Donald Trump is never going to be thrown out of office by Congress. Here is what is going to happen. In November, between 30 and 50 seats in the House of Representatives will switch from red to blue. (I’ll have a more detailed and regularly updated prediction on that later on, but that’s my rough guess for now). That will turn the House Democratic, and they will be able to impeach. But in the Senate, there simply are not enough seats up for grabs to turn the Senate super-Blue. There is a pretty good chance that the majority will be Democratic. Or maybe not. But you need a super majority to convict and thus toss out an impeached POTUS.
Other than the occasional lip service, the Republicans in Congress have shown full loyalty to their leader, Trump. A few of them will vote to throw him out, but not enough. He’ll stay.
But, that doesn’t mean that you can’t go to an Impeachment Party on February 17th! Here is a press release from Need to Impeach:
More than 5,000 Impeachment-themed Parties Planned Nationwide on February 17
Parties to Mark Presidents’ Day and Call on Congress to Begin Trump Impeachment
(SAN FRANCISCO, February 8, 2018)—More than 5,000 people across the country have signed on to host a “Party to Impeach”—an initiative started by Need to Impeach Founder Tom Steyer to mobilize communities across the country and increase pressure on members of Congress to impeach Donald Trump.
The parties will be held on Saturday, Feb. 17—Presidents’ Day weekend—in every state across the country, demonstrating the Need to Impeach movement’s increasing reach, diversity, and strength. Since its launch on Oct. 20, nearly 4.6 million people have signed on to support the Need to Impeach movement, creating a digital army that political strategists call one of the most formidable forces in Democratic politics.
“Impeachment supporters across the country are gathering to send a clear message to all members of Congress: impeach Donald Trump now,” said Steyer. “Trump has more than met the standard for impeachment, and the only thing holding the process back are members of Congress focusing on partisan political considerations over the good of the country and the safety of Americans. If they do not answer the call for impeachment, voters will take note of that in November.”
Cities where parties will be hosted include: Chicago; Houston; San Diego; Las Vegas; Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Sacramento, Calif.; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; Portland, Ore.; Seattle; Detroit; Louisville, Ky.; San Antonio; Indianapolis; Miami; Tucson, Ariz.; Charlotte, N.C.; Dallas; Jacksonville, Fla.; Pittsburgh; Albuquerque, N.M.; Honolulu; and Salt Lake City. Steyer will attend parties being held in Philadelphia, including one hosted by Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Pa.).
Dozens of the country’s leading legal scholars have documented eight impeachable offenses committed by Trump, which—in addition to obstruction of justice—include abusing pardon power, violating the emoluments clause, conspiring with others to commit crimes against the United States, and undermining freedom of the press.
Congressional support for impeachment has also increased, with 66 members—eight more than a previous vote—recently voting in favor of removing Trump from office after he made racist comments while discussing immigration in January.
“We have sworn to protect the interests of those who elected us to serve,” said Rep. Evans. “Trump has far surpassed the standards for impeachment, putting the lives of all Americans at risk. I urge my colleagues to adhere to our Constitutional duties to safeguard the pillars of our democracy, along with our constituents’ well-being and safety.”
“Party to Impeach” host Lisa Levinski of Fairfax, Va., said: “I’ve had enough with the President’s abuses of power, clear obstruction of justice, and risky, erratic behavior. I’m planning this party to mobilize my community, build bridges between all of us who stand for safety and freedom, and to tell our elected officials: Stand up for us now, or you will soon be replaced by someone who will.”
Get more information and sign up here.
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Not disagreeing with you Greg but if the November rout turns into a massacre and if the impeachment parties are large and abundant the message may seep into enough GOP (and DINO) senators that it may be better to impeach and at least have a chance to hold on to their seats in 2020.
As someone external to the US I’m pleased to hear that there’s a movement of rational people who are active in promoting a grass-roots demand for confronting the unpresidential, inexcusable, and prima facie illegal/impeachable behaviour of Trump. As Greg notes though, it appears that the US Senate is going to be too-heavily peopled with recalcitrant arse-lickers who will sell their souls for the benefit of their donors, their friends, and/or their ideologies.
I hope that there’s a similar movement to draw to the senators’ attention that the whole of the US, the rest of the world, and history for centuries into the future are watching the Senate’s decisions, and how each individual is standing up to be measured and remembered. Each senator needs to understand that they are accountable to more than the short-term expedients of their cronies, and that they will be held to account for the consequences of their actions even long after they have left the Senate. And if shame and conscience cannot move the GOP senators to do the right thing, their capitulation and abrogation of duty should be so publicly carved in stone that the Republican party is destroyed for generations, if not forever.
Re Bernard J “the Republican party is destroyed for generations, if not forever.”
I think I understand (and share) the feeling that motivated that comment but there’s that old saying: Be careful what you wish for.”
As much as I dislike the present incarnation of the Republican Party, I would not like to see one party government by Democrats or anyone else. The founders of this Republic were intelligent and sophisticated enough to recognize the need for checks and balances and that should include political parties — although they apparently did not envision the flowering of such things in the 19th century and beyond.
We’ve had enough of the merely venal and wackos of various ideologies running the GOP. It’s past time it was taken over by people with more rational ideas than lackeying for the already-rich, science denial, eliminating the separation of church and state, redistricting for entirely political advantage, restricting voting (especially for minorities) for political advantage, etc.
Tyvor, I derive no satisfaction in the current degeneration of the Republican Party, for essentially the same reasons that you outline. Every country that operates as a functioning democracy needs at least two viable political groups in order to maintain integrity and direction. In fact there are many periods in history (and indeed in my own adult lifetime) where I’d have voted for the Republicans over the Democrats if I’d been a US citizen.
The GOP as it stands now though is the radical bastardised monster of the rabid ultra-right, and as you note it has no vision, logic, or objective philosophy that can lead the USA successfully through the rest of the 21st century and into the future beyond. It’s now merely a vampiric parasite on the nation, sucking the lifeblood for its own benefit, and all that will be left is a husk of the empire and stories of what once was, and was willfully thrown away. And like a vampire’s victims the followers of the GOP are lulled into unthinking, unaware dreams of their own making even as they’re being exsanguinated…
There are a few Republicans (a very few) that have integrity and wisdom, but the great unwashed rump of US society seems to have been inflamed with overweening self-interest and conspiracy theory to the point that they’ll not let reason back into the GOP fold, come what may. This is a disaster for the whole country, and indeed for the world.
Bernard, I hadn’t really thought of this before but maybe the saying “Life’s a bitch and then you die.” was meant to cheer us up after considering things such as the mess the U. S. is in. (And I’m not too sure where the UK & Canada are heading either.)