Reports are just coming in, and as if often the case, Trump is already being declared winner in some states. But the Democratic primaries are different … there are actually two candidates who get delegates instead of just one … so it takes a little longer to count up the votes.
As a reminder, these are my predictions for today’s primaries. I predict a Clinton win in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, but a Sanders win in Connecticut and Rhode Island.
However, I have less confidence in these predictions than usual because I think something is happening in the campaign. I think, given the devastating results in New York for Sanders, a certain percentage of would be Sanders supporters are going to have given up, or at least, will be less excited, and thus less likely to vote. Things are pretty close in these states, so a small effect like that can wipe out a small lead.
Democratic Primary Results:
The following table gives my predicted delegate counts for each race (on the left) and the outcome of today’s primaries, estimated by percentage of the popular vote, on the right.
The two candidates did about as well as projected by me, with Sanders actually doing very slightly better. Compared to the polls, however, Clinton may have done better than expected, depending on which polls you like.
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Probably ought to add the state names. Jus’ sayin’…
There ya go.. (Your modeling skill puts Nate Silver to shame, BTW.)
The Washington Post (Apr. 27, page A1) pointed out that, “… Sanders won in tiny Rhode Island, the only state where independents could vote in the Democratic contest.” So there, perhaps, his supporters were more likely to vote.
Bernie’s supporters went skydiving without parachutes…
“I’m an independent, and I want to elect an independent candidate!!”
“I’m sorry, you’re not registered to vote in this election. Move along…”
“No! I want to vote for Bernie!”
“You should have registered as a Democrat. It’s too late now. You can vote in the general election in November. Move along now.”
“But.. But.. But if I don’t get to vote for him now, he won’t be on the ballot in November!”
“Hmm… You should have thought about that earlier. Too bad. Now if you’ll excuse me…”