. The modern AMO index4 is defined by subtracting the global mean SST anomalies (a) from the North Atlantic SST anomalies (b). Five-year running means are shown by heavy black lines with fill in all panels.

And here is the current sea surface temperature anomaly map for the region, showing current temperatures off New York and New England in the upper range:

NOAA_SST_anomwnc

There has been an increase in extreme precipitation in the Northeast, with a 71% change in the region:

CS_very-heavy-precip_V8-1

This is inline with predictions the IPCC has been making for some time now. According to climate scientist Michael Mann, “The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that Nor’easters like this one may grow stronger w/ human-caused climate change, as they are driven by the contrast between cold Arctic air masses and ever-warming ocean surface temperatures. We also know that ocean surface temperatures off the U.S. east coast right now are unusually warm, and there is no doubt that a component of that anomalous warmth is due to human-caused climate change. Those warm ocean temperatures also mean that there is more moisture in the air for this storm to feed on and to produce huge snowfalls inland. Climate change is making these sorts of storms more common, much as it is making Sandy-like Superstorms and unusually intense hurricanes more common. Asking whether these storms were caused by climate change, however, is asking the wrong question. What we can say is that they were likely made worse by climate change.”

Kevin Trenbeth, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research notes that the main reason there is a big blizzard coming to the northeast is that it is winter, but “it is warm over the oceans and the contrast between the cold continent and the warm Gulf Stream and surrounding waters is increasing. At present sea surface temperatures are more than 2F above normal over huge expanses (1000 miles) off the east coast and water vapor in the atmosphere is about 10% higher as a result. About half of this can be attributed to climate change.” I would add that the actual anomolies over large areas of the sea where this low pressure system will track are closer to 4 degrees.

There is a live blog at Weather Underground that you may want to keep an eye on, here. There, we see that current predictions for the region are:

New York City, NY: 18 – 24″
Boston, MA: 20 – 30″
Providence, RI: 20 – 30″

The National Weather Service has a page on the storm here.

And, yes, folks, this is a trend:

CEI-Winter15-638x474

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby): Update and what you can do to help

Uncategorized, , , , , , ,

The outer reaches of Typhoon Hagupit are already affecting the target region in the Philippines. Hundreds of thousands of people have fled the areas most under the gun, but the potential for serious problems covers a very large area. The storm has gone through quite a few changes over the last couple of days, but is probably strengthening somewhat right now. No matter what happens, it is going to hit the Philippines as a very serious storm.

Jeff Masters has an update here.

This is the same area that was hit with Typhoon Haiyan last year. Haiyan was a bigger storm. But, Haiyan was also one of the biggest typhoons ever observed (I think people are still arguing over whether it was the biggest, second biggest, etc.). There is potential for very high storm surges, serious winds, very heavy rains (over two feet in some places) which could cause devastating mudslides and flooding.

When this sort of storm hits people often want to know what they can do to help. I’ve learned about a recent project that you may be interested in. This is by Direct Relief. As background, let’s look at a relatively objective source of information about Direct Relief, Wikipedia:

Direct Relief (formerly known as Direct Relief International) is a private humanitarian nonprofit organization based in Santa Barbara, California, with a mission to “improve the health and lives of people affected by poverty or emergency situations by mobilizing and providing essential medical resources needed for their care.”[1] Founded in 1948 by Estonian immigrant William D. Zimdin, the organization is headed by President and CEO Thomas Tighe and a 31-member Board of Directors.[5] Direct Relief has received a 100% fundraising efficiency rating by Forbes,[6] been ranked by the Chronicle of Philanthropy as California’s largest international relief organization,[7] and topped Charity Navigator’s 2014 list of “10 of the Best Charities Everyone’s Heard Of.[8]” Direct Relief is the first nonprofit organization in the United States to be designated by The National Association of Boards of Pharmacy (NABP) as a Verified-Accredited Wholesale Distributor licensed to distribute pharmaceutical medicines to all 50 U.S. States and Washington, D.C.[9]

So it is an experienced organization, gets the money you give it out into the field efficiently, and is secular. All things I’m sure you want to see in an organization you make a donation to.

But the Hagupit situation offers an additional opportunity because Direct Relief has a new project in the field there, which looks promising. I was planning on talking to someone at Direct Relief about it, to find out more, but I think he got stuck in a meeting at the UN or something, so we’ll probably talk later (and I’ll report on that to you). Meanwhile, check this out:

Direct Relief’s Emergency Response Team is monitoring Typhoon Hagupit (locally known as Ruby), as it approaches the Philippines. On its current trajectory, the typhoon is expected to make landfall in the Eastern Visayas in the next 72 hours and could affect 4.5 million people.

Direct Relief already has staff on the ground ready to respond in the event of a disaster and has reached out to local partners and health officials located in high-risk regions 5, 6, 7 and 8.

There are also three strategically pre-positioned typhoon modules ready to be rapidly utilized in the event of an emergency. These modules contain enough medicines and supplies supplies to treat 5,000 people for a month following a disaster.

Philippine authorities are currently in the process of evacuating vulnerable communities. Vice Mayor of Tacloban city, Jerry Yaokasin, stated that “we will now strictly enforce forced evacuation.” Yaokasin said that “we have no more excuses, we have gone through Yolanda, and to lose that many lives, it’s beyond our conscience already.”

Direct Relief’s staff on the ground will be maintaining contact with partners and monitoring the situation as it develops in the next 72 hours.

There are three things you will find at Direct Relief’s web site.

<li>First, there is <a href="http://www.directrelief.org/hpp/?extent=99.1924,-1.6963,144.8076,27.1137">a monitor of the storm's path</a>, an interactive googly mappy think which is very cool.</li>


<li>Second, there is more information about <a href="http://www.directrelief.org/2014/12/monitoring-typhoon-hagupit-approaches-philippines/">Direct Relief and the situation in the Philippines</a>; they have one of the better organized web sites for disaster relief non profits. </li>


<li>Third, and most importantly, <a href="https://secure2.convio.net/dri/site/Donation2?df_id=2105&2105.donation=form1&_ga=1.168290657.1168894472.1417733221">there is a way to donate money</a>. </li>

When donating, frankly, I’d suggest the “wherever it is needed most” or “disaster relief” options. They are already there, on the ground; they will be relieving people as it happens. I have a feeling they know best where to spend the money.

The Eye of the Storm, And The Storm

Uncategorized, , , , ,

There has not been much hurricane activity in the Atlantic for a while now, so unsurprisingly the reporting is starting to slip again. This post goes out to all you reporters at CNN and Reuters and Yahoo and everywhere else. Imma give you an example of what you are doing wrong, then I’ll send you to a place to learn up on it.

A recent report noted that “hurricane force winds are now bearing down on Bermuda, and the storm is expected to arrive within hours” meaning the eye would arrive within hours (paraphrased). This is not what is happening. When there is a hurricane arriving at your location, and the “hurricane force winds” start, that’s the hurricane. Not some other thing. The eye of the storm is one part of the storm. The rest of the storm is big and when you have hurricane force winds form that big circle thingie you see in the weather reports, that is the hurricane. For that matter, the lesser winds that arrive sooner, that’s the hurricane too. It’s a big thing, that hurricane. And the whole thing is the hurricane.

What does “Hurricane Landfall” mean?

But… but…. but what about when they say that word, what is is, “landfall,” isn’t that the EYE of the hurricane, so isn’t that the hurricane?

No. Read this: Hurricane Landfall: What it is and don’t be stupid about it.

More Research Linking Global Warming To Bad Weather Events

Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , ,

A new paper advances our understanding of the link between anthropogenic global warming and the apparent uptick in severe weather events we’ve been experiencing. Let’s have a look at the phenomenon and the new research.

Climate Change: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly.

It is mostly bad. Sometimes it is ugly. I was looking at crop reports from the USDA and noticed an interesting phenomenon in Minnesota, that is repeated across much of the US this year: Fewer acres are in crops but among those acres that are planted there is a high expected per-acre yield. The higher yield will make up for the lost acreage this year. Unfortunately, that is about as good as it gets.

The lost acreage, at least in Minnesota as I understand it, comes from a late spring followed by a wet early summer. And holy crap was it wet, and fairly cool. My own tomatoes were utterly confused. One plant produced a single tomato that ripened a month and a half early, then waited for weeks to make its next move. I think organisms do that sometimes; when they think they are about to die they reproduce desperately, which for a tomato plant, is producing one premature tomato and then trying to not be noticed for a while. In any event, many Minnesota farmers live with an interesting conflict. There are parts of their farms they can’t plant in a given year because it stays too wet too long, and that varies from year to year. The rest of the farm is irrigated much of the summer. This year, it seems that there has been enough extra rain to increase productivity of the irrigation season, but acreage was lost between the encore of a sort of Polar Vortex mimic and a lot of rain.

The extra productivity was a lucky break, and is limited in its effects. The same weather phenomenon that made June nearly the wettest month ever in the upper plains has contributed significantly to a longer term drought in California, which is on the verge of ruining agriculture there. Severe flooding or extreme dry can do much more damage to agriculture than is accounted for by minor increases in productivity because of the extra water vapor provided by Anthropogenic Global Warming.

And the floods can be downright dangerous. I was talking to my friend and former student Rusty several months ago about the flooding in Colorado. I asked her about how her husband was doing (they both happen to be climate scientists by the way).

“Oh he’s probably fine but I’ve not heard from him in three days. His cell phone battery is probably out. I imagine he’s clinging to some high ground up on the Front Range about now.”

He is a volunteer first responder and had headed up into the canyons year boulder during the big floods there. Which were like the big floods in Calgary. And Central Europe. And the UK. And that rainy June here. And the flooding that just happened in several parts of the US.

All of it, all of those floods, and some significant drought, and the Polar Vortex that hit the middle of North America last winter, all caused, almost certainly, by the same phenomenon.

Wildfires are probably enhanced by recent weather phenomenon as well, with extreme rains causing the build up of fuel, followed by extreme dry providing the conditions for larger and more frequent fires.

On the more extreme end of effects for severe weather is the Arab Spring phenomenon. It is one thing to have a bad year for corn because of a wet spring. It is worse to have a multi year drought that could seriously affect our ability to buy almonds, avocados and romaine from California. But what happens when an agricultural system fails for several years in a row, the farmer abandon the land and move to the cities where they become indigent, a civil war breaks out, and next think you know a Caliphate is formed, in part on the wreckage of one or two failed regimes, failed in large part because of severe weather conditions caused by human induced climate change?

I’ve discussed this at length before. (See: Linking Weather Extremes to Global Warming and Global Warming and Extreme Weather) The relationship is pretty simple, to know how it works all you have to do is remember one word:

AGWAAQRaRWaWW. Rhymes with “It’s stuck in my craw, paw!”

Let me parse that out for you.

AGW -> AA -> QR-RW -> WW

AGW – Anthropogenic Global Warming

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is caused mainly by added CO2 in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuel. By definition, the burning of fossil fuels is the release of energy by separation of carbon previously attached to other atoms by biological processes typically a long time ago, and over a long period of time. We humans are spending a century or two releasing tens and tens of millions of slow storage of Carbon, all at once in geological time, causing the chemistry of our atmosphere to resemble something we’ve not seen in tens of millions of years.

AA – Arctic Amplification

The CO2 by itself would warm the Earth to a certain degree, but it also produces what are called positive feedbacks. Which are not positive in a good way. For example, added CO2 means there is more water vapor in the atmosphere (because of more evaporation and ability for the atmosphere to hold water). Water vapor is, like CO2, a greenhouse gas. So we get even more warming. In the Arctic, there are a number of additional positive feedbacks that have to do with ice. The Arctic, with its additional positive feedbacks, warms more than other parts of the planet. This is called Arctic Amplification.

QR-RW – Quasi-resonant Rossby waves

Jet Stream Cross Section
Cross section of the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. The Jet Streams form at the highly energetic boundary between major circulating cells which contain the trade winds near the top of the Troposphere.
Normally, heat from the equator makes its way towards the poles via air and sea. Giant currents of air are set up by a combination of extra equatorial heat and the rotation of the earth. Part of this system is the so-called “trade winds” (winds that typically blow in a typical direction) and the jet streams.

What the jet stream is supposed to look like.
What the jet stream is supposed to look like.
The jet streams occur at high altitude between major bands of trade winds that encircle the earth. The trade-wind/jet stream systems are typically straight rings that encircle the earth (a bit like the bands on the major gas planets) and the jet streams move, normally, pretty straight and pretty fast. But, with the warming of the Arctic, the differential between the equator and the poles is reduced, so all sorts of strange things happen, and one of those things is the formation of quasi-resonant Rossby waves.

A Rossby wave is simply a big giant meander in the jet stream. Quasi-resonant means “almost resonant” and resonant means that instead of the meanders meandering around, they sit in one place (almost).

What the jet stream looks like when it is all messed up.
What the jet stream looks like when it is all messed up.
It appears that Quasi-resonant Rossby waves set up when there is a certain number (roughly a half dozen) of these big meanders. When this happens, the jet stream slows down. The big bends in the jet streams block or stall weather patterns, and the slow moving nature of the jet stream contributes to the formation of either flash droughts (as Paul Douglas calls them) where several weeks of nearly zero rain menace a region, or extensive and intensive rainfall, like all the events mentioned above.

WW – Weather Whiplash

That’s the term that refers to dramatic shifts between the extreme weather events created by Quasi-resonant Rossby Waves, the result of Arctic Amplification, caused by Anthropogenic Global Warming.

And that’s how you get yer AGWAAQRaRWaWW. Rhymes with “It’s stuck in my craw, paw!”

Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer

Which brings us to Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer. This is the title of a paper by Dim Coumou, Vladimir Petoukhov, Stefan Rahmstorf, Stefan Petri, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Here is the “for the people” abstract of the paper:

The recent decade has seen an exceptional number of boreal summer weather extremes, some causing massive damage to society. There is a strong scientific debate about the underlying causes of these events. We show that high-amplitude quasi- stationary Rossby waves, associated with resonance circulation regimes, lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events. Since the onset of rapid Arctic amplification around 2000, a cluster of resonance circulation regimes is ob- served involving wave numbers 7 and 8. This has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the frequency of high- amplitude quasi-stationary waves with these wave numbers. Our findings provide important new insights regarding the link between Arctic changes and midlatitude extremes.

The effects of climate change have occurred (and will occur) on a number of time scales. Over a century we’ve had a foot of sea level rise, which is showing its effects now. Storminess, in the form of changes in tornado regimes and tropical storms, has probably been with us for a few decades. But Agwaaqrarwaww has probably only been with us since about the beginning of the present century.

I blogged about this before. In “Global Warming And Extreme Weather” I described an earlier paper produced by the same research team, in which they presented this graphic:

QRRossbyWavePaper

Followed by this graphic, which I made, with the intention of more clearly showing the trend in QR events:
QR_conditions_over_time_based_on_Petoukhov_et_al

I sent that to one of the authors, which may have inspired the production of a different graphic but showing the same trend, for the current paper:

BvBgV8hIIAEBVDY

Look how recent this phenomenon is. It is now, current, happening at sub-climate time scales. We don’t know enough about it, and we need to address it.

I asked Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the paper’s author and the scientists I was exchanging graphics with, to elaborate on the signficance of this recent study and to explain why it is important. He told me, “Previous studies have failed to find trends linked to global warming which could explain the recent spate of unusual extreme events. For example they have looked at trends in the occurrence of blocking or in the speed of the jet stream. But you need to know what you are looking for in order to find it. The planetary wave equation reveals what the resonance conditions are which make the waves grow really big, causing extreme weather. So we knew what trends to look for.”

I also asked him if severe weather events post dating the end of his study period conform to expectations as Rossby Wave events. “I can’t say for sure because we have not done the analysis for the very latest data yet – studies like this take time,” he told me. “But I suspect there have been more resonance events. They are not necessarily constrained to July and August either. The record flooding in May/June 2013 in Germany of the Danube and Elbe rivers, for example, was associated with large planetary wave amplitudes. Dim Coumou has assembled a young research team now that will work on further data analysis.”

Damian Carrington has written up this research at the Guardian, and notes:

Prof Ted Shepherd, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, UK, but not involved in the work, said the link between blocking patterns and extreme weather was very well established. He added that the increasing frequency shown in the new work indicated climate change could bring rapid and dramatic changes to weather, on top of a gradual heating of the planet. “Circulation changes can have much more non-linear effects. They may do nothing for a while, then there might be some kind of regime change.”

Shepherd said linking the rise in blocking events to Arctic warming remained “a bit speculative” at this stage, in particular because the difference between temperatures at the poles and equator is most pronounced in winter, not summer. But he noted that the succession of storms that caused England’s wettest winter in 250 years was a “very good example” of blocking patterns causing extreme weather during the coldest season. “The jet stream was stuck in one position for a long period, so a whole series of storms passed over England,” he said.

I’m not convinced that the seasonality of Arctic Amplification matter much here, and I note that we’ve not looked closely at the Antarctic. Also, “blocking patterns” and QR waves are not really the same exact thing. They may be different features of the same overall phenomenon, but QR Rossby Waves are a more general phenomenon, and a “blocking” is something that happens, probably, when that phenomenon interacts with certain kinds of storms.

It occurs to me that there is a huge difference between Agwaaqrarwaww happening randomly in space vs. blocking and steering waves setting up for long periods of time over the same place, and appearing in those places typically. Like Godzilla. We know that over time Godzilla will usually destroy Tokyo and not London, because Godzialla, while sometimes random, is usually geographically consistant. Can we expect Rossby Waves to usually causae drought in California, flooding on the Front Range or Rockies, and drenching rains in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region, for example? I asked Stefan about that as well.

“We have not looked at this aspect yet, but the recent paper by Screen and Simmonds has indeed found such a preference of the wave troughs and crests to sit in certain locations.

Ruh Roh.

Hurricane Arthur May Be Category Two On Contact With North Carolina Tonight.

Uncategorized, , , ,

The Hurricane may (or may not) directly strike the Outer Banks.) I’ve updated the title of the post to update concern that Hurricane Arthur has a much increased chance of directly striking coastal regions in North Carolina. Scroll down to the most recent update below to find out more. I’m adding updates to a single post rather than writing new posts because I’m almost out of paper for blog posts. No, not really, it does not work that way. I’m doing this as an experiment in keeping things organized, especially handy-dandy images of the process unfolding.

The previously mentioned tropical low pressure system is now classified as an official “Tropical Depression” which is not very impressive. The winds are 30 knots, it is not that well organized, it is not huge, it is off shore (near Florida).

But models suggest that the depression will develop into a tropical storm and eventually a Category I hurricane and move north roughly parallel to the Atlantic coast. It will be called Tropical Storm Arthur, then Hurricane Arthur.

At present, there is a better than even chance that tropical storm force or stronger winds will be on shore in North Carolina, though there may be effects in South Carolina and Florida. Georgia too, but the Peach Tree state sits back west a bit so the chance of tropical storm level winds there is reduced. As the storm winds up and starts moving North, Florida will get a bit of a side long blow as well.

Here’s the key timing, according to current forecasts which are subject to revision:

<li>The storm will be off the Georgia coast (a long way) in the early morning hours (2AM) of Thursday, as a tropical storm. Then, 24 hours later, the center of the storm will be very close to or on the North Carolina coast and it will be a hurricane.  That is a very fast moving storm, and the details are going to matter a lot especially to the people in North Carolina.  It will be a low-end Category One hurricane at this point.  </li>

<li>At this point the storm is expected to speed up even more, and to become a mid-level Category One hurricane when it is off the coast f New York/New Jersey, but pretty far out to sea, over the next 24 hours.  It will then speed up even more and by 2 AM Eastern Time Sunday morning, <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/115506.shtml?5-daynl#contents">if the models hold</a>, "...the cyclone will merge with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in extratropical transition." </li>

All indications are that the conditions for formation of this hurricane are favorable, and the National Hurricane Center is saying that the models are in close agreement. The main uncertainty seems to be how east-vs west the track will be, which will make all the difference in the world to the Outer Banks. A few miles here or there can make the difference between hurricane force vs tropical storm force winds striking the coast. There is the difference of a full-on landfall vs. grazing the coast at stake as well. The landfall probably won’t happen, but it could. But do remember, a hurricane is not its own eye. Read this to find out what I mean by that.

UPDATE Tuesday 11:00 AM Central

The storm has been officially named and its name is Arthur.

Organization of the storm has improved and sustained winds are 33 knots at Grand Bahama Island, in a part of the storm that is not the strongest. Arthur is not drifting Northwest, as predicted by models. There is no significant change in the forecast but the official forecast:

Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT41 KNHC 011502
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.

After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.

145625W_NL_sm

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

UPDATE 4 PM Central

Apparently the Hurricane Hunters went in to take a closer look at Arthur and enough unexpectedly strong turbulence that they had to change altitude to avoid getting jostled around too much. The Hurricane Hunters. Had to avoid turbulence. Must have been pretty bad. Anyway, they upgraded the wind speeds for the storm to 45 knots, and the forecast has been upgraded as well, but without much change.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
210553W5_NL_sm

UPDATE Wed 9: AM Central Time

Arthur has strengthened over night and has a large area of 45-50 kt winds in it’s northeast and east quadrants. The central pressure is falling. So the intensity fo the storm is now set at 50kt. This is pretty much exactly on the button for yesterday’s forecasts, so Arthur is behaving as expected with respect to strength.

There are competing strengthening and weakening factors and the storm is a bit lopsided, so future strengthening may be delayed. But, perhaps more important, the sea surface in the area is warm, as expected with global warming, and the vertical wind sheer is minimal, which is counter to expectations of global warming. THEREFORE THERE IS NO GLOBAL WARMING. Only kidding about that last part.

Anyway, at 6 AM central time the NWS predicted that Arthur will be a hurricane this time tomorrow morning or mid day. So look for that event on July 3rd.

The storm has started to move definitively north, and has sped up, but is only going 5 mph. Earlier forecasts had the track moved a bit east off shore, the latest forecast has moved the track back west again. Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of North and South Carolina. Expect warnings by late PM today.

It is probably the case that the most important things that will happen with Arthur are severe winds general storminess in the vicinity, erosion along the outer banks, and storm surges along the coast west of the barrier beaches. The main concern for long term may be loss of some of the barrier beach real estate. But, if the main area of the hurricane stays off shore, there may be minimal major damage. Or, if the hurricane moves more to the west, this could be bad in spots. Note that it has been a long time since a hurricane has struck in this area. That makes for certain increased vulnerabilities, as well as some decreased ones (the latter with respect to erosion).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 28.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 29.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 30.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 34.2N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 40.0N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 46.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Screen Shot 2014-07-02 at 8.55.01 AM

UPDATE: Wednesday 11AM NWS hurricane center discussion notes that the storm’s intensity remains at 50 knots and the storm is moving northward at 6 knots. Arthur is expected to accelerate shortly. The storm looks like a real tropical storm in satellite views now:

vis-l

UPDATE Wed 5:00PM

Arthur is strengthening as expected and with the latest information is being upgraded to 60 Kt strength. Here’s the forecasted strength and position:

INIT 02/2100Z 29.7N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 30.7N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 32.4N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 37.2N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 43.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 49.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z 53.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

The graphic at the top of the post shows the estimated path. Here’s what the Atlantic looks like right now:

vis-l

Arthur will probably be a hurricane by morning.

UPDATE 12:30 pm
Arthur will probably be an official hurricane over the next hour or two and it’s predicted track, sublet to change, has shifted west to actually impact the Carolina coast.

UPDATE July 3rd, 8AM central

Arthur is now officially a hurricane.

Current intensity is set at 65 kt. As has been the case for the last few days, this is exactly as forecast. Remember some earlier recent hurricanes when the forecasts seemed to be very difficult? It is almost like Arthur is some sort of False Flag operation arranged by the NWS to make them look good. Thanks Obama!

Anyway, Arthur is expected to gradually intensify as it passes over warm water but then very quickly dissipate into extratropical vagueness perhaps by Saturday morning. The center of the storm should move very close to the Outer Banks in North Carolina during the night tonight. So tonight and early tomorrow, on the 4th, people in the Outer Banks area will be experiencing a hurricane, though the eye may or amy not make landfall. Soon thereafter Arthur will speed up and head out into the Atlantic.

80+ mph winds, heavy rains, and moderate storm surge will be the main threat.

Arthur is already pretty much hugging the coast:

vis-l (1)

Here’s a radar image from Wunderground.com:

Screen Shot 2014-07-03 at 8.21.37 AM

Here is the estimated track of the storm. It is quite possible that the eye will never make landfall, but the core of the hurricane, where winds may be sustained at 85 mph, will:

Screen Shot 2014-07-03 at 8.24.18 AM

The National Weather service has a new highly experimental (as in you have to agree to not put too much faith into it before you look at it, so pretend you just did that) tool showing possible storm surge flooding in a warning area. This indicates widespread areas of potential flooding up tot 3 feet above ground at a conservative liklihood (about 10%). In other words, if you are in an are indicated for a 3 foot surge, there is a 1 in ten chance it will happen. That might seem like a very low probability. But, standing there in a storm surge is probably more likely to lead to death than having a person 100 feet away empty a revolver at you. (I have no idea if that is even close but I’m trying to make the point: You want to err on the side of caution when it comes to the actual Atlantic Ocean temporarily taking up residence where you actually are).

There are smaller areas of greater than 3 feet flooding. These are mostly within the outer banks (Thanks Outer Banks! Without you these numbers will be higher!) especially on the lee side of the banks (Today’s quiz: Why would that be?) but also across large flat areas along the coast, mainly in wildlife refuges and such.

Screen Shot 2014-07-03 at 8.30.25 AM

Most of the likely flooded areas are places where it is already low and wet. Comparing the NWS information to settlement maps I don’t see a lot of risk to people’s homes, etc. but if you live in the area you will want to be super aware.

The real big problem, as I see it, is the possibility of significant erosion to coastal wetlands which will have negative effects on regional wildlife for a few years, and also, will increase vulnerability to future erosion if another storm comes along before natural processes of restoration have developed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 31.3N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

UPDATE 3 July 1PM Central

Hurricane Arthur continues to grow stronger with peak winds over 80 knots or higher. The official intensity is currently set at 80 knots (at 11 AM eastern) and rising. The storm will be a Category Two Hurricane prior to land fall or close grazing of the North Carolina coast. This is an increase in what was forecasted earlier.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 32.4N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Compared to the satellite image above, the storm is closer to the coast and farther north:
vis-l (2)

Here is the expected track:
Screen Shot 2014-07-03 at 1.04.05 PM

Notice that the eye of the storm is projected to pass right over the Outer Banks, but Arthur could easily pass farther to the West (less likely to the east).

Minnesota's Amazing June Weather

Uncategorized, , , , , ,

We are breaking all sorts of records here in Minnesota this June, and not the records for drought (or, for once, cold). It has been raining and storming a lot, and not just in one place as happens now and then. The rains have been widespread and intensive. The flood levels of most rivers are not breaking records because those are set in the earlier Spring snow-melt driven flooding, but this time of year all the creeks, kills, and rivers should be receding not rising.

The situation is so interesting and important that our local public TV political weekly put the weather on top of the show and interviewed meteorologist Paul Douglas about it. Starting just after 3 minutes. Note especially his very important comment at 7:13!!!:

But don’t worry, we’ll be fine.

Minnesota's Current Weather Disaster — Don't worry we'll be fine.

Uncategorized, , , , , ,

I woke up this morning to find about a dozen reports on my iPad Damage app indicating trees down and hail damage in many communities from Mankato to Edina, south of the Twin Cities. More of the same. We have been having severe weather for about a month now, or a bit less. One day in late May, Julia and I were taking pictures of people driving too fast through the lake that formed in front of our house form a major downpour. Early in that storm we witnessed a ground strike not too far away. A short while after that an ambulance came screaming by our house, coming from the direction of the ground strike to the hospital just south of us. Later we heard on the news that a woman at a little league game (which, frankly, should have been cancelled) was struck and transported to the hospital … that was certainly her. This morning, Mankato was flooded, a day or two ago a woman was rescued from her car that was eventually swept away by a river that does not normally exist. Flooding up on the Canadian Border has been epic. The entire state is under a Meteorological Siege.

Not exactly a Turn Round Don't Drown situation, but perhaps a Slow Down So As To Not Crack Your Engine Block situation .
Not exactly a Turn Round Don’t Drown situation, but perhaps a Slow Down So As To Not Crack Your Engine Block situation .
Yet, somehow, CNN has not taken notice.

I believe that what is happening here is an expanded, intensified version of what we usually get around this time of year. The Norther Plains has storms in the late Spring and early Summer for various meteorological reasons. But this Spring, the jet stream continues to experience it’s kinkyness, not the good kind of kinkyness, and we are having stalled weather systems. So, instead of having a storm front move through the area every few days, we have a big huge stormy thing hanging over us for weeks on end.

This is a similar phenomenon, most likely, to what brought epic floods to Central Europe, the UK, Calgary, and Colorado over the last two years. But, since we have no mountains to speak of and the state is full of more swamp and pond than arroyo and river, we don’t have the same kind of result. The rain that fell over the last 24 hours in southern Minnesota, falling in Colorado’s front range would have wiped out towns and people would be missing for days. Here, we have different results. Same weather phenomenon (more or less) likely caused by the same changes to the environment resulting form global warming (most likely) but spread out a bit in time and space so it becomes, rather than a single big huge national news story, this string of little local news stories (listed by day of month for June):

The interaction between the nature of events and the nature of news journalism certainly is interesting. We couldn’t stay out of the news when the Polar Vortex was visiting. Now, we are being ignored in all our glorious wetness. That is reasonable … so far this weather has not caused the death and destruction of epic flooding in mountain areas, and we are lucky that we’ve not had significant tornadoes here – the twisters are staying to the south of us, just. But it is interesting that we suffer the weather of countless tiny drops Minnesota style. In silence. With the occasional stern look. We will be making some hot dish now, out of season, but it is our comfort food. Don’t worry, we’ll be fine.

ADDED:

Here’s a few tweeted pics from the NWS Twin Cities:

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 3.50.51 PM

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 3.52.23 PM

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 3.53.17 PM

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 3.53.49 PM

US Drought Over Time

Uncategorized, , , , , ,

I made a movie you might enjoy. There may be something else out there like this, probably better than this one, but it is still cool. I downloaded all the PDF files from the US Drought Monitor archives, using the version of the connected US that has only the year, month, and day on the graphic. Then I slapped them in iMovie and sped the animation up by 800% over the default 1 sec. per pic. I do not have today’s rather horrifying image on it, which I’ve placed above.

Here’s the movie:

500,000 people evacuate massive 2-week long flood; 40+ dead.

Uncategorized, , , , , ,

Excessive warmth attributable to global warming and a stalled weather system, also attributable to global warming, have caused a weather system in over southeast China to dump rain since May 12th. A million people are in the impacted area, ahlf of them have had to move or have been rescued, and the 2-6 inches of daily rain continues. 25,000 homes have been destroyed.

This area has recieved huge investments over the last few decades, since a huge 1998 storm killed thousands and caused 26 billion dollars in damage. They now fear that the present flooding will be as bad.

Here’s some video (with some out of date information on casualties and damages):

Sources:

Massive, Two Week Long China Flood Sends Half a Million Fleeing, Destroys More Than 25,000 Homes

Half a million evacuated as China braces for more flooding