Following on what I talked about here, we are starting to see a pattern in the Democratic primary. Patterns change, so watch for the change. But right now, according to recent polling by Morning Consult, this is turning into a Biden-Sanders two person race, with Elizabeth Warren the consistent third placer, but at a level that might exclude her from picking up delegates in several states because of the 15% rule (see this for more info on that).
That poll shows Biden in a moderately comfortable first place, but with Sanders a little behind, then Warren in a close third for Super Tuesday voters and nationally. Styer surges strongly ahead of Warren in early primary states. If that turns out to be a thing (and since he paid for it, I suppose Steyer will get it?) then that might down-shift Warren on Super Tuesday because of mo-jection* logic. Buttigieg and Bloomberg variously perform just below those noted so far.
Check out the source cited above, but here are the graphics for your handy review:
- Momentum based projection.
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Reported in this morning’s (January 29) The Boston Globe:
WHO WON THE LAST 24 HOURS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RACE?
– James Pindell
” Winner: Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont
“Sanders seems to be peaking in the Democratic presidential contest at exactly the right time — and his rivals appear dumbfounded. … A poll on Tuesday showed Sanders with a solid lead in the biggest prize of all: delegate-rich California. Sanders led Warren there 26 percent to 20 percent.
“Also on Tuesday, Sanders announced that he will begin television advertising in California and the other major Super Tuesday state, Texas … so far, nothing seems to be stopping his momentum.
“Even though Sanders has been stuck in Washington unable to campaign, he is still a winner.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/01/29/metro/who-won-last-24-hours-presidential-race/?p1=HP_Feed_ContentQuery
“Patterns change, so watch for the change” – GL
Insert here: “FLUID” emoji (if there is one)
Those recent two polls, showing Sadners beating Biden by 2:1, are from KQED/NPR and Berkeley IGS. Those seem like reasonable sources.
I don’t disagree. But let me impulsively add an editorial comment that is off-topic for Biden/Sanders/Warren and yet linked to another of your posts on which I’ve recently commented. It’s more or less a personal reply, Greg, to you:
At THIS point, frankly, I find the Democratic race harder to predict on a week-to-week basis than the unfolding drama of the Wuhan coronavirus – which, for all its complex dimensions, nonetheless seems to be playing out according to a script you and I virtually memorized during our training in evolutionary biology, human behavioural biology, and (to the extent we were both fortunate enough to be exposed to it) epidemiology.
Add in my undergraduate majors in (predominantly cultural) Anthropology, Chinese language & history, and East Asian Studies – and I can (believe me, without bragging – I often find myself wishing I didn’t know all this shit) re-state my point thusly:
Human psychology (for all the sophistication of modern medicine, and once unimaginable alterations to the worldwide communication landscape) has not changed a whit. This is not to say that there aren’t pockets of scientific and political literacy that can potentially – POTENTIALLY, now there’s the rub – override our irrational cognitive underpinnings.
But as you (writing) and we (commenting at) this Blog must painfully realize – when it comes to so much that is unfolding politically, epidemiologically, and above all EMOTIONALLY – willing or not, we now find ourselves passengers on a time machine travelling at light speed back to the era of the Black Death.
Can’t say as I’m particularly enjoying the ride,
“YOU RANKED THE DEMOCRATS: TWO DID MUCH BETTER THAN HOW WE SEE IT”
– The Washington Post (OpEd 1-31-2020)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/31/we-asked-you-your-2020-ranking-here-it-is/?arc404=true&utm_campaign=wp_week_in_ideas&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_ideas
____________
The Ranking –
Three points were awarded to voters’ first choice, two to their second and one to their third.:
• CHALLENGER
• TOTAL POINTS
• CHANGE FROM OUR LAST RANKING
1. Joe Biden
22,481
—
2. Elizabeth Warren
16,715
UP 1
3. Amy Klobuchar
12,230
UP 2
4. Bernie Sanders
10,126
DOWN 2
5. Pete Buttigieg
10,056
DOWN 1
6. Mike Bloomberg
7,918
—
7. Andrew Yang
2,475
—
8. Michael Bennet
1,218
ADDS TO RANKING
9. Tom Steyer
1,012
DOWN 1
10. Deval Patrick
405
ADDS TO RANKING
____________
From the Annotations –
On JOE BIDEN:
After all the shouting is done, Americans love mediocrity. McDonald’s isn’t popular because it’s good; it’s popular because you know what you’re getting. The same can be said for Biden. The passionate minority might prefer artisanal cheese and extreme progressive politics, but at the end of the day, fast food and moderate liberalism are going to win.
— Bob in Alexandria, Va.
Biden’s closing argument, in both the primaries and the general election, should be: “Joe Biden — because we’d all like to be able to ignore the news for weeks at a time.”
— Doug in Mequon, Wis.
You can tell Dems are green; we’re recycling Biden.
— Anonymous
On ELIZABETH WARREN:
This could be a 1980 election. Then, facing a feeble incumbent, Republicans went far right with Ronald Reagan. Forty years later, we have another weak one. Democrats can go left. Warren is the best candidate to forge a fired-up coalition that can win.
— David in New Haven, Conn.
“People don’t vote for what they want. They vote for who they are,” a Post piece proclaimed in August 2018. In the electoral college states that matter, Warren and Sanders are not who the voters are — not even close.
— John in Gallatin Gateway, Mont.
People trust Biden because of who he is, not because of his ideology. People trust Bernie because of his ideology, not because of who he is. People trust Warren because of both.
— Bliss in Cambridge, Mass.
On AMY KLOBUCHAR:
It is one thing to lead President Trump in polls at this stage in the campaign; it is quite another to measure up when the Trump campaign and its allies open fire. Klobuchar may have the least vulnerability to negative ads of any of the leading candidates.
— J. Atkins in Macon, Ga.
Klobuchar has been “the one” since the very beginning, but, like with the overlooked smart girl in a teen rom-com, it takes most people far too long to figure that out.
— Anonymous
On BERNIE SANDERS:
Sanders, though not a Democrat, is the soul of the Democratic Party. He is what Democrats were when I grew up. The Clintons brought the party to the center, and America is now paying for the inequality it wrought. I put my money on Bernie.
— Pat in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
Most who believe Bernie can flip rural Trump-voting independents have never lived in the areas that flipped from Obama to Trump. My many years of living in the rural Midwest tell me they have it wrong: Those rural voters like Bernie just fine, but there’s little chance they’ll favor him more than certain competitors over Trump. The path to victory runs through the suburbs, where other Democrats have a better shot.
— Bob in Indiana
In Britain’s recent election, the two principal opponents were an awkwardly coiffed bully who thwarted democratic norms, and a taciturn, fringe 70-something socialist beloved by the young for his authenticity. The bully with the bad haircut won, and I kept thinking, “Thank God this could never happen in America!”
— James in Los Angeles
On PETE BUTTIGIEG:
The only certainty this cycle is uncertainty. The perfect pendulum swing would mean a Sanders or Warren nomination, but I’m predicting that the highly educated, boy-faced gay millennial grabs the nod to surprise everyone on both sides of the aisle.
— Joshua in Sugar Hill, N.H.
I have a soft spot for candidates who wield the English language with precision and also know stuff. Thus, Mayor Pete. Biden qualifies on knowing stuff, though I admit his relationship to language is strained. Klobuchar? She’s like meatloaf — uninspired but reassuring.
— William in Maplewood, N.J.
On MIKE BLOOMBERG:
Bloomberg is a more competent version of Biden. If Trump fears Biden, he will be even more miserable battling Bloomberg.
— David in Roswell, Ga.
If I could list my first choice as “Bloomberg’s money,” I would. I’m ready to see what that amount can do when spent trying to elect whoever actually becomes the nominee.
— Addie in Winchester, Va.
Bloomberg is secretly reaching voters where they are: watching television.
— Anonymous
On ANDREW YANG:
Technology is taking over. The old-school, pro-union Democrat is not going to be relevant to millennials and beyond. What it means to have economic security and a good job is changing, and the party needs to change with it. Only Yang is doing so, and he has the energized base to show for it.
— Katie in San Diego
How many Republicans does it take for a Democrat to win in 2020? Only the ones who support Yang, and there are a ton of them.
— David in San Diego
On MICHAEL BENNET:
Bennet is calm, thoughtful, honest and humble. In other words, he doesn’t stand a chance.
— Anonymous
On DEVAL PATRICK:
Patrick is the true heir to the Obama coalition. He has a track record of achievement in government and the private sector, he’s got a strong vision for America’s spot on the global stage, and he can activate minority communities to show up to vote.
— Norm in Wellesley, Mass.
Deval who?
— James in Lexington, Mass.
On EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING ELSE:
Must one appear on “Dancing With the Stars” to get name recognition in this country?
— Anonymous
The race to the left feels like that one kid running to the opposite team’s soccer goal. You’re proud the kid had a goal but discouraged they didn’t listen to the crowd screaming at them to go the other way.
— Catherine in Los Angeles
Can’t we all agree this was more fun when Williamson was in the race?
— Clark in Vienna, Va.
Pundits miss a lot because they’re always talking instead of listening.
— Anonymous