Bottom line: In the popular vote, Obama will win over Romney by a surprisingly small margin, if he wins.

People generally think Obama is going to win, as per this graphic:

But the actual “I’m voting for X” numbers are 50% Obama, 47% Romney. That is within the margin of error.

The poll, which is here, indicates that while the numbers are close, Obama’s support is slightly (but only slightly) more enthusiastic than Romney’s. Obama has a good approval number compared to Romney’s but for some reason people, who are apparently all idiots, think that Romney will do a better job than Obama at handling the economy, even though a strong majority accredit Obama with understanding the economic problems the country is having.