I’m trying to figure out how many Senate seats, and which ones, will switch from Republican to Democratic in November 2016.

At present, 54 Senator caucus with the Republicans, and 46 caucus with the Democrats (two of those are Independant).

We should be shooting for a good majority of 61, just to be safe. That means fifteen Republicans have to go, to result in a 39 to 61 mix. To get a simple majority, only five Republicans have to be replaced, to produce a 49 to 51 mix. So, we should be working for replacing fifteen but hoping to replace at least five.

A perusal of The Internet provides a list of Republicans and open seats that seem to have a chance of a Democratic takeover. (Importantly and worth noting, not many Democrats are at risk, but Michael Bennet of Colorado may be. Also worth noting is that Harry Reid’s seat in Nevada seems more likely to go GOP, according to some sources).

Here’s the list:

Arizona: John McCain. Challenged by Ann Kirkpatrick
Arkansas: John Boozman. Challenged by Conner Eldridge
California: Open Seat. Kamala Harris
Florida: Open Seat. Alan Grayson
Illinois: Mark Kirk. Challenged by Tammy Duckworth
Iowa: Charles Grassley. Challenged by Patty Judge
Kentucky: Rand Paul. Challenged by Adam Edleen
Maryland: Open seat? Donna Edwards
Missouri: Roy Blunt. Challenged by Jaoon Kander
Nevada: Open Seat. Catherine Cortez Masto
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte. Challenged by Maggie Hassan
North Carolina: Richard Burr. Challenged by Deborah Ross
Ohio: Rob Portman. Challenged by Ted Strickland
Pennsylvania: Patrick Toomey. No challenger yet
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson. Challenged by Russ Feingold

So, what’s missing? What’s wrong with this list? How would you rank it?