Update, MID PM Thursday
Nicole blew up to a category 4 storm by some reports, but I think was Category 3 at as it raked Bermuda.
As far as I can tell, Bermuda suffered 115+ mph winds,
The center of the storm was about 10 miles east of Bermuda (which is causing people to say, incorrectly, that the storm missed Bermuda by 10 miles, which is not true). Since the storm went to the right of the islands, things were not as bad as they could have been. But, Nicole is a very very powerful storm.
It will e a while before we get a bead on the damage there, but I’ve heard that power outages are widespread, and there is a lot of flooding and wind damage.
Original Post:
Hurricane Nicole became a named storm right around the time that Matthew emerged, and seemed to spend several days observing from the deep Atlantic. Now, The story has cycled through various levels of strength, but is now a major hurricane, a Category 3.
Nicole will probably directly affect Bermuda tomorrow. Bermuda gets a lot of hurricanes, and of all the island polities in the Atlantic, it seems most readily able to handle them. But, I don’t think there’s been a Category 3 hurricane center on or very near the island since Fabian in 2003. That was a very destructive storm with considerable damage and widespread inundation.
Nicole pushed the total accumulated cyclone energy for the Atlantic to a very high October level, passing the previous record of 1963.
Hurricane Nicole intensified into Cat 3 Hurricane on the evening of Oct 12 and is currently bearing down on Bermuda. Nicole marked the 3rd major hurricane of the North Atlantic season, qualifying 2016 as an above average hurricane season, and marking the most major hurricanes in a season since 2011. On Oct 12, Nicole also pushed the Atlantic’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy for October up to the most for any October since 1963. Nicole’s tremendous power and sustained strength are consistent with the observed trends in the Atlantic since the 1970’s. There is a significant risk that this trend is driven by global warming.
I suspect sea surface temperatures are behind the extra punch Nicole seems to have developed, and possibly, the storm’s long lifespan.
After punching Bermuda, Nicole will head out to sea, probably.
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