It has been a minute.
We are all the way up to the letter “E” without much of interest happening in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, but we now have Erin.
Erin is a tropical storm but is expected to become a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane.
It is way to early to say with much certainty, but mot models have Erin trending north of the leeward and windward islands, then curving north. Some of the northward tracks have the storm dissipating in the north atlantic, but most have it running into something, but probably as a degrades storm. New England and Eastern Canada are the most common target if it goes anywhere near land.
But there are some models that leave us hanging, and the chance of the storm entering the Caribbean or grazing the Carolina are not zero. Like this:
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