The NASA GISS global surface measurement for September is out. I don’t know off hand if there are corrections for earlier months. The data for September show the month as the same as the earlier month, 0.81 degrees C anomaly.

The current best estimate of the warming of the Earth’s surface from anthropogenic global warming, using the NASA data and a 12 month running mean, looks like this:

Looking at just the first months of the year (for each year) to estimate the position of the present year as a record breaker (or not) we get this:

Word on the street is that the present month, October, is very warm. I don’t think October 2015 is going to end up being the warmest month on record, but I think it is likely to be in the top few ever. Given that, and the nearness to the end of the year, it is now extremely likely that 2015 will be the warmest year of the instrumental record.

See also this different way of depicting year to date warming.

The two graphs above will be available on the X Blog where you can download a higher resolution version.