If the current large wet spot in the norther Gulf does develop into a named storm, it will end up being one of the stranger storms we’ve seen.
This feature began as a depression over land, not over the sea. It then moved south over the Gulf, where it sits off the coast. Several different models have it developing to something wind wind speeds of 60 knots or more over the next several hours. The National weather service has it as a Category 1 hurricane by mid day Saturday. That is also when it is expected to push over the coast west of New Orleans.
If it becomes a named storm, it will be Barry, but it will be known as the Hurricane that Came Out of Nowhere, All of the Sudden.
Of great importance is the expected rainfall. The total rainfall potential puts all of Louisiana and large portions of Mississippi, parts of Missouri and bits of Texas at between 4 and 6 inches of rain, but most of Louisiana itself is likely to experience between 6 and 10 inches. Areas along the coast of Louisiana, including New Orleans, are likely to experience between 10 and 15 inches of rain, with spots possibly going up to 20 inches.
Flood surges will be just below levee height in the lower Mississippi.
I’ve been looking at the various spaghetti models, and they don’t vary much. This storm will curve up in to Louisiana, it will likely be a hurricane, and the only uncertainty really is exactly where the front right quadrant hits land. Most say west of NOLA but that may include NOLA itself.
Weather Underground has these two posts of interest:
New Orleans’ Achilles Heel: A Hurricane Storm Surge During a Mississippi River Flood?
PTC 2: A Major Flood Threat and Possible Hurricane Landfall in Louisiana
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