Eschew the binary thinking
We all know that we are better off not falling into the trap of worshiping the binary. That is of course not always true, there are perfectly good binaries out there. But there is a kind of binary thinking that many fall into that isn’t recognized as binary thinking but is, and it can be damaging to our collective understanding of politics.
Here are two competing alternative statements. One is true, the other is not true (hey, there’s one of those binaries!):
The polling sucked in 2016, but the polling in 2020 was OK.
The polling in 2016 was OK, but the polling in 2020 sucked.
Most people remember the shock and horror of a Trump victory in 2016, and it is very common for people to claim that the polling was bad that year. Meanwhile, the polling in 2020 seemed to suggest a Biden win, and there was a Biden win, so therefore the polling in 2020 was fine.
This is a pernicious falsehood and this kind of falsehood is based on incorrect binary thinking. The binary in this case is who wins and who loses an election (our candidate won vs our candidate lost). This binary ignores very important numbers and changes in numbers underlying a victory or loss.
Here’s some data:
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