I’ll be jotting notes here. Feel free to jot notes in the comments.
Bernie Sanders re-elected
6:22 PM Central: Virginia reporting good numbers for Obama. Larger turnouts than 2008 in VA.
6:54 PM Central: Senate: 30 DEM seats called, 37 GOP seats.
Leaving the polling place today, there was a couple behind me. She said, “Well, that didn’t take long.” He said “And it was easy. I have a system.” “What’s the system.” “If the person is an incumbent, I don’t vote for them.”
Then, me, in my head “… idiot …”
More money spent this year in Minnesota’s 8th district than in all races in that district ever to date, combined, including mayorial, county, and EVERYTHING and we are only slightly exaggerating. That’s up on the Iron Range.
West Va called for Romney
Republicans lose about 1.7% of the vote every presidential election year because they are the white party and that’s the loss rate of whiteosity in the US.
Current Electoral Vote: Romney 153, Obama 123
Called Races:
OBAMA 79
Vermont CALLED Obama
DC CALLED Obama
Illinous CALLED Obama
Maine CALLED Obama
Maryland CALLED Obama
Massachusetts CALLED Obama
Connecticut CALLED Obama
Delaware CALLED Obama
Rhode Island CALLED Obama
New Jersey CALLED Obama
New York CALLED Obama
Michigan CALLED Obama
ROMNEY 82
Georgia CALLED Romney
Indiana CALLED Romney
Kentucky CALLED Romney
South Carolina CALLED Romney
West Virginia CALLED Romney
Oklahoma CALLED Romney
Alabama CALLED Romney
Mississippi CALLED Romney
Tennessee CALLED Romney
Arkansas CALLED Romney
Texas CALLED Romney
Lousiana CALLED Romney
Kansas CALLED Romney
Nebraska CALLED Romney
North Dakota CALLED Romney
South Dakota CALLED Romney
Wyoming CALLED Romney
Leaning/Trending:
Florida: Leaning Obama
New Hampshire: Leaning Obama
North Carolina Obama
Ohio, less than one percent, Romney doing STRONG
Virginia, Romney ahead
I actually don’t like states being called at 1 percent or less of the vote counted, even if those states are almost certainly going to go a certain way. Makes a mockery of the system. I suppose not doing it would make a mockery of statistics.
Which reminds me of an argument I had today with a young man who does not understand data or statistics or inference or anything. Imagine the following situation: My neighbor goes out into his yard every now and then and mows his lawn. I make the assertion to you that I believe that he does so when he thinks his grass is too long and needs to be cut. Now, here’s the question: What is the chance that it is true that he really does believe his grass is too long and this is what motivates him to cut it? Now, alternatively, I tell you that I went over to him while he was mowing the lawn and asked him why he was doing that. I report to you that he said “The grass got long, that’s why I’m cutting it.”
Now, here’s the question: Do you think he belived the grass was too long in either of these cases? How mush stock would you put in my guess regarding his motivations, vs my reporting to you what he said his motivation was.
The young man insisted that my guess as to my neighbor’s motivation was totally unusable as data, there were thousands of alternative reasons he might be mowing his lawn, and my assumption that he is cutting his lawn becauase he believes it to be too long is “confirmation bias.” Meanwhile, he claimed that reporting the man’s answer to the question about his motivation was solid unquestioned data about his motivations. What do you think?
OK, back to Election 2012!
7:00 PM Central PBS coverage is starting.
15 states are closed. I’ll put the new results above
PBS says they have a very nifty “multichannel” live stream thingie. But, everhone on the planet just tried to access it and it appears to be dead.
BIGGEST current news, Virginia extended poll hours, turnout HUGE, reporting delayed.
OTHER BIGGEST CURRENT NEWS Ohio early voting will be reported at 8:30 local
2 out of 5 Romney supporters, generally, in the polling over recent months supported Romney mainly to beat Obama (the black guy) not to support Romney.
7:20 PM CENTRAL Bill Nelson won in Florida for Senate, the Republicans were hoping to take that but didn’t. But overall the Senate race data isn’t interesting yet. The guy running against Nelson did not do well because he did not run well. (Nelson had replaced Katherine Harris, if you want to beak out in a cold sweat)
7:40 Chris Murphey, Dem, beats McMahon in Connecticut for Senate. That was a competitive race. That was earlier Lieberman’s seat, so this is sort of a Dem pickup.
Exit polls in Ohio: People favor auto bailout.
Virginia: Voter turnout is AMAZING … some people waited five hours to vote. The board of election had delayed release of results. People are still in line nearly two hours after polls closed. Maybe.
8:00 North Carolina, too close to call, could go either way. Romney always claimed a lock, maybe not.
8:10 PM Central … Missouri Senate … Remember Senator Legitimate Rape Guy Aitkin? Hmmm. thought there was going to be some reporting on that but I’m only seeing wild speculation. This might force me to tell you my one Missouri story….. but prob. not.
Competitive Penn Dem Senate race, Republicans had hopes for, goes Dem.
CBS News projects that the Republicans will maintain control of the house.
Obama gets Pennsylvania!!!
8:25 PM
Senate races: Pennsylvania, Bob Casey returns
Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Dem incumbant
Amy Klobuchar wins by a huge landside
Kirsten Gillibrand wins, incumbant Dem.
Ted Teapartier Kruz Republican, new senator, replacing a Democratic woman, I think.
8:30
Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio.
8:40PM Central
Romney must get some combination of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. I like maybe all three. Not looking good. He’s still winning, though.
Elizabeth Warren wins in Massachusetts. FUCK YAH TEDDY!!!!
Joe Kennedy III to the HOuse from Mass
Romney lost in MA, where he was gov. He lost in Mich, where he is from and his dad was gov.Now, he lost NH, home of his vacation home
And now, for some state and local results… maybe …
Oh never mind. No results.
9:55 We’ve got about 13 percent of the votes counted in Minnesota with a lot of conservative counties not represented yet, but the two constitutional amendments … gay marriage and voter ID … are not doing well. They are both showing a less than 50% result (needed to be passed) and are actually being voted down by a majority that is voting “No”
Also, North Carolina just called for Romney
Obama wins California, Hawaii,
10:14: Obama has been called as winner by CNN. On PBS, however, they won’t interrupt an interview with R.E. to celebrate. Strange.